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Reference News reported on August 12 On August 10, the German weekly Der Spiegel published an exclusive interview with Gustav Gressel, an expert on Eastern Europe, security policy and military strategy at the European Council on Foreign Relations. The content of the interview is compiled as follows:

SPIEGEL: Did Ukraine win the war by attacking Kursk?

Gressel replied: Although the Ukrainian army has made great progress and occupied many places, it will be difficult to hold the occupied areas in the long run. The deeper the Ukrainian army goes into Russian territory, the more troops and weapon systems it will have to deploy.

Ukrainian troops launched a large-scale attack on Russia's Kursk region (video screenshot)

Ukraine did not launch this offensive because it was stronger. The Ukrainian army has fewer men and less ammunition than the Russian army. The Russian army is still on the offensive in Donbass. Many of the Ukrainian brigades deployed there have been crippled and are waiting to be replaced by fresh troops, but these fresh troops are now sent to Kursk. Due to the lack of results, Ukraine has now decided to adopt a creative but risky strategy.

Q: Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Russia should feel the pressure of the war it launched against Ukraine. What kind of pressure?

A: The Ukrainian leadership wants to force Russia to negotiate, and for that they need bargaining chips, which they now hope to gain by quickly occupying Russian territory at a relatively low cost.

But I have little faith that Putin will overturn his preconditions for negotiations, which are designed to force Ukraine to capitulate, and return to the negotiating table. The offensive was certainly embarrassing for Russian propaganda, but it was tolerable. Kursk is on the periphery, where the Russian leadership cares little. They would rather suffer losses there than be forced to negotiate.

Q: Are you saying that Ukraine miscalculated?

A: If the Ukrainian army wants to hold on there for months, it will pay an unbearable military cost. The extension of the front line is first of all beneficial to Russia. It has more weapons, ammunition and troops, which can be deployed on a longer front. The advantage Ukraine gained by surprise attack may quickly turn into a disadvantage.

Russian mechanized forces sent reinforcements to the Kursk front area on August 9

Q: How will the Ukrainian army’s progress in Kursk change the course of the war?

A: In the best-case scenario, the Russians are unable to hold off the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians expand their occupation zone to control a contiguous territory—including important strategic infrastructure such as the Kursk nuclear power plant. Eventually, a deal is reached where Russia and Ukraine would exchange land, such as Kursk for the occupied areas around Kharkiv, and some form of ceasefire would be reached.

In the worst case, Putin will send more troops to Kursk. The Russian army will first stop the Ukrainian offensive and then wear it down. By then, in Donbass, the Ukrainian brigades will be exhausted and can no longer hold the front. After the front there collapses, Ukraine will have to withdraw its troops from Kursk and reinforce eastern Ukraine. Eastern Ukraine will lose more territory. Russia will then rekindle its hope of winning the war.

Q: How will Western countries react to this situation?

A: Ukraine may be seen as an unreliable daredevil. Operation Kursk may mark the beginning of Ukraine's military end. (Compiled by Wang Qing)

Further reading

It is reported that more than 10,000 Ukrainian troops participated in the war, and Putin spoke out

According to CCTV News, on August 12, local time, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, Russia, reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin thatA total of 28 settlements and about 2,000 people are controlled by the Ukrainian army in Kursk Oblast.

So far, a total of 121,000 people have been evacuated from the border area in Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian military attacks have killed 12 civilians and injured 121 people in the oblast.

Since the 6th, Kursk Oblast has been subjected to fierce ground attacks from Ukraine. On the 10th, the state government called on residents in high-risk areas to speed up evacuation. The Russian federal government announced a series of measures on the same day to increase the security alert status of Kursk and other two border states. The acting governor of Kursk Oblast said on the 11th that a Ukrainian sabotage team entered the Belovsky District on the 10th, but the Russian army quickly stabilized the situation. There is currently no fighting in the area. The border guards and Russian troops are taking all necessary measures to protect civilians. The acting governor of Kursk Oblast, Russia, said on the 12th local time that the Kursk Oblast Operations Command decided to evacuate residents from the Belovsky District.

Putin: The top priority is to drive Ukrainian troops out of Russian territory

Medvedev: Special military operations will be pushed to Kiev and other places

According to CCTV News, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on the security situation in Kursk Oblast on the 12th local time. Putin said that Ukraine was trying to gain more bargaining chips for negotiations by launching an attack on Kursk Oblast.

Putin said that despite Ukraine's provocative actions in Kursk Oblast, Russian troops are still advancing in an orderly manner on the front line.

Putin said that the top priority is to drive Ukrainian troops out of Russian territory (video screenshot)

According to CCTV International News, Putin stressed that"The most urgent and important thing at the moment is to immediately drive the Ukrainian troops out of Russian territory."He also said, "Although the Ukrainian army launched provocative actions in Kursk Oblast, the Russian army is still advancing in an orderly manner along the entire combat contact line. After the Ukrainian army raided Kursk Oblast, the Russian army's offensive increased instead.The Ukrainian army will receive a due response, and the Russian army will achieve all its goals."

On August 10, local time, Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that the Ukrainian army's attack on Kursk brought serious political and legal consequences. From this moment on, Russia's special military operations should have an open extraterritorial nature. The scope of special military operations must also be extended to Odessa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Nikolayev,Kyiv and beyond.

Medvedev said that Russia would only stop special military operations when it deems it acceptable and beneficial.

According to a report by Reference News citing the Austrian newspaper News on the 11th, the number of Ukrainian troops participating in the war is obviously much greater than people had previously expected:The current statement is that there are at least 6 to 8 brigades or parts of them, and a US source claims that the number of Ukrainian troops participating in the war is more than 10,000 or 12,000.The Ukrainian army's occupied or combat zone is said to range from 300 square kilometers to more than 6,000 square kilometers, which is roughly equivalent to the area of ​​Ukrainian territory controlled by the Russian army since this spring.

The report pointed out that the Russian reinforcements were either on the way or had already arrived. It is reported that at least 9 newly formed brigades or their main forces came to the rescue, including marines, airborne troops, tanks and infantry from the Moscow region, St. Petersburg, the Far East, Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russian Air Force also launched a fierce attack on the Ukrainian army.

Observers noted thatAll reserve troops in Russia's hinterland have been deployed.It is worth noting that the troops currently being sent to fight in Kursk Oblast are conscripts. Although this may be unavoidable in the urgent situation of the domestic defense war, these recruits have no combat experience.

Zaporizhia nuclear power plant cooling tower burns inside

According to @CCTV International News Weibo, according to the news released by Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant spokesperson Yevgeniya Yashenna on August 12,The cooling tower of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant "has been burned down inside due to a fire caused by a drone attack."The staff needs to conduct a detailed assessment before confirming the time required for repairs. The head of the Zaporizhia region said on social media on August 11 local time that the cooling facilities of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant "caught fire due to an attack by the Ukrainian army" that day, and the radiation levels around the nuclear power plant were normal. The nuclear power plant said that the cooling facilities that were attacked were not adjacent to the generator set.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said on the same day that Ukraine's action was "nuclear intimidation against the European continent." However, Ukrainian President Zelensky said on social media on the same day that "it was Russia that set the fire in the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant area." He also pointed out that the radiation indicators of the nuclear power plant were normal.

According to Xinhua News Agency, TASS quoted the Zaporizhia region's emergency department as saying that the fire in the cooling tower of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant was put out at around 23:30 local time on the 11th. The fire had no impact on the operation of the nuclear power plant. The nuclear radiation levels in the surrounding areas of the nuclear power plant and the city of Energodar where the nuclear power plant is located are normal. The incident caused no casualties.

Ukrainian President Zelensky accused Russia of arson in the nuclear power plant on social media, saying that "Russia should be held accountable for this." Zelensky's post was accompanied by a 20-second short video.In the short video, a fire can be seen burning at the bottom of the nuclear power plant's cooling tower, with thick black smoke billowing from the top.

The IAEA said on social media the same day that its experts saw thick black smoke rising from the northern area of ​​the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant that night and had heard multiple explosions before. So far, no reports have been received on nuclear safety.