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Analysis: Why would Ukrainians risk invading Russian soil?

2024-08-11

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A photo released by the governor of Kursk, Russia, shows a house damaged by shelling in the city of Suja./AP

CNN commented that starting from August 6, Ukrainian leaders decided to move a large amount of scarce military resources across the border into Russia in pursuit of international media headlines, but so far their strategic goals have not been clear.

Two and a half years after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian army, exhausted from dealing with the Russian offensive, suddenly turned to the Russian mainland, indicating that Ukrainians were either desperate about the prospects or were inspired by some aspect or information.

anyway,Bringing the war to Russia may herald a new phase in the war

This is not because Ukraine's invasion of Russia is new. In fact, the Ukrainian army has been attacking targets in Russia using drones and other means for more than a year. But Russian citizens, in the three years since the outbreak of the war, have not really felt how much the Russian army's war in Ukraine has to do with their own lives. Russians are not really involved in this war.

Therefore, at least in the eyes of the Russians, the attack by the Ukrainian regular army on Russian territory was shocking and a rare adventure for the Ukrainians, who have been on the passive defensive on the battlefield for the past 18 months.

But for Ukrainians, what they need is a real victory, not a gamble.

On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin called it a "major provocation" by Ukraine.

Although Ukrainian authorities have refused to comment on Putin's accusations, some observers have openly questioned the wisdom of Ukraine's gamble.

CNN analysis believes that there may be a larger strategy at work. The city of Sudja in Kursk Oblast in southern Russia is now partially under the control of the Ukrainian army. It is a key hub for Russian natural gas exports and a valve for supplying natural gas from Russia to Europe through Ukraine.

Before this cross-border offensive into Russia, there were still huge question marks over the strategic objectives of General Oleksandr Silsky, who had only recently taken over as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army. Lately, his command had been divided, with younger subordinates questioning whether Silsky was willing to take heavy casualties in a war of attrition on the front lines, where Russia's superior manpower usually prevailed.

Human wave tactics are a Soviet way of thinking, and Silsky comes from that era. But the younger generation of Ukrainian soldiers value dexterity and cunning rather than brutal persistence.

Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Silsky/Getty Images

For months, Ukraine has been disproportionately targeting Russia’s internal infrastructure—often with the help of Western intelligence and advanced weaponry—to sabotage Russia’s rear airstrips, naval bases, and oil terminals in an effort to inflict long-term damage on Moscow’s economy and war machine. But this time is different: For the first time, Ukraine is sending a large ground force into enemy territory, where Ukrainian supply lines are more strained and objectives are by definition harder to achieve.

This action,Just as Ukraine's long-awaited Western weapons, the F-16 fighter jets, finally arrived

USF-16 fighterComing to the Ukrainian front, it could erode Russia's waning air superiority in the coming months. This could mean fewerGlide bombFewer missiles are terrorizing Ukrainian urban communities, hitting frontline Ukrainian troops. But by some accounts, the lack of ammunition remains a problem for Kiev, but it is certain that Western supplies may eventually fill the gap.

So,Why take such a high-risk action as attacking Russia's mainland now?

CNN commented that if people look at the world in front of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, other target options will emerge. First, discussions on negotiations to end the war have begun. Russia may be invited to the next peace conference held by Ukraine and its allies. The proportion of Ukrainians who favor negotiations is a minority, but it is beginning to grow; second, the possibility of Trump becoming the US president again puts pressure on Kiev.

Vice President Harris may maintain the same firm stance on Ukraine as current President Biden, but it is important to remember that Western foreign policy is a fickle and easily exhausted beast.NATOContinued support for Ukraine is an outlier. As the war approaches its fourth year, there will be growing controversy over how it ended.

U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets began taking over Ukrainian airspace/Reuters

Both countries need to answer a question: Is there any real benefit for Ukraine to continue fighting and dying without any real prospect of retaking the occupied territory from Moscow? Does Russia want to push forward on the Ukrainian battlefield indefinitely, losing thousands of men for every hundred meters of advance, and watching the military capabilities of a world power slowly being consumed by Ukraine's long-range strikes?

Now that it seems that the prospect of a negotiated settlement of the war is no longer so remote, both sides are scrambling to improve their battlefield positions before sitting down at the negotiating table. It is not clear whether Ukraine's advance on Kursk was motivated by this or simply to inflict damage on the enemy where it is weak.

This marks a rare and substantial gamble in which Ukraine is taking its limited war resources, and thus may foreshadow Ukrainians’ belief that a larger change is coming.

Western media commented that attacking Russia's mainland was a gamble by Ukrainian leaders

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