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At 24:00 on August 8, a new round of price adjustment for domestic refined oil products will open. According to the forecasts of comprehensive institutions, the retail price of refined oil products will be reduced for the sixth time this year.

During this round of pricing cycle, international oil prices continued to fall. Overall, on the supply side, OPEC+'s production cut target of 2.2 million barrels per day will be implemented until the end of September, but it may gradually increase production from October depending on market conditions. In addition, potential risks brought by geopolitics need to be vigilant. On the demand side, the US summer travel peak continues to release positive news, and seasonal demand support continues. However, the recent global economic data is weak, and market concerns about the demand outlook have fermented.

According to the Zhuochuang Information Monitoring Model, as of the close of August 6, the domestic reference crude oil change rate on the 9th working day was -6.48%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel prices were both reduced by 280 yuan/ton. The price per liter of 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline, and 0# diesel were reduced by 0.22 yuan, 0.23 yuan, and 0.24 yuan respectively.

Longzhong Information calculated that the average price of reference crude oil in the cycle as of August 6 was US$77.90 per barrel, down 5.76% from the previous cycle. As of the 9th working day, the corresponding refined oil price in this cycle has dropped by 270 yuan per ton. If the price reduction is finalized, based on a 70-liter tank, private car owners will spend about 14 yuan less to fill up a tank of gas.

According to statistics from China News Service, domestic oil prices have undergone 15 rounds of adjustments this year, showing a pattern of "seven increases, five decreases and three stagnations". After offsetting the increases and decreases, domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 555 yuan/ton and 535 yuan/ton respectively compared with the end of last year.

According to the "ten working days" principle, the next round of domestic refined oil retail price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 22, 2024.

Looking ahead, Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that OPEC+ may gradually increase production from October, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the supply side still has positive factors. In addition, the Fed's September rate cut is expected to be significant, but it has not yet affected the recent price adjustment cycle. Coupled with the increasing concerns about the economy and demand, international oil prices may continue to move forward under pressure in the short term, and it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be more likely to be lowered.

In the medium and long term, Zhuochuang Information believes that the macro-economic impact on the oil market will continue to be mainly negative due to the emotional fluctuations caused by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the risk aversion caused by the economy and energy demand. The industry is affected by seasonal factors, and the impact of the US oil market on the oil market is positive in the third quarter and negative in the fourth quarter. OPEC+ is expected to have a small increase in supply in the fourth quarter, but the policy adjustment is expected to be relatively cautious. Therefore, it is expected that crude oil prices will maintain a strong trend in August and September, but the room for growth is relatively limited.

Source: China News Service