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From October 7, 2023, a new roundIsraeli-Palestinian conflictSince the outbreak, as the conflict has mainly unfolded between Israel and Hamas, and its spillover effects have been mainly limited to the eastern coast of the Mediterranean around Palestine and Israel, and mainly manifested in the conflict between non-state actors such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi armed forces, and Iraq's "Popular Mobilization Organization" and Israel, as well as the harassment of US military bases and Western ships in the Red Sea, the public opinion and academia generally believe that the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict has not yet developed into the sixth Middle East war.

However, in my opinion, if we compare the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict with the five Middle East wars in history, although this round of conflict cannot be compared with the five Middle East wars in terms of the number of participating countries, the scale and intensity of the war, and territorial changes,However, its duration, casualties, degree of international crisis, impact on the international system and international order, etc. are not inferior to or even exceed the five Middle East wars in history.In addition, the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict is taking place against the backdrop of profound changes in the world's military and the forms of warfare.It also possesses many new features that have not been seen in previous Middle East wars.Therefore, it cannot be simply measured by the traditional standards of the five Middle East wars.

From the perspective of behavioral changes, the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has met the conditions for war.

From the perspective of the number of countries involved in the war, although the main players in the new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict cannot be compared with the many Middle East wars in history,The involvement of state actors and numerous non-state actors in the conflict has created conditions for war.

Judging from the evolution of the five Middle East wars in history,One of its development laws and characteristics is that the number of countries participating in the war is decreasing.Behind this is the gradual transformation of the Arab-Israeli conflict into the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the process and trend after the launch of the Middle East peace process, from the establishment of diplomatic relations between Egypt and Jordan and Israel to the normalization of relations between the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan and Israel.

The first Middle East War in 1948 was a war caused by the collective opposition of Arab countries to the establishment of Israel. Formally speaking, the Arab countries participating in the war were all seven countries of the Arab League at that time (Egypt, Iraq, Transjordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Yemen). Of course, the main participating countries were Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. This was also the time with the largest number of Arab countries participating in the war in form.

The Second Middle East War in 1956, also known as the Suez Canal War, was a conflict between Israel, Britain, France and Egypt. This war had its own particularity. It was a dual conflict between Egypt and Israel as well as the old colonial countries. In fact, it was not a pure Arab-Israeli conflict.

The third and fourth Middle East wars in 1967 and 1973 were mainly wars between Israel and Egypt, Syria and Jordan, and the number of Arab countries participating in the wars was significantly reduced compared to the first Middle East war. After the fourth Middle East war in 1973, Egypt and Israel gradually made peace and established diplomatic relations in 1979. Egypt has basically withdrawn from the Arab-Israeli conflict. In response to Egypt's policy changes, Arab countries split into moderates and resistance fronts, and since then, there has been no real collective war between Arab countries against Israel.

The Fifth Middle East War in 1982 was launched by Israel to eliminate the PLO that had moved to southern Lebanon, and eventually forced the PLO and its armed forces to leave the front line of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and move to African Arab countries such as Tunisia.This war also marked the transformation of the Arab-Israeli conflict into the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and it also determined that it was unlikely that another collective war between Arab countries and Israel would break out in the Middle East.Although Syria and Lebanon also participated in the war,Since then, the Arab-Israeli conflict has transformed into the conflict between Palestine and Israel, namely the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and its form has also undergone tremendous changes.

With the Palestine Liberation Organization's announcement of the establishment of Palestine in 1988, the United States shifted from armed struggle to peaceful struggle, and in fact recognized the existence of Israel and participated in the Middle East peace process.Especially after the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993, the possibility of war between the Palestine Liberation Organization and Israel has basically disappeared.

However, since its establishment in 1987, Hamas has adopted a policy of refusing to recognize Israel, persisting in its anti-Israel armed struggle, and refusing to negotiate with Israel, and has become the main force in the armed conflict between Palestine and Israel. The Middle East peace process suffered a setback in 2000, especially since Hamas occupied Gaza in 2007.The conflict between Hamas and Israel has become the core form of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Hamas has become the most important actor in the fight against Israel. This is the basis for observing a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Therefore, we can no longer use the traditional perspective to judge whether the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a war.We can no longer define wars based on the standard that both sides are state actors. In the Middle East, it is not only a fact but also a trend that non-state actors have become the main players in wars.The war between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon in 2006 and the war between the Houthi armed forces in Yemen and the Yemeni government and the Saudi-led Arab coalition since 2015 have shown that Hezbollah,Houthi armed forcesThe main role of non-state actors such as China in wars and conflicts in the Middle East.

In the new round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Hamas is undoubtedly the main force in the conflict with Israel. Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi armed forces, Iraq's "Popular Mobilization Organization" and other religious and political forces are also important participants in the war, and Iran is also directly or indirectly involved in the conflict.The new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a local war with Israel and Hamas as the main warring parties, in which many non-state actors such as Hezbollah and the Houthi armed forces directly or indirectly participate.

Judging from the nature, scale and impact of the conflict, the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict has reached the intensity of war.

First, judging from the nature of the conflict and the scale of casualties, the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has reached the level of war.Whether it is the manner and scale of Hamas' attacks on Israel and the damage they have caused to Israel, or Israel's retaliation against Hamas, the large-scale military operations in Gaza, and the disastrous consequences that have caused the deaths of more than 40,000 Palestinians, these are not general conflicts that can be summarized as conflicts. They have clearly reached the level of a local war.

From the perspective of casualties, the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict has even surpassed many Middle East wars in history. It is difficult to have very accurate statistics on the casualties caused by several Middle East wars. It is estimated that in the first Middle East war, 15,000 Arab troops died and about 6,000 Israeli troops died. In the second Middle East war, Egypt suffered more than 2,000 casualties and Israel suffered less than 100 casualties. In the third Middle East war, Arab countries suffered heavy losses, with more than 60,000 casualties and nearly 10,000 prisoners; Israel suffered more than 3,000 casualties. In the fourth Middle East war, the Arab world suffered more than 10,000 casualties; Israel suffered more than 2,000 casualties. In the fifth Middle East war, the Arab side suffered more than 6,000 casualties and Israel suffered hundreds of casualties.

But in the new round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,The death toll on the Palestinian side has exceeded 40,000.Hamas launched the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operationMore than 1,200 Israelis were killed.In addition to the casualties in military operations,Israeli casualties are believed to have run into the thousands.The casualties have exceeded those of many Middle East wars.

Secondly, in terms of duration, the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted for more than 10 months, which is longer than any Middle East war except the first Middle East War.

The first Middle East War broke out on May 14, 1948, the day of Israel's founding, and lasted until the first half of 1949. Israel signed armistice agreements with major Arab countries at different times: Egypt on February 24, 1949, Lebanon on March 23, 1949, Transjordan on April 3, 1949,Syria was on July 20, 1949. Syria is the only country whose conflict with Israel lasted for more than a year.

The Second Middle East War lasted from October 31 to November 6, 1956. Both sides declared a ceasefire under the coordination of the United Nations. By December, the British and French troops had completely withdrawn from Egypt; in March 1957, the Israeli army also withdrew from Egypt. Even if we calculate based on the time of Israel's withdrawal,The war lasted less than half a year.

The Third Middle East War broke out on June 5, 1967. Although its impact was huge, it was short-lived, lasting only six days, so it is also called the"Six Day War".

The Fourth Middle East War broke out inOctober 6, 1973On October 24, a ceasefire was signed under the mediation of the UN Security Council, with Egypt and Syria and IsraelJanuary and May 1974The first phase of the disengagement agreement was signed under the mediation of the United States.

The fifth Middle East war broke out on June 4, 1982. On June 27, the seventh emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire and unconditional withdrawal of Israel from Lebanon. However, Israel did not stop its military operations until early August.The actual war lasted for two months.

Finally, although the direct impact of the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict is lower than that of previous Middle East wars in history, its cumulative impact is no less than that of previous Middle East wars in history.

All previous Middle East wars have had profound impacts, especially in terms of territory, refugees, national psychology, etc., causing many disastrous impacts on Arab countries and Palestine.

In the first Middle East war, Israel occupied 80% of the total area of ​​Palestine and caused 960,000 Palestinians to become refugees. With the support of the United States, Israel turned defeat into victory and won the war, which enabled the newly established Israel to gain a firm foothold in Palestine through the war.

During the Second Middle East War, Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal, old colonial powers such as Britain and France faded out of the Middle East, and the United States gradually took control of Western leadership over Middle Eastern affairs.

The Third Middle East War had a disastrous impact on Arab countries and Palestine. Israel occupied the West Bank of the Jordan River, the Gaza Strip, the Old City of Jerusalem, the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt, and the Golan Heights of Syria, a total of 65,000 square kilometers of land in Palestine, which completely improved Israel's strategic disadvantage. The war also caused 1 million Palestinians to become refugees. In addition, this war also led to the decline of Arab nationalism and the Arab national spirit was severely damaged.

The Fourth Middle East War broke the myth of Israel's invincibility and ended the "neither war nor peace" situation in the Arab-Israeli conflict caused by the United States and the Soviet Union. Egypt achieved the goal of "using war to promote talks". However, the subsequent peace between Egypt and Israel and Egypt's withdrawal from the Arab-Israeli conflict led to Egypt's serious isolation in the Arab world, the Arab world fell into serious division, and weakened the strength of Arab countries to unite and fight against Israel.

The Fifth Middle East War dealt a heavy blow to the Palestine Liberation Organization. More than 10,000 PLO armed forces evacuated Beirut under the supervision of the US, French and Italian troops and went to eight Arab countries including Syria, Jordan and Tunisia. The PLO headquarters moved to Tunisia. The PLO has since been away from the front line of the Palestinian-Israeli struggle, which also created conditions for the subsequent Hamas to establish its social foundation in Palestine through anti-Israel armed struggle. In addition, the conflict also led to sectarian killings in Beirut, Lebanon, which has left endless political troubles for Lebanon.

In the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, although the participating countries, battlefield depth, manpower deployment, impact intensity, territorial changes and refugee issues cannot be compared with previous Middle East wars in history,The new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict has not only caused a huge number of deaths among Palestinian civilians, but has also, to a large extent, completely buried the Middle East peace process since the 1990s and produced extremely adverse effects.

The new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not only an extremely brutal conflict between Israel and Hamas, but also has a serious impact on the situation in the Middle East in the form of spillover from Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi armed forces in Yemen and Israel, and even Israel and Iran.The "Resistance Alliance" led by Iran is in a camp-based confrontation with the United States and Israel.

The impact of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict on Israel's national image is unprecedented. Israel's radical policies and killings haveIsrael is facing unprecedented isolation in the international community.

The new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict has declared the bankruptcy of the US Middle East policy and highlighted the disastrous consequences of the "Abraham Accords" it unilaterally promoted.

A new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflictThis has had a strong impact on the international order and system led by the United Nations.This has triggered a simultaneous rise in anti-Semitism and Islamophobia within Western society, causing serious divisions in Western society.

In short, the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict is different from the previous Middle East wars in form. It is a complex war involving both state and non-state actors, and a war involving emerging technologies such as drones and artificial intelligence. It is not only a physical conflict with great destructiveness and extremely tragic conflict, but also an ideological and spiritual conflict that brings together complex factors such as ethnicity, religion, war ethics, international law, and ideology...

Essentially,The impact of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict on both sides of Palestine and Israel, the Middle East region and even the world is no less than that of the Middle East war in history in terms of nature, scale and influence.In this sense,The new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict is undoubtedly a more complicated war in the Middle East.Its complexity and cruelty lie not only in the physical war, but also inIn a spiritual and psychological senseof war.

"Middle East Wise Comments" is a column by Professor Liu Zhongmin of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University. It adheres to the combination of reality, theory and basic principles, and responds to real-life issues with the depth of history and theory.