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A week after the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) political bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an attack, the Hamas leadership has elected a new successor.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on July 6 local time, Hamas issued a statement saying that Yahya Sinwar replaced Haniyeh as the leader of Hamas's Political Bureau.

Sinwar is considered by Israel to be one of the masterminds of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 last year. It is reported that he is hiding in a tunnel under the Gaza Strip and is the main decision-maker of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Sinwar is seen as a representative of the "hardline"

Sinwar was born in 1962 in a refugee camp in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. Now 61 years old, he is the main founder of Hamas' security agency.

In 1988, Sinwar was convicted by Israel for allegedly killing two Israeli soldiers and was imprisoned for more than 20 years. In prison, he learned Hebrew and learned about Israel's domestic political affairs. In 2011, Sinwar was released as part of a prisoner exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas.

After his release, Sinwar's status within Hamas continued to rise. In 2012, he was elected a member of the Hamas Political Bureau and became the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip in 2017.

In recent months, Israel has announced that it has taken action to kill several senior Hamas officials, including Saleh al-Arouri, deputy head of the Hamas political bureau, and military commander Mohammad Dave, making Sinwar one of the most important figures within Hamas.

On July 31, local time, Hamas confirmed that Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, the capital of Iran, in the early hours of the same day. This created a "power vacuum" in the leadership of Hamas. After two days of long negotiations in Doha, Hamas decided to let Sinwar take over Haniyeh's position.

According to people familiar with the matter, two days of intensive meetings discussed many possible scenarios, but only two names were mentioned - Sinwar and Hamas Politburo member Mohammed Ismail Darwish. In the end, Hamas chose Sinwar.

Hamas later emphasized in a statement that the organization decided to choose Sinwar as the leader of its political bureau after "in-depth and extensive consultations and deliberations" within its leadership body. This choice reflects Hamas' confidence in Sinwar in "a sensitive period and a complex regional and international situation."

Traditionally, exiled leaders have maintained an overall leadership position within Hamas to handle relations with foreign allies and diplomatic affairs. Some analysts believe that Sinwar's appointment as leader of the Hamas Political Bureau marks that the leadership of the Gaza Strip, especially the armed faction known as the "Qassam Brigades", has replaced the exiled leaders.

Sinwar's predecessor, Haniyeh, was a relatively moderate and pragmatic figure within Hamas and a key figure in the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. He led the Hamas delegation to participate in the negotiations mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the United States to release the hostages. He is generally considered to be the middleman between Israel and Sinwar.

Compared to Haniyeh, Sinwar is seen as a "hardliner" who has been strengthening Hamas' military strength for many years. Israel has always regarded Sinwar as one of the masterminds of Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7 last year. It is reported that Haniyeh has almost no direct control over Hamas members in the Gaza Strip, and Sinwar did not inform the political leadership, including Haniyeh, when he launched the attack.

A Hamas official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Sinwar’s rise in political status within Hamas was a challenging message to Israel: “They killed Haniyeh, a flexible person who was open to solutions, and now they have to deal with Sinwar and the military leadership.”

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"Two weeks ago, despite Sinwar's strong influence in the Gaza Strip, few thought he would become the next leader of Hamas." Hugh Lovatt, an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the killing of the relatively moderate Haniyeh not only paved the way for Sinwar to take full control of Hamas, but also seemed to turn the organization in a tougher direction.

The appointment of Sinwar as the leader of the Hamas Political Bureau has further cast doubt on the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement in this round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some sources believe that Hamas may strengthen its position in the negotiations, making it more difficult to reach an agreement.

After receiving the news of the appointment, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken emphasized the importance of continuing to advance the ceasefire agreement, saying that Sinwar has been and remains the main decision maker for reaching a ceasefire. "Sinwar must decide whether to advance the ceasefire, which will obviously help many Palestinian people who are in desperate need of help, including women, children and men caught in the war. It really depends on him."

Israel's response did not mention the ceasefire agreement much, but pointed directly at Sinwar. Israeli military spokesman Hagari accused Sinwar of being responsible for the attack on Israel on October 7 last year, and Israel will continue to hunt him down. "Sinwar has only one place to go, and that is to be with Dave and other terrorists who participated in the attack on October 7 last year."

In fact, in recent times, Israel's policy of killing senior Hamas leaders has also led to escalating tensions between US President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Some US media pointed out that Biden accused Netanyahu of deliberately undermining efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement in a phone call last week. Netanyahu believes that although this will temporarily delay negotiations, by putting pressure on Hamas, a ceasefire will eventually be achieved faster.

Hamas has now sent some signals regarding the ceasefire negotiations. Hamas spokesman and political bureau member Osama Hamdan said that Sinwar will continue the ceasefire negotiations and believes that the problem in the negotiations does not lie in the changes in Hamas. He accused the United States and Israel of failing to reach an agreement.

However, it is unclear how Sinwar will be able to communicate with Hamas members, manage the group's daily political activities, and oversee ceasefire negotiations while in hiding.

"Hamas' choice to appoint Sinwar as the leader of the Political Bureau puts Gaza front and center," said political analyst Noor Odeh, noting that as far as ceasefire talks are concerned, this sends a signal that Gaza will lead the negotiations.

The appointment comes at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East, with Iran vowing to retaliate against Israel over the killing of Haniyeh and Lebanon's Hezbollah threatening to respond to Israel's airstrikes on Beirut, amid fears that the situation could escalate into a wider regional war.

Some analysts believe that Iran's attack on Israel will be short and limited, and targets may include military and economic facilities to achieve the goals of deterrence and "revenge", but it is estimated that it will not cross the line that could trigger a full-scale war in the Middle East.

Beijing News reporter Luan Ruoxi

Editor Zhang Lei Proofreader Zhang Yanjun