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Interface News Reporter | Cai Xingzhuo

Interface News Editor | Liu Haichuan

According to CCTV News Client, the Ukrainian army raided Russia's Kursk Oblast on August 6, 2024, and then the two sides broke out in fierce conflict in the state. On August 12, Russian President Putin held a meeting on the situation in Kursk Oblast and said that the most urgent and important thing in Kursk Oblast is that the Ministry of Defense must immediately drive the Ukrainian army out of Russian territory.

The Institute for the Study of War Studies (ISW) said Ukraine's operation in Kursk advanced 800 square kilometers in the first six days. The US think tank said the invasion "struck Russia's largely unprepared, unequipped and unmanned defensive positions on the border." The BBC report described it as an "unexpected cross-border operation" and commented that it was a self-Russia launches large-scale military operation against UkraineThis is Ukraine's "deepest incursion" into Russia to date.

However, amid Ukraine's claims of territorial gains, Kiev has repeatedly stated that it has "no intention of occupying Russian territory."Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, said one of the main purposes of their invasion of Russia was to get Moscow to negotiate "on our own terms."

CCTV.com reported on August 14 that Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to drive the Ukrainian army out of Russian territory and give them the response they deserve. Putin said that the West is fighting Russia at the hands of the Ukrainians. Ukraine is trying to gain more bargaining chips for negotiations through this military action. Although the Ukrainian army is trying to slow down the Russian army's advance to other front-line theaters, the Russian army is accelerating. What awaits the Ukrainian army is heavy losses. The Russian Ministry of Defense said that during the entire battle in the Kursk direction, the Ukrainian army lost thousands of soldiers, dozens of tanks and armored personnel carriers.

Ouyang Xiangying, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Jiemian News:This time Ukraine's Kursk operation was somewhat "surprisingly successful". For Ukraine, which is not in an advantageous position, this operation is a bargaining chip for them to negotiate with Russia. "The stalemate in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has lasted for a long time. This 'stalemate' means that although Russia has an advantage, its westward advancement is still full of difficulties and there is no breakthrough progress."

Regarding the background of the Kursk operation, Ouyang Xiangying said that there are many uncertainties in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the current US election is the biggest external uncertainty. Previously, allowing Ukraine to attack Russia with its own weapons was a relaxation of its attitude compared to only allowing it to defend itself with its own weapons. "This shows thatUnder the current US government’s guidelines, the US squeeze on Russia is intensifying.”

However,Ouyang Xiangying believes thatEuropean countries have some concerns about this. August 16, 2024，The German government announced that it would not be able to provide new aid to Ukraine in 2025, which happened during the Kursk operation. "Germany used the lack of budget as an excuse to reduce the intensity of the war to some extent. If the situation becomes more complicated and the battlefield expands, it will not be a good thing for Europe." Therefore,Ouyang Xiangying believes that this action may further trigger policy hesitation and changes among relevant parties.

Will Operation Kursk affect the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict? Ouyang Xiangying believes that the current situation remains to be seen and no definite conclusion can be drawn. In her judgment, Operation Kursk will not have an impact on the overall situation. However,This operation still exposed many problems, such as Russia's slow response, which made the outside world doubt its aerospace capabilities that could have played a role in reconnaissance. In addition, the outside world will also wonder whether this operation will contain Russia's actions in Ukraine in the future.

In addition, regarding Ukraine,Ouyang Xiangying believes that a basic conclusion can be drawn from this Kursk operation, that is, Ukraine cannot change its own situation through it. First, the consumption of the war has made its comprehensive national strength the lowest in Europe. In addition, for the battlefield situation of the entire Russian-Ukrainian conflict, even if Ukraine has a certain breakthrough in Russia, its domestic resources will be difficult to support its expansion of the victory.

"From an overall structural perspective, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is fundamentally a reflection of the contradictions between the United States and Russia. If the two cannot sit down and negotiate, it will be difficult to have a final outcome on the battlefield."