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Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba Visual China File Photo

From August 4 to 8, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba started his fourth round of African visits since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, visiting Malawi, Zambia and Mauritius in succession. This is also the first time in history that a Ukrainian foreign minister has visited these countries. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement, "All meetings will focus on developing bilateral relations on the basis of mutual respect and common interests. One of the topics will be the participation of African countries in global efforts to restore a just peace for Ukraine and the world."

As the war drags on, Russia and Ukraine are increasingly paying attention to the position of the global South countries in the conflict. Before Kuleba's visit to Africa, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov had just completed his sixth African visit in the past two years in June, visiting Guinea, Congo (Brazzaville), Burkina Faso and Chad, and reiterated that Russia will fulfill its commitment to strengthen relations with African countries during the second Russia-Africa Summit last summer and promote the implementation of cooperation agreements with African countries in the fields of defense, food security, education and other fields.

In addition to competing to launch a diplomatic "charm offensive" towards African countries, the "secret war" between Russia and Ukraine on the African continent seems to be surfacing. Just as Kuleba was visiting Africa, an attack in Mali was causing Ukraine to fall into a diplomatic storm, and was also seen by the outside world as the latest manifestation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict gradually expanding to the global level.

Tuareg separatist forces in northern Mali recently claimed to have attacked Malian government forces and their Russian allies in an operation at the end of July. Andri Yusov, spokesman for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's General Intelligence Directorate, later commented on the attack, saying that the Malian separatist forces had obtained "all necessary information" and "launched a successful military operation" against Russian personnel, but did not disclose more details. This statement is also considered to be a possible hint that Ukraine provided relevant intelligence to the separatist forces.The Malian transitional government subsequently accused Ukraine of violating Mali's sovereignty and "supporting terrorism" on the 4th, and announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Ukraine. Niger also expressed solidarity with Mali and announced on the 6th that it would "immediately" sever diplomatic relations with Ukraine.

"Dark War" emerges

The attack in Mali at the end of July has shifted some of the attention from the exchange of fire between Russia and Ukraine in the European battlefield to the African continent. After the mutiny in Mali in August 2020, the National People's Redemption Committee established by the mutinous soldiers formed a transitional government. After taking office, relations with the former colonial master France deteriorated. At the same time, it sought security assistance from Russia and established close ties with the Wagner Group.

According to a Xinhua News Agency report on August 6, Tuareg separatist forces in northern Mali said on the 1st of this month that they killed 47 Malian soldiers and 84 armed personnel of the Russian private military entity Wagner in a battle at a military camp at the end of last month, and captured many people. On July 29, Ukrainian media quoted Yusov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's General Intelligence Directorate, as saying that the Malian anti-government forces "obtained all the necessary information and things beyond information" and "launched a successful military operation" against Russian personnel. He refused to disclose more details, but said "there will be follow-up."

On July 30, the Kyiv Post claimed that it had received a photo of Tuareg separatist forces with the Ukrainian flag from a military source. According to the British Times, Kirillo Budanov, director of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's Main Intelligence Directorate, has been planning to attack Wagner Group personnel in Mali since 2023, while assisting Tuareg separatist forces.

Regarding the attack on Wagner in Mali, the British newspaper The Guardian commented that the struggle between Russia and Ukraine has "expanded to a global level." Yusof's statement on the matter was also considered to be a hint that Ukraine had provided relevant intelligence to the separatist armed forces, which immediately triggered a chain reaction in African countries.

On August 4, the transitional government of Mali announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Ukraine, accusing Yussof of "acknowledging Ukraine's involvement in armed terrorist organizations" in his recent remarks, which led to the "brutal attack" that caused casualties among Malian soldiers. Ukraine's actions "violated Mali's sovereignty, exceeded the scope of foreign interference, constituted a clear aggression against Mali, and supported international terrorism."

On the 5th, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the Malian transitional government's decision to sever diplomatic ties with Ukraine without an in-depth investigation was "short-sighted and hasty", and said that "there is no evidence to support" Mali's accusations against Ukraine. Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada's Foreign Policy and Inter-Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, believes that the breakdown of Ukrainian-Mali relations will not bring serious consequences to Ukraine, nor will it affect Ukraine's relations with the global South, because the two countries have not established stable relations before.

In addition to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, which are also ruled by military governments, have also condemned Ukraine. Among them, Niger announced on August 6 that it would "immediately" sever diplomatic relations with Ukraine, condemning Ukraine's support for "terrorist organizations" and expressing the hope that the UN Security Council would make a ruling on Ukraine's "aggression." Prior to this, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger had just announced the establishment of the "Sahel Confederation of States" on July 6 this year. Last September, the three countries also signed the "Liptako-Gourma Charter," according to which when any contracting party is attacked, the other contracting parties must provide assistance, including military support.

Russia's Sputnik News Agency reported on August 7 that Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova told the Sputnik News Agency that Ukraine, unable to defeat Russia on the battlefield, decided to open a "second battlefield" in Africa and condone terrorist organizations in African countries friendly to Moscow.

Before the Mali attack in late July, Russia and Ukraine had already started military wrestling on the African continent. The Wall Street Journal revealed in March this year that as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has almost reached a stalemate, a global war for weapons and economic resources is taking shape, and both sides of the conflict are preparing for a war that may last for many years. In Africa, Sudan is becoming a new battlefield for Russia and Ukraine because of its rich weapons and gold resources.

According to reports, Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RFS) maintains close ties with Russia, and its soldiers are trained by Wagner, who then provide security for Russia's gold mining in Sudan. At the same time, the years of conflict have led to the indirect flow of weapons from various countries into Sudan. Abdel Fattah Burhan, Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, quietly provided weapons to Kiev after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and asked Ukraine for help when he was besieged by the RFS army. Ukraine sent troops to Sudan and provided military training to Sudanese armed forces soldiers, teaching them tactics that have proven effective against the Russian army on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield.

The report said that sending troops to Africa is a bold new attempt by Ukraine that comes with huge political risks. It aims to disrupt Russia's overseas military and economic activities, make Russia pay a higher price for the war, and position Ukraine itself as a "fortress" against Russia.

The U.S. Capitol Hill newspaper also pointed out in an analytical article published in early July this year that Ukraine's intervention in Sudan has achieved some key goals, including weakening Russia's influence in the region, cracking down on Russia's resource exploitation operations in Sudan and its ability to circumvent Western sanctions, and may also force Russia to transfer some resources from the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield in Europe to Africa.

Sergey Sukhankin, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a conservative U.S. defense policy think tank, believes that some kind of agreement must have been reached between Ukraine and its Western allies so that the West would provide military support to Ukraine if it attacked Russian troops in Africa.

Regarding whether Ukraine has deployed troops to Sudan, the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Budanov, declined to comment. But he said: “War is risky, we are in a full-scale war with Russia... They have troops in different parts of the world, and we sometimes try to strike them.”

Ukraine wants to correct "strategic mistakes"

As Ukrainian intelligence officials' remarks on the events in Mali sparked controversy, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba was on his latest round of visits to Africa since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, hoping to win support for Ukraine from the global South while countering Russia's growing influence in Africa.

According to a report by Reference News on August 5, citing the website of the Russian newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets, Yermak, director of the Ukrainian presidential office, said that in order to successfully host the second peace summit, Ukraine will try to avoid repeating the failure to gain support from key countries in the global South at the first summit. This is also the purpose of Kuleba's visit to Africa.

According to information provided by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kuleba will hold talks with leaders, foreign ministers, business and cultural figures from Malawi, Zambia and Mauritius during this visit, but the key topics will be focused on different issues: In Malawi, Ukraine hopes that its important role in food security will be discussed, and Ukraine will share its experience and technology in the agricultural field with the Malawi side. In Zambia, the two sides plan to exchange views on the development of bilateral relations, political dialogue and cooperation within international organizations. In Mauritius, one of the richest countries in Africa, attracting Mauritian companies to invest and participate in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction has become a special topic of the talks between the two sides.

Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, although Ukraine was an important food supplier to Africa, Africa was not among the top priorities of Ukraine's foreign policy. Before 2022, Ukraine only had 10 embassies in Africa, far fewer than Russia's 43 embassies in Africa. In an interview with Deutsche Welle (DW) in June, Iliya Kusa, a Ukrainian international relations expert, said that considering the deep historical relations between many African countries and Russia can be traced back to the Soviet era, "Ukraine's failure to show that it also has part of this Soviet legacy" is a "strategic mistake."

In March 2022, when the United Nations General Assembly voted for the first time on a resolution calling on Russia to stop its military operations, 28 of the 54 African countries voted in favor, Eritrea opposed, 17 countries abstained, and 8 countries were absent from the vote. A year later, in a vote on a similar resolution, about half of the abstentions still came from Africa. At the same time, most African countries still refused to join the sanctions against Russia.

The limited support from Africa has obviously attracted the attention of Ukraine, prompting it to start correcting its previous "strategic mistakes". Ukraine appointed a special representative for Africa and the Middle East in July 2022, and also established an embassy in Africa to enhance high-level interactions with African countries. Foreign Minister Kuleba also visited Africa three times in 2022 and 2023.

After the Black Sea Food Agreement expired, Russia and Ukraine also competed to "donate grain" to Africa. In January this year, Russia said that it had fulfilled the promise made at the second "Russia-Africa Summit" last year to deliver 200,000 tons of food to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic and Eritrea for free. Yermak said in July this year that under the framework of the "Ukrainian Food" humanitarian plan, Ukraine has delivered more than 220,000 tons of agricultural products to 10 countries in Africa and Asia, and plans to continue to increase food supply to Africa in the future.

Although Ukraine is accelerating its pace to establish closer relations with Africa, Kuleba admitted in an interview with reporters in November last year that Ukraine's "return on investment in Africa is quite low." At the Swiss Peace Summit in June this year, only 11 of the approximately 80 countries that signed the summit's joint statement were from Africa.

In a research report, the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS) attributed the reasons why African countries remain neutral to four categories: in terms of regime security, Russia has established contacts with the ruling elites of many African countries and provided various forms of security assistance; in the economic field, many countries are heavily dependent on imports of Russian wheat, fertilizers and other agricultural products. Although acknowledging that the expiration of the Black Sea Food Agreement poses a threat to food security, Africa also emphasizes that the sanctions imposed by the West have also led to price increases and supply chain disruptions; from a historical perspective, the Soviet Union once supported the African national liberation movement, and the political elites and the public in many countries still remember the Soviet Union's anti-colonial and anti-imperialist policies. In contrast, the reputation of some European countries has been damaged by their colonial atrocities. Their acceptance of Ukrainian refugees and their viewing of African and Middle Eastern refugees as security threats have also made Africa dissatisfied.

When talking about the reasons why African countries have a cold attitude towards Ukraine, Nigerian policy analyst Ovigwe Eguegu said that Ukraine's voice has been drowned out by Western countries, which have lost credibility in many parts of Africa, and "those who speak for Ukraine are no longer welcome on the African continent."

Russia accelerates its “return to Africa”

On August 5, the last group of U.S. troops left the military base in the desert in northern Niger. The Washington Post said that the U.S. military has invested in Niger for more than a decade, with a maximum of 1,100 troops stationed there. This withdrawal comes at a time when Russia's influence in Africa is increasing, which is undoubtedly a major setback for the U.S. strategy. Two years ago, also in August, France announced the completion of its withdrawal from Mali. Three months later, France officially announced the end of the eight-year "Crescent Dunes" military operation in the Sahel region of Africa.

The Sahel is regarded as one of the most turbulent regions in the world. It has been plagued by poverty, corruption, ethnic conflicts and the influence of foreign forces for many years. The rise of terrorism in recent years has made local people increasingly disappointed with Western countries that are unable to resolve the security dilemma. Since 2020, military coups have broken out in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Niger and other countries in the Sahel region. After the pro-Western government was overthrown, the anti-terrorism security architecture previously dominated by Western countries has undergone tremendous changes. Many countries have begun to seek closer military and political ties with Russia and cooperate with Russia in non-mercenary forces to combat domestic rebels and extremist forces, which has also given Russia the opportunity to fill the "vacuum".

The New York Times cited insiders in June this year to disclose that Russia has long relied on the Wagner Group led by Prigozhin to carry out operations in Africa. Since Prigozhin died in a plane crash last year, the Russian Ministry of Defense has taken control of Wagner's mercenaries in Africa and placed them under the larger "Africa Corps". At the end of last year, hundreds of instructors from the organization arrived in Burkina Faso. Since April this year, the organization has also sent about 100 instructors to Niger to train the Nigerian army. Previously, this mission has been led by the United States and European countries. In addition, in Libya, a region that Russia has long regarded as a logistics center for military deployment in sub-Saharan Africa, Wagner's activities have also been incorporated into the Africa Corps.

In March this year, Michael Langley, commander of the US Africa Command, expressed concern about Russia's gradual replacement of Western influence in Africa, saying that "Russia is indeed trying to take over Central Africa and the Sahel region."

In fact, Russia's ties with African countries can be traced back to the Soviet era. After the Cold War began, the Soviet Union began to provide assistance to African countries with socialist tendencies, and since then, Russia has established deep ties with Africa. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia once placed Africa on the "periphery" of its foreign policy. However, in recent years, the call for "returning to Africa" ​​has become increasingly strong in Russia.

Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russian international affairs experts Andrei Maslov and Dmitry Suslov pointed out in a report in January 2022 that under Western sanctions after the Crimean crisis in 2014, the huge potential of the African goods and services market is extremely attractive to Russia. Among Russia's exports, more than one-third of Russian grain and a large part of animal and vegetable oils, automobiles, optical equipment and printing products are exported to Africa. On the other hand, the report also mentioned that "no African country regards Russia as an enemy, former colonizer or potential hegemon". Despite the pressure from the West, African countries generally maintain a friendly attitude towards Russia, which is extremely important to Russia. The holding of the first "Russia-Africa Summit" in 2019 is a landmark event in Russia's adjustment of its "return to Africa" ​​policy.

Russia’s need to seek support in Africa has become more urgent after 2022. The wording of Africa in Russia’s new foreign policy concept for 2023 highlights the growing importance of Africa to Russia, calling Africa a “unique and influential center of world development.”

Russia's emphasis on Africa is also reflected in the increasingly close high-level interactions. In addition to the second "Russia-Africa Summit" to be held in Russia in 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has visited Africa six times since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The most recent visit took place in early June this year, during the preparations for the Swiss Peace Summit, in which Russia did not participate. The political support expressed by Guinea, Congo (Brazzaville), Burkina Faso and Chad is regarded as the most important achievement of Lavrov's visit. The above countries stated that if they want to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, they need to let both sides of the conflict sit at the negotiating table at the same time.

Other analysts believe that the destinations of Lavrov's visit this time may indicate that Russia is focusing on its relations with the Sahel countries. For these countries, security is the most urgent need at present.

It is worth noting that almost at the same time as Lavrov, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov also visited Africa. Previously, Yevkurov visited the Sahel region twice in September and December 2023. The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) quoted a report from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in February this year, saying that Yevkurov had met with the military of Libya, Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Mali and Niger in September last year together with Andrei Evryanov, who took over Wagner's African business and was from the Russian GRU special forces, in order to use this visit to show the military that Prigozhin's resignation does not mean the end of military cooperation. In addition, Russia also hopes to obtain mining concessions for important resources such as uranium, titanium and aluminum in various countries, replace the West, and control the right to obtain key minerals and resources in Africa, as a return for countries' "payment" to Russia.

The New York Times reported in June that in the past year, some politicians, civil society activists and ordinary people in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso said in interviews that Russia is fulfilling its security promises and helping to end the protracted war on terrorism. But Malian security analyst Soumaila Lah pointed out that people living in large cities in these countries believe that Russia's presence is necessary; while in remote areas, local residents have noticed the use of torture, arbitrary arrests and assassinations by mercenaries. "In these places, they no longer want mercenaries."