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Whether for ordinary people or within the ruling party, compared with the "illusory" diplomatic achievements, the sluggish Japanese economy actually reflects the Kishida government's ability to govern.

On the afternoon of August 9, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was supposed to board a government plane to start his four-day trip to Central Asia and attend the first summit between Japan and the five Central Asian countries held that day. However, the trip was temporarily canceled on the afternoon of the 9th.

At a press conference held in Nagasaki, Kishida explained that the trip was canceled because it was necessary to prioritize crisis management preparations for a possible major Nankai Trough earthquake.

At the last minute before departure, Kishida and his team suddenly announced that they would "stay at home" and cancel their overseas visits. It seemed that they also wanted to avoid being accused of "poor crisis response" and were worried that it would affect the political considerations of the upcoming LDP presidential election in September.

Support rate hovers at a low level, and internal strife makes the situation worse.

Fumio Kishida was elected as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan at the end of September 2021, and his term will expire in September this year. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will hold an election for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party before September. Since the Liberal Democratic Party holds a majority of seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives, the president of the Liberal Democratic Party will also become the Prime Minister of Japan. Fumio Kishida has previously stated that he will seek re-election. However, judging from the current situation, it may not be easy.

Logically speaking, since there have been no elections for the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors in three years, and the former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had significant political influence within the Liberal Democratic Party, was shot and died unexpectedly, it would be beneficial for Kishida to integrate the forces of various factions within the ruling party, implement his governing philosophy, accumulate political capital through domestic and foreign affairs, and seize the "first opportunity" for re-election. However, according to polls recently released by many Japanese media, due to public dissatisfaction with the Liberal Democratic Party's political "black money" scandal that broke out in October last year and its subsequent handling, the support rate of the cabinet under Kishida's leadership and the support rate of the Liberal Democratic Party have both fallen into a continuous downturn. The latest poll released by Japan's Jiji Press in August showed that the support rate of the Kishida cabinet has been hovering at a low level of "resignation waters" below 20% since December last year.

Of course, whether Kishida can be re-elected depends not only on the public support rate, but also on the will of the ruling party. However, to make matters worse, the crisis of "internal strife" within the party has led to further distrust of Kishida, making his re-election prospects even bleaker. In recent times, some LDP members, including Yoshihide Suga, who served as the top adviser of the "Political Reform Headquarters" established under the leadership of Fumio Kishida himself, Saito Hiroaki, a member of the House of Representatives of the Aso faction, and Higashikuni Kan, a member of the House of Representatives of the Motegi faction, have publicly criticized Kishida's governance ability and even asked him not to participate in the presidential election again.

Poor economic policy performance and limited diplomatic "additional points"

Kishida served as foreign minister for a long time during Abe's second term in office and was an important participant and executor of the Abe cabinet's diplomatic line and decision-making. Since taking office, he has made good use of the official residence's diplomatic decision-making system to carry out "realist diplomacy in the new era" with the intention of strengthening the deterrence and response capabilities of the Japan-US alliance. In addition to making full use of the Japan-US-Australia-India four-nation mechanism, he has highlighted the issue of economic security cooperation, trying to win over "like-minded" partners and countries with interests outside the region, and expand the so-called "free and open Indo-Pacific cooperation relationship." The trip to Central Asia, which was canceled for some reason, is also part of his Indo-Pacific diplomatic strategic layout.

However, under the current reality of "structural economic interdependence" in the international community, most countries have their own thoughts on whether to follow the Japan-US Indo-Pacific strategy. They only want to gain economic benefits, but are unwilling to take risks strategically. Kishida's efforts to follow the United States in implementing a militarized conservative foreign policy have not significantly enhanced Japan's international influence. Instead, it has placed Japan in a more turbulent international security environment, leading to a further loss of its national strategic independence.

On the other hand, affected by the international food security and energy crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the prices of various food-centered commodities in Japan have risen sharply, and the rate of increase in the consumer price index has remained high, causing real wages in Japan to shrink and personal consumption to grow sluggishly. Although the Kishida government proposed a new economic stimulus plan in early November 2023, claiming that it would "return the increased taxes in the past two years to the people" in the form of tax cuts to cope with rising prices. However, compared with sustained income growth such as salary increases, the consumption stimulus effect brought about by short-term tax cuts and subsidies is not obvious. According to calculations by the Japanese Cabinet Office, the economic stimulus measures introduced by the Kishida government have limited effects, and the stimulus effect on personal consumption is only about 0.4%, accounting for only about 0.2% of GDP. In the eyes of ordinary Japanese people and even the ruling party, compared with the "illusory" diplomatic achievements, the sluggish Japanese economy actually reflects the governing ability of the Kishida government.

At a time when the prospects for re-election as prime minister are worrying, Kishida chose to stay in the country to deal with a possible major earthquake rather than continue to "score points" in diplomacy.

Produced by Deep Sea Studio

Written by Wang Mengxue (Assistant Researcher, Institute of International Studies, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)

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