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Yang Zhen, Deputy Director of Northeast Asian Research Center, Shanghai University of Political Science and Law

The People's Liberation Army Daily recently published a heavyweight article titled "The Philippines' Infringement in the South China Sea Will Definitely Fail", criticizing and warning the Philippines' plot in the South China Sea. As the official newspaper of the Central Military Commission and the mouthpiece of the Party in the military, the position and attitude of its commentary articles are highly representative.

In recent years, the Philippines' erroneous claims to its rights and interests in the South China Sea have caused the Sino-Philippine maritime dispute to become a major issue in bilateral relations and an important issue in the regional security situation. During the administration of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippine government realized the harm of its provocations in the South China Sea and adopted rational policies, which led to the development of bilateral relations and the overall improvement of the situation in the South China Sea. However, after Marcos Jr. came to power, he did not hesitate to put his personal and family interests above the national interests of the Philippines and began to frequently provoke on the South China Sea issue.

In 2024 alone, the Philippines sent ships to intrude into China's Huangyan Island, Xianbin Reef and other waters several times. Entering August, the Philippines' provocations continued to increase: On August 19, Philippine Coast Guard ships No. 4410 and No. 4411 illegally entered the waters near Xianbin Reef in China's Nansha Islands without the permission of the Chinese government. The Chinese Coast Guard took control measures against the Philippine ships in accordance with the law. After that, the Philippine ship No. 4410 ignored China's repeated solemn warnings and deliberately collided with China's 21551 boat, which was carrying out normal rights protection and law enforcement, in an unprofessional and dangerous manner, resulting in a collision.

Why does the Philippines go back on its word and keep provoking disputes? There are several main reasons:

First of all, Marcos Jr. considered his personal and family interests. Although the Philippines adopts a Western democratic system, due to geographical and historical reasons, family politics is the main theme of Philippine politics. According to data, Marcos Jr.'s father served as the President of the Philippines from December 30, 1965 to February 25, 1986, and ruled the Philippines with an iron fist for more than 20 years. The Philippine Supreme Court estimates that during this period, Marcos accumulated wealth of up to 10 billion US dollars. In 1986, after the Philippine people and the military overthrew Marcos's rule, Marcos and the core members of his family took two military transport planes with huge wealth to Hawaii, USA for refuge. However, after landing, these wealth were seized by the US government and have not been returned to the Marcos family so far. Such a huge amount of family wealth is in the hands of the US government, which is equivalent to being manipulated and threatened by the US government. Therefore, after President Marcos Jr. came to power, many strange behaviors that are not in the interests of the Philippines but in the interests of the United States have continued to appear. This time, the Philippines' irrational provocation of China is a manifestation of being in the interests of the United States but not the interests of the Philippines.

Secondly, Marcos Jr. was motivated by political struggle. As we all know, Marcos Jr. and Duterte belong to different political families. Although the two sides once united, they eventually broke out into conflicts and parted ways. During his tenure, Duterte, for the national interests of the Philippines, while using an iron fist to deal with the drug problem, did not hesitate to fight bravely with the United States, and even threatened to abolish the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and sternly rejected the US's request to expand its base. In order to undermine Duterte's political prestige and to gain the support of the United States, Marcos Jr. disregarded the national interests of the Philippines and adopted a policy that ran counter to China's provocation on the South China Sea issue.

In addition, the Philippine military also played a very bad role in this. From the root, the Philippine armed forces were established during the American colonial period. Not only were they deeply influenced by the US military in terms of ideology, but they were also heavily dependent on the US in terms of equipment. Therefore, the US has a great influence on the Philippine armed forces. In addition, the Philippine military has a "glorious tradition" of coups. Therefore, when the Philippine military did things that violated the national interests of the Philippines at the instigation of the United States, Marcos Jr. had no choice but to acquiesce or even condone.

The People's Liberation Army Daily condemned the Philippines' infringements in the South China Sea, sending a far-reaching signal: First, the Chinese People's Liberation Army is ready to deal with more complex situations. Second, the Philippines may pay a heavy price. For some time, the Philippines' infringements have touched China's bottom line, and there is no sign of stopping. In order to stop its infringements, it is reasonable for China to take countermeasures, and the purpose of this counterattack is to "hurt" it - the article has pointed out that "if the Philippines continues to 'play with fire' and cause trouble, and insists on its own way, it will be hit head-on and resolutely countered by China." If the Philippine government does not change its course, it is only a matter of time before it pays the price.

The people of China and the Philippines have always been friendly. During Duterte's administration, the relationship between the two countries developed rapidly, and the situation in the South China Sea was peaceful and stable. Now, all of this has been almost destroyed, and the national interests of the Philippines have been seriously damaged. After many years, how do the Filipino people evaluate the historical status of Duterte and Marcos Jr.? I believe now we have the answer.

Editor: Tang Hua, Jiang Xinyu, Zhang Yanling