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Several Western media outlets have confirmed through different channels that Ukraine has received the first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets as foreign aid. However, compared to the ecstasy of Ukraine and Western media last year when the United States approved the provision of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, their attitudes are now much more pragmatic - more and more analysts believe that the F-16 may be too late for Ukraine's current situation.

F-16 fighter jets donated by the Netherlands to Ukraine

According to AFP on August 1, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis said on social media: "The F-16 has arrived in Ukraine, and another impossible thing has been achieved." Another unnamed US official also said that "the first batch of F-16s has been delivered." The US "Forbes" website mentioned that photos circulating on social media recently showed an F-16 flying over Lviv in western Ukraine. From the photo, it can be seen that the F-16 did not carry weapons or auxiliary fuel tanks, proving that it was likely to take off from a nearby air base.

F-16 photographed over Lviv

According to the U.S. website "Dynamics", after U.S. President Biden approved the provision of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine in May last year, Denmark, the Netherlands and other countries have approved the provision of about 85 second-hand F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Among them, the Netherlands has 24, Denmark has 19, Norway has 12, and Belgium has 30. In general, these are upgraded early models with the ability to launch AIM-120 medium-range air-to-air missiles, but there is a clear gap with the latest models in terms of fire control radar detection range and air maneuverability. It is difficult to win a direct confrontation with the Russian army's main active fighter jets.

Regarding Ukraine's acquisition of F-16 fighter jets, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said on August 1: "Their number will gradually decrease, they will be shot down... But, of course, these deliveries will not have any significant impact on the development of the war on the front line."

Even Ukraine and some Western analysts admit that Ukraine has received too few F-16s and "too late". France's Channel 24 website said on August 1 that the number of F-16 fighters delivered so far seems to be very small. The British Times quoted an informed source as saying that only six were delivered in the first batch. This number is expected to grow, but it is far lower than the number military analysts say Ukraine needs. Sergey Kushan, chairman of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, said Ukraine needs at least 60 aircraft to launch major operations. Oleksandr Ustinova, head of the Ukrainian Parliament's "Weapons and Ammunition Committee", said Ukraine needs nearly 120 F-16 fighters to significantly improve its air capabilities.

Ukraine may need nearly 120 F-16 fighters to significantly improve its air capabilities. Photo: File photo

The report also mentioned that the West's hesitation in providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets gave Russia ample time to prepare countermeasures. Western observers believe that if Ukraine had received sufficient air support during its counterattack last year, it might have been able to break through the Russian defense line, but now not only has the Russian army strengthened its countermeasures, but Ukraine's morale is also much lower than it was before. The "Forbes" website quoted Chris Haynes, an associate professor of international affairs and political science in the United States, as saying that Ukraine's recent low morale may undermine Kiev's recruitment of new soldiers. "From a political and practical point of view, the exposure of photos of F-16s flying over Ukraine may be most helpful in boosting morale. Ukraine's receipt of a few fighter jets may not have a significant impact on the battlefield, but photos of their arrival may enhance Ukraine's ability to maintain its war efforts, enabling it to eventually reach a better peace agreement."

Justin Bronk, a senior fellow in air power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute, said that these F-16s may be used mainly for defensive operations rather than direct confrontation with Russian fighter jets. They can provide deep air cover capabilities and may also help intercept suicide drones and cruise missiles launched by the Russian army, "although this is a very expensive way from an ammunition perspective."

Not only is the delivery speed of these F-16s far from meeting Ukraine's needs, but NATO's training of Ukrainian pilots is also seriously lagging behind. Bronk said: "You can have a lot of jet fighters, but if they don't have effective weapons and the crews are not effectively trained, then they will be shot down in large numbers." The "Power" website said that so far, there seem to be relatively few Ukrainian pilots who have received F-16 training. The US "Washington Post" revealed that only six Ukrainian pilots have completed a full set of training to fly the F-16. Ustinova said that by the end of 2024, Ukraine is expected to have at least 20 pilots who can fly the F-16.

But the U.S. website Forbes said that Ukrainian pilots only began training to fly U.S.-made fighter jets at the end of last year - a "crash course" because Western pilots usually spend three years or more learning to fly such advanced fighter jets. Sources interviewed by Bloomberg News said it is unclear whether the Ukrainian Air Force will be able to use the F-16 for combat "immediately" or whether further training is needed in Ukraine. But what is certain is that "before starting combat missions, the Ukrainian Air Force needs to conduct a certain degree of familiarization flight training locally."

Further reading

During Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba's visit to China, Zelensky said he could negotiate with Putin

At the invitation of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba will visit China from today (July 23) to 26.

At the same time, news came out that Ukrainian President Zelensky said that negotiations with Russian President Putin were possible, although current Ukrainian law prohibits doing so.

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Kuleba visits China this week (data map)

Kuleba’s visit to China is worth watching.

Although Ukrainian leaders have said some words about China at occasions such as the Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore this year, Ukraine recognizes China's position, role, and importance at the time of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It is for this reason that when Li Hui, the Chinese government's special representative for Eurasian affairs, visited Ukraine twice to conduct shuttle diplomacy, Ukraine held candid and friendly talks with China on Sino-Ukrainian relations and the Ukrainian crisis.

The reason why Ukrainian President Zelensky traveled to Singapore to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue and then went to some countries when the war on the front was tense was largely to attract leaders of some countries to Switzerland to attend the Ukrainian Peace Summit.

Of course, China did not attend this summit due to various considerations of its own.

Looking back now, was it a wise choice for China not to attend the first Ukrainian Peace Summit? I believe that even if Zelensky calms down, he should have a clear and correct judgment.

Anyway, the summit was not attended by Russia, the other party in the conflict, and not all participating parties had their leaders present. Some countries did not sign the summit statement. It can be seen from all these that it was not a successful summit.

Zelensky recently released a "peace talks signal" (data map)

Now, President Zelensky has said that Ukraine does not object to the presence of Russian representatives at the second Ukrainian Peace Summit. Reference News quoted AFP as saying that "Compared with the first Ukrainian Peace Summit held in June this year, which excluded Russia, Zelensky's attitude and tone have changed significantly."

In this case, does Ukraine hope that China will also attend the Second Ukrainian Peace Summit? I think the answer is yes.

However, Switzerland has already stated that it does not want to host the second summit.

So, when and where will the second Ukraine Peace Summit be held?

Will Kuleba discuss anything with the Chinese side during his visit to China?

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Just as China announced Kuleba's upcoming visit to China, according to the Global Times, Zelensky said in an interview with the BBC when asked whether he would accept negotiations with Putin:

"If the plan is fully ready and if Russia is willing to discuss it, then we will be willing to negotiate with Russian representatives together with our partners. What difference does it make whether it is Putin or not?"

This was interpreted as Zelensky agreeing to negotiate with Putin.

But the problem is that after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, at the promotion of Zelensky himself, the Ukrainian Rada (Parliament) passed a law prohibiting Ukraine from negotiating with Putin as an opponent.

In other words—

Russian-Ukrainian negotiations are not prohibited by Ukrainian law;

But negotiating with Putin violates current Ukrainian law!

so what should I do now?

Does Ukraine have to amend the law first to remove the "no negotiations with Putin" clause?

Obviously, Zelensky was a little impatient. He couldn't wait to tell the BBC that whether it was illegal or not, why couldn't he negotiate with Putin.

Doesn't this mean that as long as Russia agrees to negotiate, even if Ukraine has not completed the legal amendment procedures, it can still negotiate with Russia, or even directly with President Putin himself.

Zakharova previously responded to Zelensky's remarks (file photo)

But Russia did not seem to respond to Zelensky's comments. Even when Zelensky said he did not oppose Russia's participation in the second Ukrainian Peace Summit, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said:

"It is certainly not for Zelensky to decide who should do what. And, more so, to instruct Russia. He should not even think that."

To put it more simply, it seems that Zakharova's statement could simply be -

Who is Zelensky?

Zakharova said this because Russian President Vladimir Putin recently stated that Zelensky's term has expired, but Ukraine has not held a general election, so Zelensky is no longer the legitimate president of Ukraine.

In other words, not to mention that Ukraine has laws prohibiting negotiations with Putin, the Russian side currently believes that negotiations with Zelensky are illegal and invalid!

Zakharova said that at a recent press conference at the UN headquarters, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov expressed his views on the second Ukrainian peace summit. Lavrov said that the proposal to hold a second Ukrainian peace summit involves some positions that are unacceptable to Russia.

In other words, Russia currently does not want to negotiate with Ukraine.

Lavrov speaks at the United Nations

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I always feel that Ukraine's sudden softening of its attitude toward Russia may be related to changes in the US election situation. Even when Zelensky accepted an interview with the BBC and said that he could negotiate with Putin, US President Biden had not yet announced his withdrawal from the 2024 US presidential election, but it was already seen that Biden was in a state of difficulty.

How will the US political situation develop after Biden announced his withdrawal from the election?

If, as Biden pushes, the current Vice President Harris takes over the baton, represents the Democratic Party in the general election, and defeats Trump in one fell swoop, perhaps the aid to Ukraine signed by Biden can be implemented. And once Trump comes to power, how will he deal with the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Trump recently spoke with Zelensky on the phone, during which he told Zelensky that he would end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours after taking office.

On July 18, former US President Trump (front row, second from left) and Republican Vice Presidential candidate Vance (front row, second from right) greeted the audience at the Republican National Convention. Image: Xinhua News Agency

As for how Trump can convince Putin, including getting Ukraine to cease fire, outsiders really don't know at this point, although everyone knows that he has a good personal relationship with Putin.

Anyway, changes in the situation in the United States will inevitably lead to changes in the situation between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba will certainly seek China's opinion during his visit to China. China's position and views on the Russia-Ukraine conflict have actually affected both Russia and Ukraine as well as the world. However, it remains to be seen when the peace opportunity that China welcomes will come.

Kuleba's visit to China is not a bad thing. Perhaps, this is a journey that breeds peace. I wish him success!