How long can the Ukrainian army hold out in the Kursk raid? Experts: Logistics support is the key
2024-08-17
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On the battlefield of Kursk, Ukraine's tactics were more radical. According to the Ukrainian war report, on the night of the 8th, a Russian reinforcement force was hit by the Ukrainian army's "HIMARS" long-range rocket launcher. The video circulating on the Internet showed that a battalion of Russian troops was engulfed in fire, and the scene of the battle was quite tragic. This set of advanced equipment provided by NATO is definitely a sharp weapon in the hands of the Ukrainian army. Is Ukraine no longer satisfied with passive defense, but wants to take the initiative to attack and play its own rhythm?
Military expert Wang Qiang said: "I think this question is actually very realistic, that is, how long can Ukraine's war potential last? Of course, both people and weapons are embarrassing for Ukraine. Let me talk about my opinion first. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, we cannot simply think that Ukraine is in a passive defense state. In fact, it is a tactical offensive in the eastern part of Ukraine. The concept of defense is to consolidate the occupied territory. Ukraine does not have such a requirement. Its actual requirement is to retake the eastern part of Ukraine. Therefore, it is always in a tactical offensive state in this direction, but why does it not develop an offensive in this direction? Because it does not have this ability. After the Crimean crisis in 2014, the separatist forces in the eastern part of Ukraine have dug countless trenches in this place, built countless defense systems, and buried countless mines. After Russia came in, it continued to consolidate such a defense system, and the front line has been relatively stable. Then it is harder than climbing to the sky for Ukraine to make any gains in this direction.
On the contrary, in Kursk, the vast grassland has no defense system. As long as a mobile attack is carried out along the road, it is possible to occupy this settlement and achieve the tactical goal. The prerequisite here is that it has enough troops. Regarding the issue of troops, the data is now confusing, because before the outbreak of the war, Russia announced a data that almost 11 million of Ukraine's 40 million people fled to Western Europe and 5 million fled to Eastern Europe. Calculated in this way, it is difficult for these old and weak corps left in Ukraine to support an army. Of course, this data is provided by Russia. The latest data from Ukraine is that they have run away about 3 million people, and now they are gradually looking for people to join the army. It can also be said from the side that Ukraine's military's sustained combat capability is indeed worrying.
I think the reason why the HIMARS was able to play a role in the Kursk direction and knock out the Russian transport convoy once again is inseparable from Russia's carelessness. The long-range combat of the HIMARS, coupled with the precise intelligence guidance system provided by NATO, allows the Ukrainian army to still play an integrated combat effectiveness. The next question is whether these weapon systems have equipment support and logistics support. Can they continue to provide ammunition, fuel, and drinking water, medicine and food to the frontline soldiers? This puts a lot of pressure on Ukraine. On the other hand, if Russia does not have effective countermeasures to block GPS and knock out the Ukrainian army's equipment and logistics support system, I think the difficulty of this operation will be relatively large. "
Editor: Chen Jiawen
Editor: Deng Aihua
