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On August 6, local time, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) announced that Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar will succeed Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in an attack in the Iranian capital Tehran a week ago, as the new chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau.

In a statement, Hamas expressed confidence in Sinwar's "leadership at this sensitive stage" and praised Haniyeh as a "wise and open-minded leader." Meshaal, who was once seen as a potential successor to Haniyeh, also supported the decision and said it was "loyalty to Gaza and its people." Israel's Haaretz quoted Hamas sources as saying that the appointment of Sinwar was a "vote of confidence" in the current leadership of Gaza.

Sinwar's ascension to top Hamas leadership further consolidates his position within the group and underscores the control of Hamas' Gaza hardliners over the group following its Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

Hamas leader Sinwar. Photo/The Paper

"We will find another Chania"

When then-Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Haniyeh was killed in a deadly explosion in Tehran, it was only about seven hours after Hezbollah's top military commander Shukur was attacked in Beirut.

Israel's responses to the two attacks, which took place 1,500 kilometers apart, were very different.

Regarding the targeted killing in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, Israel said it was a retaliation for Hezbollah's rocket attack on the Golan Heights, which killed 12 children and young people. But about a week after Haniyeh was killed, the Israeli authorities have not announced responsibility for Haniyeh's death.

On August 1, in Najaf, Iraq, Iraqi and Iranian clergy and officials mourned Haniyeh. Photo/Visual China

After Hamas' cross-border raid on Israel last year killed about 1,200 people, Haniyeh watched the attack on TV at his office in Qatar. The Hamas-run TV station broadcast the scene at the time, with Haniyeh smiling and leading several Hamas senior officials to prostrate themselves on the ground, "praying heartfeltly for the victory of our people and country."

On the tenth day of the Gaza war, Haniyeh's home in Gaza was razed to the ground. Over the past nine months, Israel has killed more than 60 of Haniyeh's relatives in Gaza. In April this year, Haniyeh received news of the death of seven of his children and grandchildren while visiting patients from Gaza at a hospital in Doha. He later said that the death of his children would not force him to change his negotiating position. On the contrary, "with this pain and blood, we create hope, future and freedom for our people, our cause and our country."

Haniyeh's family came from the village of Jura, near the city of Ashkelon in Israel today. During the 1948 war, the family was expelled by the Israeli army and moved to the Shati refugee camp in Gaza. Growing up in turmoil, Haniyeh does not remember his exact date of birth, but he was probably born between 1962 and 1963.

In the 1980s, Haniyeh, who studied Arabic literature at the Islamic University of Gaza, began to be active in the political arena. At the end of 1987, Hamas was born in the first Palestinian uprising, and Haniyeh, who was about 24 years old, became a founding member. Because of his participation in activities against Israel, Haniyeh was imprisoned three times in the following years.

Haniyeh is a moderate within Hamas and has always been known for advocating Palestinian national unity. After the PLO signed the Oslo Accords with Israel, Arafat met with Haniyeh to understand Hamas' attitude towards the newly established Palestinian Authority. The middleman who arranged the meeting said that Arafat was very satisfied with the flexibility shown by Haniyeh. According to the peace process, Palestine held its first general election in history in 1996. Haniyeh, who advocated that Hamas should participate in the election, was a minority in the radical organization at the time. Haniyeh once froze the status of Hamas members and prepared to form a new political group to run for election, but this was not realized due to internal pressure.

After 1997, Haniyeh entered a fast-track of promotion. After being released from an Israeli prison, Hamas spiritual leader Yassin promoted Haniyeh to be the director of his office. Yassin injured his spine in an accident when he was young and has been dependent on a wheelchair for life. Eight years in prison further deteriorated his physical condition, and his vision and hearing were seriously damaged. The tall Haniyeh was responsible for carrying Yassin up and down the stairs and attending meetings. Nasser Al-Kidwa, a former Palestinian Authority official and Arafat's nephew, said that Haniyeh's care for Yassin made him indispensable. "Their relationship became close, and this became the starting point for him to enter the top."

On July 28, a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams was hit by a rocket. Photo/Visual China

After Hamas unexpectedly won its first Palestinian Legislative Council election in 2006, it formed a coalition government with Fatah, and Haniyeh was appointed prime minister. Israeli media pointed out that Haniyeh was able to take this position partly because he was rarely involved in Hamas's violent activities and was mainly responsible for education, health and charity activities within the organization. However, Haniyeh's tenure as prime minister was short-lived. Due to the boycott of Hamas by Western countries and the continuous violent conflicts between Hamas and Fatah, the coalition government was soon dissolved. In the years that followed, the differences between Fatah and Hamas deepened. However, according to some diplomats and researchers, Haniyeh has not given up on reconciliation with Fatah. In recent years, Haniyeh, Abbas and other Fatah leaders still meet or talk on the phone from time to time to discuss various issues.

Haniyeh succeeded Meshaal, who had served for nearly 20 years, as the head of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2017 after a contentious internal election. The handover marked a shift in power from Hamas leaders who had long lived abroad to those in Gaza. But soon after, Haniyeh, like many of the top political factions in the organization, left Gaza. For the next 14 years, he shuttled between Turkey, Iran and Qatar to win support for Hamas from regional countries.

During his term, Haniyeh repaired the relationship between Hamas and Iran that had been broken after the Syrian civil war and eased Hamas' financial difficulties. Previously, Hamas and Iran had a rift because of their support for different camps in the Syrian civil war, which led to Iran withdrawing tens of millions of dollars in monthly funding. During Haniyeh's term, Iran resumed and gradually increased its financial, weapons and technical support to Hamas.

In addition, Haniyeh also served as a bridge between other exiled Hamas leaders and Gaza hardliners such as Sinwar. After Haniyeh's promotion, Sinwar succeeded Haniyeh as the leader of Hamas in Gaza.

Tahani Mustafa, a senior Palestinian analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that Haniyeh was able to unite the many different factions within Hamas and maintain a degree of cohesion that many other Palestinian factions do not have. Nasser Al-Kidwa, a former Palestinian Authority official who has had dealings with Haniyeh, said: "Haniyeh was able to confront Sinwar because he is from Gaza. This could be a weakness for Meshaal, who was born in the West Bank." In 1967, the Third Middle East War forced Meshaal and his family to flee the West Bank. Since then, he has been in exile and rarely sets foot on Palestinian soil.

A survey conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in June this year showed that 14% of Palestinians surveyed said that if elections were held in the West Bank and Gaza, Haniyeh would be their preferred presidential candidate. In this survey, Haniyeh's support rate was second only to Marwan Barghouti, the Fatah leader who is imprisoned in an Israeli prison and is known as the "Palestinian Mandela."

After the attack on Haniyeh on July 31, Palestinian President Abbas declared that day a day of mourning and lowered the flag to half-mast. In the statement, Abbas called on the Palestinian people to unite and stressed the need to remain patient and firm in the face of Israeli occupation.

Shlaim, a resident of the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank, told the media: "As Palestinians, our best response to this killing is unity. I hope the Palestinian leaders can realize this, and Haniyeh's political efforts are for this purpose. Israel wants to divide us, but we can't let this happen. We will find another Haniyeh."

On August 2, billboards on the streets of Tel Aviv, Israel, displayed portraits of Haniyeh (left) and Hamas military commander Mohammed Dave, with the words "assassinated" written in Hebrew. Photo/Visual China

"Sinwar has always had the final say in Gaza"

"How can mediation succeed if one party assassinates the other party's negotiator?" Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Hamad Al Thani accused Israel of sabotaging the peace talks in a statement. Does Haniyeh's assassination mean that Israel believes that it is meaningless to continue negotiations, or that Israel believes that he is no longer a key factor in ceasefire negotiations?

The outside world initially assumed that they could put pressure on Sinwar, who was commanding the Gaza battlefield, to reach an agreement by threatening the Hamas leadership in Qatar, but this plan did not work. At the beginning of the ceasefire negotiations in November last year, US Secretary of State Blinken pressured Qatar to expel the senior Hamas leaders in Doha, trying to use this as a bargaining chip. This proposal was rejected by Qatar. In March this year, after Blinken again asked Qatar to "expel the guests", Qatar has expressed its willingness to do so. In the same month, according to Arab media reports, Haniyeh and Sinwar had serious differences. The latter insisted on making Israel's full withdrawal from Gaza a prerequisite for ceasefire negotiations, making the negotiations difficult to maintain.

It was not until May that Sinwar changed his attitude and gave up this condition. Israel's Haaretz newspaper quoted sources as saying that after March this year, Haniyeh's role in the negotiations had become increasingly smaller, but the Gaza people's calls for an end to the fighting, the weakening of the military, and the loss of strategic assets such as the Philadelphia Corridor and the Rafah Port increased the pressure on Sinwar to cease fire.

Sinwar and Haniyeh are peers with similar backgrounds. Their ancestors were both refugees from Ashkelon. They both grew up in refugee camps and were both promoted by Hamas spiritual leader Yassin.

Although there are many similarities in the first 20 years of their lives, the two men's subsequent trajectories are very different. Sinwar participated in the creation of Hamas's internal security force, which is dedicated to punishing Palestinians who provide intelligence to Israel or violate Islamic law. Sinwar is known for his cruel methods. After being arrested by Israel in the late 1980s, he confessed to many crimes during interrogation, including strangling a Palestinian suspected of colluding with Israel with a kufia headscarf.

Sinwar viewed prison as an "academy" to learn Hebrew, Israeli social psychology and history. During his more than 20 years in prison, he mastered Hebrew and considered himself an expert on Israeli affairs. In Sinwar's view, one of the weaknesses of Israeli society is that they are willing to make great concessions for the hostages. After the attack on October 7 last year, Sinwar proposed to exchange the hostages taken to Gaza for all Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons. Sinwar seemed confident that the deal would succeed, but it turned out to be a miscalculation.

From an organizational structure point of view, Hamas operates in a similar way to a "federation", with four "alliances" in Gaza, the West Bank, overseas institutions and Israeli prisons. Each alliance regularly elects its own advisory committee and local leaders. Sinwar was elected leader of Hamas prisoners in 2004, and this resume enabled him to be promoted quickly after he was released and returned to Gaza in 2011.

At first, Sinwar tried to unite the Palestinian factions into a unified front, but with little success. After realizing that "there is no news without bloodshed," Sinwar turned to a more radical military strategy. But Sinwar's radicalism and arbitrariness angered Hamas's overseas political elite, represented by Haniyeh and Meshaal. They tried to remove Sinwar from his position as director of the Gaza Political Bureau in the 2021 internal elections and replace him with Political Bureau member Nizar Awadallah. The showdown between Sinwar and Awadallah was decided only after three rounds of voting. After successfully re-elected, Sinwar began to purge Haniyeh's camp, and most of the latter's allies in Gaza were forced to resign.

After taking control of Gaza in 2007, Hamas has shifted its focus from overseas to Gaza, where it has accumulated strong power. Only in Gaza does Hamas have a complete military force. Analysts believe that the real power lies in the hands of Sinwar and Hamas military commander Dave, and Haniyeh has been gradually marginalized by Sinwar after leaving Gaza.

Some reports indicate that Sinwar did not share exact details of the planned attack with senior Hamas leaders abroad, and Haniyeh was kept in the dark until hours before the attack on October 7. Reuters reported that Hamas leaders seemed shocked by the timing and scale of the attack.

The Economist magazine described Haniyeh's role after October 7 as more like a "postman". As the political leader of Hamas, Haniyeh is less involved in military affairs. He represents Hamas in ceasefire negotiations with Israel, but it is up to Gaza's Sinwar to decide whether to continue the war or seek a ceasefire.

"The death of Haniyeh is a political victory for Netanyahu. But Haniyeh cannot influence Hamas' fighting in Gaza, where Sinwar has had the final say since 2017," said Bilal Saab, an associate researcher at the British think tank Chatham House.

On September 6, 2020, Haniyeh was welcomed during his visit to Ain Halewa Refugee Camp, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, near the city of Sidon in southern Lebanon. Photo/Visual China

Targeted killings that failed

There is a long list of Hamas leaders who have been killed by Israel.

In 1996, Ayyash, a Hamas military commander who planned several suicide bombings, was killed by a bomb installed in a mobile phone by Israeli agents. In 2002, the Israeli army bombed the neighborhood where Shehadeh, the founder of the armed faction of Hamas, lived, killing 15 people including Shehadeh. In 2004, Hamas' spiritual leader Yassin and his successor Rantisi died in Israeli air strikes within a month. In 2012, Hamas military commander Jabari was killed by an Israeli drone on the streets of Gaza. A draft agreement on a long-term ceasefire with Israel was placed in his car.

Gerson Baskin, an Israeli hostage negotiation expert who had indirect contact with Jabari, told China Newsweek that Jabari was leading Hamas in mediation at the time, "The draft he had was already the fourth or fifth version, but it was not yet time to sign an agreement."

Last November, after the ground military operation began in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated that he had instructed Israel's overseas intelligence agency Mossad to "assassinate all Hamas leaders wherever they are." In January this year, Israel launched an airstrike in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, killing Haniyeh's deputy and deputy chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, Arouri. In March, Gaza's "number three man" and deputy commander of the Qassam Brigades, Issa, died in an Israeli airstrike on an underground base in central Gaza. Earlier in July, Israel dropped eight bombs on the Gaza humanitarian zone of Mawasi, targeting Dave, a Hamas military commander and leader of the Qassam Brigades. After Haniyeh was assassinated, Israel confirmed Dave's death, but it has not yet been confirmed by Hamas.

Dave is Hamas's "number two" in Gaza, and took over Jabari's position after he was assassinated in 2012. Dave, like Sinwar, is from the refugee camp in Khan Yunis and joined Hamas during the first Palestinian uprising. Since the 1990s, Dave has participated in the planning and implementation of many bus bombings and kidnappings of Israeli soldiers. He had previously escaped many Israeli assassination attempts, earning him the nickname "The Cat with Nine Lives."

After the outbreak of the Gaza War, Dave and Sinwar hid in Gaza's vast tunnel system for a long time. After a long period of surveillance, Israel waited for Dave to meet Rafaa Salama, commander of Hamas's Khan Younis Brigade, at the latter's villa. Dave took the risk of returning to the surface because, on the one hand, he had health problems caused by his previous injuries, and on the other hand, the tunnels were damaged in more than nine months of fighting, and it was becoming increasingly difficult to command the war underground.

In the 20th century, Israel’s actions to behead and arrest regional resistance leaders had greater impact. For example, in the years before the Oslo Accords, Israel assassinated Arafat’s right-hand men; during the Second Intifada, Israel arrested Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti and the secretary-general of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Ahmed Sadat. This was done not only to eliminate direct threats, but also to disrupt the balance within the resistance organizations and cultivate a leadership that was more aligned with Israeli interests.

On August 2, in Doha, Qatar, Meshaal (center right) attended the memorial and funeral ceremony for Haniyeh. Photo/The Paper

However, assassinations in recent years have often had the opposite effect, sometimes leading to the emergence of stronger and more resilient leaders in an organization, and possibly reinvigorating the military wing of a target organization by injecting new blood. In addition, these assassinations have the effect of consolidating unity and resolve, bridging the gap between radical factions and the general public.

According to Abdul Jawad Omar, a scholar at the Department of Philosophy and Cultural Studies at Birzeit University in Palestine, this change occurred because Abbas's compromise with Israel did not bring positive feedback, which made the Palestinians more determined to believe that only resistance can bring about a strategic change. Therefore, the Palestinians reshaped the resistance movement and institutionalized the organizational structure of the movement. Even if the assassination of important leaders may cause tactical setbacks, it will not lead to the collapse of its actions.

"Now these targeted killings (by Israel) are no longer aimed at weakening the power of the opposition, but mainly as a tool to rally Israeli national sentiment and demonstrate Israel's intelligence and operational capabilities," Omar said.

Audrey Cronin, director of the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategic and Technology and professor of international security, has conducted research specifically on radical organizations around the world, pointing out that organizations that collapse due to decapitation operations are often small, hierarchical, engage in personality cults, and usually lack viable succession plans. The average active time of these organizations is less than ten years. Groups with a longer history and a higher degree of networking can reorganize and survive. Over the past decade, many studies have pointed out that targeted killings have had little impact on Hamas's strength and goals.

Hamas in the “Post-Haniyeh Era”

After nearly 40 years of development, Hamas has become a highly networked organization. The Political Bureau is Hamas' main decision-making body, consisting of 15 members, who decide Hamas' actions through consultation. Traditionally, Hamas selects political leaders through internal elections. Haniyeh's term was originally scheduled to expire in 2025, and his succession was being discussed within Hamas before he was killed in an attack. Jeroen Gunning, professor of Middle East politics and conflict studies at King's College London, pointed out that Hamas' horizontal leadership structure means that other senior officials can quickly take over Haniyeh's work.

On the surface, Hamas leaders are always united. However, the power struggles between different factions behind the scenes are fierce. In the view of Mhaimar Abusada, a professor of political science at Gaza's Al-Azhar University who now lives in Cairo, Haniyeh's death may change the power structure within Hamas, which is not conducive to those who want a ceasefire or support the "two-state solution." But what the specific impact will be, "much depends on who can replace Haniyeh in the short and long term after the internal elections."

Palestinian students from the Palestinian security forces affiliated with Hamas demonstrate military capabilities at the Law and Police Science Academy in Gaza City, September 9, 2022. Photo/Visual China

Before Hamas announced that Sinwar would succeed Haniyeh, the 67-year-old Meshaal, a survivor of the Israeli assassination attempt, was considered by the outside world to be the most powerful candidate. In September 1997, Netanyahu, who was serving as Israeli Prime Minister for the first time, ordered Mossad agents to go to Jordan and poison Meshaal, who was lobbying for international support for Hamas. After the incident, Jordanian King Hussein demanded that Israel hand over the antidote, otherwise he would tear up the peace agreement signed by the two countries three years ago. This failed assassination attempt not only strengthened Meshaal's reputation in Palestine, but also led to the release of Hamas spiritual leader Yassin.

Meshaal served as the chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau for a long time, leading Hamas to win the 2006 parliamentary election and seize power in Gaza. Before handing over power to Haniyeh in 2017, Meshaal submitted a new charter that accepted the prospect of establishing a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, which was equivalent to de facto recognition of Israel. But in January this year, Meshaal publicly rejected the two-state solution and called for the eradication of Israel.

In 2021, Meshaal tried to unite other Hamas overseas senior officials to oust Sinwar, but to no avail. It is reported that the two still exclude each other. When asked about this in an interview with German media in April this year, Meshaal just smiled. He said that different environments naturally produce different experiences and perspectives, and each movement has diversity and different directions.

Meshaal, who comes from a middle-class family in the West Bank, received his university education in Kuwait and worked as a physics teacher before joining Hamas. He has lived abroad for a long time and only visited Gaza briefly in 2012. Sinwar, on the other hand, was born in a Gaza refugee camp and has hardly left Gaza except for serving a 20-year sentence in Israel. In the Syrian civil war that broke out in 2012, Meshaal supported the rebels, causing a rift between Hamas and Tehran, which was repaired years later with the mediation of Haniyeh. In contrast, Sinwar has always had a close relationship with Iran and its allies.

"Before Haniyeh was assassinated, the focus of discussions within Hamas was whether to lay down arms and integrate into the new Palestinian security/police forces. As far as I know, Sinwar opposed any discussion about laying down arms. Sinwar obviously regards Hezbollah as a role model for Hamas in Gaza, that is, ruling the place but not assuming management responsibilities." Israeli hostage negotiation expert Gershon Baskin told China Newsweek that Hamas' decision to elevate Sinwar's status sends a message to the Palestinian people and the world that they must fight to the death and never compromise.

"I am sure that ceasefire negotiations will be put on hold for a while. No one in Hamas dares to talk about a ceasefire with Israel now or in the near future," said Abu Saada, a professor at Al-Azhar University in Gaza. Mustafazi of the International Crisis Group pointed out that after such a blow, if Hamas easily succumbs to Israel's demands, it would be tantamount to "political suicide."

U.S. and Arab officials mediating the talks acknowledged that Haniyeh's death made a ceasefire more difficult, but they also insisted that the negotiations had not failed and that they were trying to salvage a deal.

Published in the 1152th issue of China Newsweek magazine on August 12, 2024

Magazine title: Hamas in disarray

Author: Chen Jialin