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Less worries about stock trading

Resource stocks on the rise again?

On July 31, local time, the Federal Reserve ended its two-day interest rate meeting and announced that it would maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said,The committee's consensus is inching closer to a rate cut, with a September rate cut "likely under consideration."

According to CME FedWatch data, the market has begun pricing in a 50BP rate cut in September, although the probability is only 10.3%, and the probability of a 25BP rate cut is 89.6%.That means at least a 25BP rate cut in SeptemberAs of the meeting in December this year, the probability of a rate cut of at least 50BP is 99.9%, and the probability of a rate cut of at least 75BP is 68.4%. In other words, there will be at least one rate cut in the November and December meetings, and there is a possibility of two rate cuts, but the probability is less than 70% (it is usually predicted that the probability of a rate cut of more than 90% will eventually be implemented).

Under the influence of the above good news, the commodity market rebounded sharply. On the same day, the gold for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange exceeded $2,496 per ounce, surpassing the record of $2,488 per ounce set two weeks ago. Industrial metal prices also rose across the board, with tin rising more than 4%, aluminum and nickel rising by about 3% each, and copper, which has attracted widespread attention, rising by nearly 2.5%, the largest increase in nearly four weeks.

Institutions are optimistic about the allocation value of resource stocks

Huafu Securities said that the market's expectations for rate cuts have further increased, and in the short term, loose trading may not end; the overall US economy is still in a marginal slowdown trend, and financial conditions have continued to loosen since June. The boost to the US economy may not be reflected until the data from August to September. This means that loose trading is expected to continue in August, and US stocks and bonds will generally benefit from the loose liquidity drive. Against the backdrop of expectations of rate cuts in the global equity market and a weakening US dollar, there are good investment opportunities.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will help the rebound in commodity prices, while the recent pullback in resource stocks is mainly due to market concerns about an overseas economic recession, which has hit non-ferrous metal prices and led to a pullback in stock prices.

China Merchants Securities believes that the main logic of the Fed's interest rate cut, the general supply of non-ferrous resources is limited, and the new consumption is strong has not been broken. Gold may still be a good investment before the Fed cuts interest rates. Copper and aluminum have fallen significantly recently, and it is expected that this round of decline is basically completed. The valuation of non-ferrous stocks has returned to the starting point at the beginning of the year. From the perspective of medium and long-term investment, both commodities and valuations are relatively low now.

Resource stocks fell sharply

Resource stocks have generally fallen recently. From the perspective of industry indexes, the coal index fell by nearly 11% in July, the petroleum and petrochemical index fell by nearly 6%, and the non-ferrous metals index fell by nearly 4%.Yuean New Materials, ST Dinglong, Huayang SharesNearly 40 stocks fell by more than 10% in July.

After this round of correction, resource stocks have returned to a low valuation. Data shows that the current rolling P/E ratio of the coal index is less than 11 times, below 30% of the historical percentile; the P/E ratio of the petroleum and petrochemical index is less than 15 times, below 20% of the historical percentile; the P/E ratio of the non-ferrous metal index is less than 20 times, below 15% of the historical percentile.

Northbound funds increase holdings of these high-quality stocks

Some high-quality resource stocks have received increased holdings from northbound funds. According to statistics from Securities Times Databao, among the three major resource sectors, 25 stocks rated by five or more institutions received increased holdings from northbound funds of more than 10 million yuan in July.Zijin MiningThe net increase in holdings was nearly 1.6 billion yuan, ranking first.China National Gold Group, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Chifeng Gold Group, PetroChinaThe net increase in holdings of 12 stocks exceeded 100 million yuan.

In terms of growth,Shengxin Lithium EnergyInstitutions are optimistic about future growth, and unanimously predict that the net profit growth rate will reach 33.58%, 34.06% and 23.62% this year, next year and 2026 respectively. Haitong International said,Shengxin Lithium EnergyIt is a leading lithium salt smelting company in the world. With the advancement of the construction of the Sichuan lithium mine project in Zimbabwe, the company's production capacity in lithium resources is expanding rapidly.

also,Zijin Mining, Chifeng Gold, Hengli Petrochemical, CNOOC Oilfield Services, Jinli Permanent MagnetIndividual stock institutions unanimously predict that the net profit growth rate in the past three years will exceed 15%.

Statement: All information content of Databao does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky and investment should be cautious.

Editor: He Yu

Proofreading: Li Lingfeng

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