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Source: Global Times

[Global Times Comprehensive Report] Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed on July 31 that Ismail Haniyeh, leader of the Political Bureau of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), was assassinated in Tehran in the early hours of the same day. Haniyeh is considered the "number one figure" of Hamas, and the news of his assassination quickly shook the Middle East and the entire world. Hamas said that the assassination was committed by Israel and was a "cowardly act" and Hamas would retaliate. Israel refused to respond. Haniyeh was a key interlocutor in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, and all parties agreed that his assassination would have a huge impact on the regional situation. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei issued a statement saying that Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, and it was Iran's "responsibility" to avenge him, and Iran would impose "severe punishment" on Israel. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed, who has been mediating a ceasefire in Gaza, said that Haniyeh's killing would jeopardize ceasefire negotiations. "How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator of the other party?" Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on the 31st in response to relevant questions that we pay close attention to the relevant incident, firmly oppose and condemn the assassination, and are deeply concerned that this incident may lead to further instability in the regional situation. China has always advocated resolving regional disputes through negotiations and dialogues. Gaza should achieve a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire as soon as possible to avoid further escalation of conflicts and confrontations.

Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in the early morning of July 31. Iran said it was Israel's doing. The picture shows Iranians holding a rally at Tehran University that day, holding the Palestinian flag and Haniyeh's portrait. Source: Visual China

Israel refused to comment, and the United States said it was "unaware and not involved"

According to reports, Haniyeh, 62, lives in Doha, the capital of Qatar. He went to Tehran to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Iranian President Pezhichyan on the afternoon of July 30. The Public Relations Department of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran said that Haniyeh and a bodyguard were killed in an attack in Tehran. Iran said that it is investigating the incident and the results of the investigation will be announced soon. Iran held a three-day mourning period across the country, and Haniyeh's body will be airlifted to Doha for burial.

The media revealed more details. According to a report by the Iranian media, the Arab satellite TV station said that the attack took place at around 2 a.m. on the 31st. Haniyeh was staying in a residence in northern Tehran that was specially provided for veterans by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Haniyeh was directly hit by a "missile launched from a foreign country."

Although Iran and Hamas pointed out that Israel was behind the assassination, Israel refused to comment. The Associated Press said that Israel usually does not respond to assassinations carried out by its intelligence agency Mossad. But the far-right member of the Israeli government and Minister of Heritage Eliyahu posted on the social platform X that Haniyeh's death "makes the world a better place."

Agence France-Presse said that Haniyeh's assassination shocked the international community, and many countries warned that this could turn the Gaza war into a regional conflict. Pezehiziyan said that Iran "will defend its territorial integrity, honor, pride and dignity, and make the terrorist invaders regret their cowardly behavior." The British "Guardian" analyzed that the time and place of Haniyeh's murder meant that this could escalate into a regional war, and "Iran cannot protect one of its most important allies on its own territory, so it needs to save face."

Pezeshitsyan responds to Haniyeh's assassination

Agence France-Presse said that analysts believe that the incident exposed "the depth of Israel's infiltration into Iran's security sector" and "this is a major mistake by Iran's intelligence services, especially against the backdrop of foreign dignitaries attending the presidential inauguration ceremony." On the evening of the 31st, Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations posted on social media that "the response to the assassination is a more severe special operation aimed at making the perpetrators feel remorse."

According to Agence France-Presse, Palestinian President Abbas of the Fatah faction is Haniyeh's rival, but he said on the 31st that the assassination of Haniyeh was "cowardly and a serious escalation". The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has been mediating a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, said that the assassination was "a heinous act and a shameful crime" and that "the assassination and Israel's continued reckless actions against Gaza civilians will lead to chaos in the region and undermine the chance of peace". The report also said that Haniyeh's assassination also united his regional allies, including Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi armed forces, whose confrontation with Israel has intensified. The Qassam Brigades, the armed faction of Hamas, said that Haniyeh's death pushed its war with Israel to a "new height" and that it would "have huge consequences for the entire region."

The US attitude is intriguing. The White House initially refused to comment. When US Secretary of Defense Austin was asked whether the United States was informed in advance of the assassination of Haniyeh, he said "no comment". But Austin said that a larger war in the Middle East is "not inevitable" and that regional tensions are increasing. "If Israel is attacked, we will definitely defend Israel." Later, US Secretary of State Blinken said in an interview that the United States "did not know about and was not involved" in the assassination of Haniyeh. He refused to predict the development of the regional situation, saying that after Haniyeh was killed, reaching a ceasefire in the Gaza War "is a top priority." Germany called on all parties to exercise restraint to prevent the situation from developing into a regional conflict, and that "the logic of tit-for-tat retaliation is the wrong path."

Screenshot of video of US Secretary of Defense Austin saying he has no comment

"The prospects for a ceasefire are slimmer than ever"

Agence France-Presse said that for Palestinians in Gaza, Haniyeh's killing was a "bolt from the blue". Palestinian factions held a general strike and marched in the West Bank on the 31st to protest Haniyeh's killing. Israeli people are worried about the fate of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Anat Noy, who lives in Haifa, said that Haniyeh's death "was a mistake because it threatened the possibility of a hostage release agreement."

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Bogdanov said on the 31st that Moscow believes that Haniyeh’s death is an absolutely unacceptable political murder, which may lead to further escalation of the situation in the region.

"The prospects for a ceasefire are slimmer than ever," Qatar's Al Jazeera said. Haniyeh was a pragmatic politician known for maintaining positive relations with leaders of various Palestinian factions. After his assassination, Hamas hardliners are now more able to dictate the agenda, and it is hard to imagine any progress in ceasefire negotiations at this time. The Guardian said that it is generally believed that Haniyeh is more pragmatic and more willing to negotiate with Israel than Hamas' military leaders. "The assassination of Haniyeh is ostensibly a huge morale boost for Israel and a boon to the unpopular (Israeli Prime Minister) Netanyahu, but it could become a factor that escalates the conflict."

The day before Haniyeh was assassinated, Israel announced that it had attacked Hezbollah positions in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital Beirut, killing Hezbollah commander Shukur. Hezbollah said on the 31st that Shukur was in the building that was attacked, but his fate was unknown. The Associated Press said that diplomats trying to ease tensions in the Middle East were shocked by the development of the situation. A Western diplomat said that Israel's dual attacks on Beirut and Tehran "almost killed" hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza and could push the Middle East into a "devastating regional war."

Reuters said that when Haniyeh was assassinated, Israel's offensive on the Gaza Strip was approaching its 10th month, but there was no sign of the war ending and it could escalate into a wider regional conflict. The ceasefire negotiations in Gaza brokered by Egypt and Qatar seemed to have failed, and the new incident "seemed to have made any upcoming ceasefire agreement come to naught."

“Will not be affected by the assassination of the leader”

According to CNN, Haniyeh is the second senior Hamas leader to be killed since the outbreak of the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In January this year, Hamas's "number two", deputy chairman of the Political Bureau and one of the founders of the Qassam Brigades, Aluri, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut. The report said that because Hamas is a large and opaque organization, it is difficult to predict the impact of the death of its leadership members. Hamas has previously experienced similar situations, with its founder Yassin and co-founder Rantisi being killed in 2004. Commentators believe that Haniyeh's killing is not expected to have a significant impact on Hamas' military operations, but Haniyeh's death has deprived Hamas of its public political leader, which may cause a major setback to its international operations.

Aluri was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut

On the 31st, several Chinese experts on the Middle East were interviewed by the Global Times and shared their views. Wang Jin, director of the Israel Research Center at Northwestern University, believes that although Hamas, which is in a state of war, faces greater difficulties in electing a new leader, historically, many Hamas leaders have died in assassinations, but the leadership changes have generally been relatively smooth.

Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies of Shanghai International Studies University, said that the killing of Haniyeh was "adding insult to injury" to Hamas' current situation. With its military force suffering heavy losses, the leader was attacked and killed. How to rebuild its organizational system is a huge challenge for Hamas. Wen Shaobiao, an assistant researcher at the Institute of Middle East Studies of Shanghai International Studies University, said that the internal power system of Hamas is relatively strict. Haniyeh and other leaders mainly command remotely in Qatar and other places, while the backbone commanders command operations on the front line in the Gaza Strip.

According to Reuters, senior Hamas official Zuhri said on the 31st that Hamas is "strong enough" and will not be affected by the assassination of its leader. "We are launching an open war to liberate Jerusalem and are ready to pay any price for it."

[Global Times special correspondent in Egypt Huang Peizhao, Global Times reporters Bai Yunyi, Zhao Jueyun, Wang Yi, Liu Yupeng]