Can “cutting off the gecko’s tail” save the declining situation?
2024-08-17
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On August 14, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office and announced that he would withdraw from the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party presidential election. As soon as the news came out, public opinion was in an uproar.
In September 2021, Fumio Kishida was elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party and assumed the post of prime minister. Now, as his three-year term is about to expire, and in the context of Japan's prime minister being allowed to serve three consecutive terms, why did Fumio Kishida suddenly give up the election? What impact will this move have on Japan's political situation?
At present, it seems that Kishida Fumio's resignation is a helpless move under multiple difficulties.. First, Kishida's performance during his tenure was not good. In terms of economy, Kishida tried to implement a new economic policy after taking office, and constructed the concept of "new capitalism", striving to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor in society through government redistribution. However, the policy has limited stimulating effect on the economy, GDP growth is weak, and Japan is unable to get rid of the deep-rooted economic downturn. At the same time, the yen continues to depreciate, coupled with the impact of global inflation, the prices of Japan's overseas imports have soared, while the actual wages of residents have fallen, and the people are complaining.
Second, during Kishida's administration, the LDP was plagued by scandals and public support continued to decline. Among them, the "black money" incident in which multiple LDP factions openly pocketed political fundraising and took kickbacks had a huge negative impact and caused dissatisfaction among many party members. The subsequent incident caused a series of chain reactions, leading to the "Kishida faction", "Abe faction" and "Motegi faction" to disband their factions. Public opinion surveys show that the support rate of the Kishida government has dropped from more than 50% when it first came to power to around 20%.
Third, Kishida had a rift with the main factions within the party and it was difficult for him to gain support. Kishida was successfully elected as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party thanks to the support of the three major party veteran factions centered on Abe, Aso, and Motegi, which enabled him to win over Taro Kono, whose public support rate was much higher than his.This also shows that the importance of internal nominations in the Liberal Democratic Party far exceeds the public support rate.. Although at the beginning of his term, with the assistance of the largest faction in the party, the Abe faction, Kishida appointed many Abe faction members to key positions in order to ensure a smooth transition and enhance the stability of the regime, the "black gold" incident caused the two factions to drift apart. Furthermore, Kishida's move to dissolve the Hiroikekai caught Taro Aso off guard, leading to a gradual estrangement. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Kishida met with Taro Aso on July 25 in the name of "reporting on the itinerary for the visit to the United States", hoping that the two sides could ease relations. A week later, on August 2, they met at the central party headquarters for about an hour, but Aso did not make a statement in the end to support Kishida's re-election.
Fourth, resignation is an important way for the LDP to save itself and protect itself, and it is a self-adjustment to restore its image. The plummeting support rate of the prime minister is likely to affect the LDP's seats in the House of Representatives election next year. In order to avoid being implicated, the LDP is best at re-electing representatives when the government is unpopular with the people in order to overcome difficulties. As Kishida said at the press conference on the 14th, "The LDP has to reform and adjust itself" to reshape the "new LDP."At this time, Kishida is like the "tail of a gecko", and the Liberal Democratic Party is eager to nominate a new candidate to save the declining situation.。
So, what impact will Kishida Fumio's withdrawal from the election have on Japan's political situation and the LDP's election landscape? In fact, Kishida's withdrawal from the election has little impact on Japan's overall political landscape. At present, the LDP still maintains a large gap with the opposition parties, and its ruling foundation is relatively solid.The new Liberal Democratic Party presidential election is unlikely to fundamentally affect Japan's basic political line.In general, Japan's politics and diplomacy will continue to show a trend of "rightward" and "conservative", and pressure on China in terms of political security and economic security may continue in the future.
Judging from the election pattern of the Liberal Democratic Party, although the politicians who may run for the election seem to be competing for the throne, in fact, each candidate has shortcomings to varying degrees. There is no relatively unified expected candidate among the public and the Liberal Democratic Party, and the election results are still uncertain. At present, the politicians who are running for the election have begun to take some so-called "tough" actions to compete for public attention and support. According to a report by the Nikkei on August 15, Shinjiro Koizumi and Takayuki Kobayashi visited the Yasukuni Shrine on the morning of August 15 in the name of "Victory over Japan Day".
However, it is worth noting that Japan's "Generation Z" young people are becoming increasingly indifferent to politics, and are even more tired of paying attention to the performances of politicians amid the downward economic trend.In the eyes of the public, no matter who comes to power, it is just another similar politician. The LDP’s “self-reform” and adjustments may not help, but just a self-consolation.。
