news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

Whether Hamas leader Haniyeh died in an airstrike or from a pre-set bomb, it exposes Iran's security loopholes and is a humiliation to the Iranian government, especially its intelligence system.

According to a report by Cankao Xiaoxi on August 2, citing US media, two sources confirmed that the Israeli Intelligence and Secret Service (Mossad) assassinated Hamas leader Haniyeh, and Mossad placed an explosive device in the bedroom of his residence in Tehran.

Hamas said in an initial statement that Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli air strike.

Professor Liu Zhongmin from the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University analyzed to The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that the assassination of Haniyeh is one of the extreme manifestations of the spillover of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The location and time of the assassination are to some extent a humiliation for Iran. Iran is likely to launch missile strikes on Israel again. The relationship between Iran and Israel will further deteriorate and develop into a "revenge cycle."

US media reveals latest details of Haniya attack

The New York Times quoted seven Middle Eastern officials as saying that Hamas leader Haniyeh was killed by an explosive device that was smuggled into the Tehran hotel where he was staying about two months ago. The assassination was confirmed to be in the hotel and then the bomb was remotely detonated.

Middle Eastern officials said Haniyeh had stayed at the hotel, which is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, several times during his visits to Tehran.

"Cankaoxiaoxi.com" quoted the American Axios news website as reporting that the explosion that killed Haniyeh occurred on the night of July 30, and the official announcement of his assassination came a few hours later on the morning of July 31.

It is said that there was a medical team in the hotel. After the explosion, the medical team rushed to the room immediately, pronounced Haniyeh dead on the spot, and tried to rescue the bodyguard, but the bodyguard also died.

Sources said Israeli intelligence knew where Haniyeh was staying during his stay in Tehran and even which room it was. The bomb was planted in the room beforehand, the sources said. They also said it was a high-tech device that used artificial intelligence. The bomb was detonated remotely by Mossad agents in Iran who had received intelligence in advance that Haniyeh was indeed in the room.

The precision and sophistication of the attack were similar to the method Israel used to assassinate Iran's top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020, which used a remote-controlled artificial intelligence robotic weapon.

Iranian media initially reported that a drone launched three missiles, then said the missiles were launched from outside Iran. The Israeli media "i24NEWS" website reported that the attack took place at around 2 a.m. that day, and an Israeli-made "Spike" anti-tank missile was launched from near Haniya's residence and hit his bedroom.

According to relevant information, the Spike missile is also a product of Israel's Rafael Company. It has been developed since the 1990s and has developed six generations so far. It has been exported to 18 countries and is a well-known anti-tank missile. There are five models of Spike missiles, including short-range, medium-range, long-range, extended-range and new non-line-of-sight types, with a maximum range ranging from 800 meters to 25 kilometers.

"The possibility of using the Spike missile is not high. It is difficult and risky to bring an Israeli-developed missile into Iran," said military expert Han Dong. "It would be better to modify a drone, which is available on the market. After modification, it can be equipped with explosives and its accuracy is comparable to that of the Spike missile. This drone has been widely used in the Russia-Ukraine conflict."

According to the New York Times, after the attack on Haniyeh, a photo of a damaged building circulated on social platforms, claiming to be the place where Haniyeh was killed. An anonymous Iranian official confirmed to the media that this was the place where Haniyeh was attacked. The New York Times matched the photo with satellite images and confirmed that the building was near the Saade Abad Palace in northern Tehran. Many of Iran's foreign affairs activities are held in the Saade Abad Palace.

Judging from the photos, part of the building was covered with green tarpaulin, the windows and exterior walls were damaged, and building debris was scattered downstairs.

It was reported that Ziad al-Nakhala, secretary-general of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Jihad), was in the same building as Haniyeh at the time of the incident, but Nakhala was not injured and the attack seemed to have precisely targeted Haniyeh, who was on another floor.

According to Iranian media reports, one of Haniyeh's bodyguards leaked key information that led to his attack.

But there are also reports that Israel used spyware on mobile phones to locate Haniyeh. On August 1, Russia Today TV reported that journalist Elijah Mani said Israel used WhatsApp messages to implant spyware on the mobile phone of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh to locate the latter. Mani said that this spyware may be similar to the "notorious 'Pegasus' software developed by Israeli cyber intelligence company NSO Group." This software can monitor targets in real time and provide accurate target positioning. Haniyeh spoke to his son on the phone beforehand.

Andrew Fox, a researcher at the Henry Jackson Society, a British think tank, believes that Haniyeh has visited Iran many times and the media often publishes reports on his whereabouts, so it is easy for Israel to track him. "It is reasonable to use one day (to determine Haniyeh's location)."

Regarding the specific details of Haniyeh's attack, the Iranian government said that the investigation is still ongoing to determine the exact circumstances of the assassination. The Iranian government has not yet responded or commented on the details of the attack reported by the media.

How will Iran retaliate?

Whether it is a missile attack or a pre-placed bomb, it not only shows that Israeli intelligence agencies have penetrated deep into Iranian territory, but also reflects the loopholes in Iran's intelligence and security departments.

The New York Times analyzed that Haniyeh’s death in Iran was not only a humiliation to the Iranian government, but also exposed Iran’s security loopholes.

Beimanesh, a close confidant of Iran's new President Pezer Hziyan, said the attack was a heavy slap in the face of Iran. "It humiliated our country, undermined our entire security apparatus, and showed that we have serious loopholes in intelligence."

A senior US official pointed out that Israel chose to launch the operation during the inauguration of the new Iranian president in order to demonstrate to the new leadership its ability to penetrate Iran's security system. How Iran responds will determine whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate further.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed on July 31 that Iran had a duty to "avenge" Haniyeh's death. According to three anonymous Iranian officials, Khamenei has ordered a direct strike against Israel, but it is unclear whether Iran will adjust its means of retaliation again to avoid escalating the situation.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement on the 31st saying that Iran and the resistance forces will make a "severe and large-scale response" to this matter.

Iran's new President Pesakhiasyan said that Iran will "defend its sovereignty, dignity, honor and pride, and make the terrorist occupiers regret their cowardly act."

According to the anonymous Iranian official, Iranian military commanders are considering launching a joint drone and missile attack on military targets near Tel Aviv and Haifa, but will be careful to avoid attacking civilian targets. Another option is for Iran and its proxies (including Yemen, Syria, and Iraq) to launch a coordinated attack to achieve maximum pressure.

In April this year, in response to the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel from its territory for the first time. Due to the early interception of the missiles and drones by the United States, Britain and Jordan, and the defense of Israel's own air defense and anti-missile forces, only a small number of missiles hit Israeli military bases. Afterwards, Iran said that the military operation successfully hit two Israeli military targets, while Israel said that the damage caused by the attack was very small.

In Liu Zhongmin's view, even if Iran launches missile and drone air strikes against Israel again, the scale of the action will be self-restrained, the targets will be focused on military targets, and the number of targets selected will be relatively limited, so as not to allow the situation to evolve into an uncontrollable state, such as a large-scale military conflict or war.

"It is also Iran's option for other members of the resistance axis to launch a military strike against Israel, and we should pay special attention to the direction of the recent conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah," said Liu Zhongmin.

Mohammad Hussein Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, said that the "resistance axis" is evaluating ways to bring justice to Haniyeh and they will take action, and Israel will regret it. The "resistance axis" mainly includes Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi armed forces in Yemen, and some militias in Iraq and Syria.

Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed on August 1 to avenge the killing of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukur by Israel and to launch an immediate retaliatory attack on Israel. Nasrallah said that Hezbollah is "on the eve of a major war" and that the murder of the resistance leader will not affect the size of the organization. "Experience shows that the resistance movement will only continue to grow and develop."

A senior Houthi official told Russia's Sputnik News Agency on July 31 that the Houthi group has promised to take the lead in responding to the killing of Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) leader Haniyeh in Iran.

Liu Zhongmin pointed out that this assassination has brought negative impacts on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Iran-Israel relations, Palestinian internal reconciliation and even the entire situation in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel and Iran and the "Resistance Axis" is likely to be protracted, and the parties to the conflict will still find it difficult to break free from the vicious circle of "violence responding to violence."

Some analysts also said that the riskiest option for Iran is to decide to take the final step toward building real nuclear weapons, which would further complicate the deadlocked Iranian nuclear issue.