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[Text/Observer Network Liu Chenghui] "Marcos and Duterte's painful breakup will usher in major changes in Philippine politics." Hong Kong's English media "South China Morning Post" published an article with this title on August 1, describing that since Vice President Sara Duterte missed President Marcos' State of the Nation Address, the attacks between the two major Philippine families have become increasingly fierce, which can be said to have "put the last nail in the coffin" of cooperation between the two sides.

Sara left the Marcos cabinet in June this year, resigning as education minister and vice chairman of the anti-insurgency task force. After that, Sara, who had attended Marcos' State of the Nation Address twice, refused to appear in Marcos' third speech in late July.

Observers say Sara's absence is proof that the so-called "Unity Alliance" (UniTeam) she formed with Marcos during the 2022 general election has completely broken down.

"The Solidarity Alliance is definitely gone," Maria Ela Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, told the South China Morning Post's "This Week in Asia" that Marcos and Sara "can no longer sell the message that everything is the same as before."

“The State of the Nation address clearly showed that Duterte and his staunch supporters have left the coalition. But this is not surprising considering that many coalitions in Philippine politics are not long-lasting,” said Jan Robert Go, associate professor of political science at the University of the Philippines Diliman.

The article believes that the complete collapse of the Marcos-Duterte alliance will have a significant impact on the future of the Philippines, as the two major families are now trying to strengthen their political alliances before the 2025 mid-term elections, and they have launched attacks on their opponents for this purpose.

Analysts described what has happened since the third State of the Union address as showing that both sides are getting serious.

Shortly before Marcos addressed the nation, a group of Duterte supporters released a video at a rally in the United States accusing Marcos of "taking drugs," but Philippine officials called the video a "malicious" deepfake aimed at destabilizing the government.

Although there is no indication yet that the video is linked to the Duterte family, analysts say it is part of "Duterte's playbook for attacking critics."

Atienza said that during Duterte's term, they had "spread fake videos, fake photos, fake news and fake stories" to attack critics. Wu Anping noted that the content of the video was consistent with Duterte's statement. When the video went viral online, Duterte's supporters flocked to celebrate Marcos' "almost downfall."

On the other hand, after the State of the Nation Address, the Philippine National Police (PNP) withdrew 75 police officers responsible for Sarah's security. PNP Director Rommel Marbil said in a radio interview, "We have not seen any threats against the vice president."

Sarah condemned the move as a "political harassment" and accused Mabir of making false statements that repeatedly misled the public. Sarah said her family was recently photographed at the Manila airport, indicating that they were facing security threats. Sarah also said that the police officers who were withdrawn were personnel she had long "trusted and trusted" and were assigned to her in 2007 and during her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte's presidency.

In addition, the Marcos government has reversed its stance on the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation into Duterte's "drug war". On July 29, Philippine Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra said the government "will not hinder" the ICC's investigation into Duterte. Just a few months ago, Marcos said the Philippines would not assist the ICC investigation.

In Atienza's view, the ICC is "one of the trump cards that the Marcos government has against Duterte." "If the Duterte family does not reduce its attacks, the government can certainly threaten Duterte and his allies by working more closely with the ICC."

With Marcos' recent poll ratings plunging, analysts believe the Marcos administration will have to do more on the South China Sea and offshore gaming issues to win public opinion.

Wu Anping said that Marcos can be said to be cleaning up the "mess" left by the Duterte government. If Marcos can maintain his focus on the above agenda, Duterte may face an unfavorable situation.

After Sara's resignation from the Marcos cabinet, many believed the Duterte family was consolidating its power and supporters for a political comeback in the 2025 elections. Sara said on June 25 that her father Duterte and her two brothers all planned to run for senator in 2025.

A previous article by Bloomberg News in the United States pointed out that since last year, as Marcos' parliamentary allies attacked Sara over confidential funding issues, and Marcos changed the policies of the Duterte administration and continued to strengthen relations with the United States, the rift in the Marcos-Duterte alliance has continued to deepen, which may become the latest flashpoint between the two camps before next year's mid-term elections.

Aries Arugay, a senior visiting fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, commented that the current political scene in the Philippines is "dynasty against dynasty". "The 2025 mid-term elections may be a referendum on which dynasty (Duterte or Marcos) is stronger. This will be a weather vane."

This article is an exclusive article of Observer.com and may not be reproduced without authorization.