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Cailianshe News, August 18 (Editor: Shi Zhengcheng)Over the past few days, as the largest retailer in the United StatesWalmartFinancial reports and official retail data were stronger than expected, sweeping away the "recession trading haze" of the US stock market and soaring. The S&P 500 index, which rose for seven consecutive days, not only achieved the largest weekly increase of the year, but was even only 2% away from its record high......

(S&P 500 daily chart, source: TradingView)

However, as stock bulls jubilantly celebrate the return of the bull market, some analysts sayThe underlying logic that triggered this round of stock price increases still needs to be further observed for the resilience of consumption data.Or to be more precise, they do not believe that the US economic data is so sunny and positive.

The reason why the U.S. stock market pays close attention to consumption data is simple: consumption accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic growth and directly determines the mental outlook of the economy.

John Zolidis, founder of Quo Vadis Capital, a research firm that focuses on consumer markets, said:Take Walmart for example. Consumers in this supermarket are not spending lavishly, but are buying necessities and looking for discounts..thereforeThis earnings report is not an entirely positive, “all is well” signal。

Zolidis said:Judging from a large number of company comments and economic data, the United States is still in an environment of continued weak consumer spending, which is what he expects to see in retailers' financial reports.

U.S. stock investors probably still remember thatDuring the continuous decline that began in early July, many US listed companies gave a different picture.——B&B and travel booking companiesAirbnbAirbnb and ExpediaConsumers are becoming more hesitant about summer travel; Cruises, flights and hotelsBookings have fallen sharply; Food manufacturersHershey、Kraft HeinzLowered its revenue forecast for this year; KFC,Papa John'sOther restaurant chains also saidAmericans are eating out less。

Recently, U.S. stock investors have paid close attention toMcDonald'sThe most noteworthy highlight of the business is that it was the first to launch the American version of the "poor man's meal" - a $5 discount meal. After that, almost every large chain restaurant came up with its own "$5 meal".

In the face of these financial reports, Michael Landsberg, CEO of private wealth management firm Landsberg Bennett, said:McDonald's has improved its declining revenue by launching $5 meals, while Walmart has always claimed that its prices are the most affordable and has cut prices on many products.In his view, this shows that American businesses are seeing consumers' spending power weakening.

For this reason, the earnings reports of a series of retail stocks will continue to attract attention. Next week, the second largest retail department store in the United States willTarget,as well asMacy'sThe financial report will be released, and then there will beBest Buy, Dollar General and other companies.

Michael Baker, an analyst at investment bank DA Davidson, explained:Retailers are more likely to lower their guidance for the second half of the year than to raise it.Therefore, before the financial report release period, he lowered his second-quarter and second-half earnings forecasts for many retailers, including Target and the new "Buffett concept stock" Ulta Beauty.

In Baker's view, Walmart's success comes more from its unique advantages - the company's focus on discounts and its execution in e-commerce business are helping the company seize market share and attract higher-income consumers.

Faced with the headwinds in the consumer market, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting later next week, and the outside world is generally waiting for him to update his attitude towards interest rate cuts.

(Shi Zhengcheng, Cailianshe)