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Harris will announce her running mate as early as next Monday

2024-07-31

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【Text/Lin Zhaonan, Observer Network】

According to Reuters on the 30th local time, the campaign team of US Vice President Harris said that Harris will hold her first rally with her running mate candidate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania next Tuesday (6th), launching a four-day "swing state" tour, including Michigan and Arizona.

Later that evening, the campaign said in a statement that after Philadelphia, Harris and her running mates will travel to six other locations, including western Wisconsin, Detroit and Las Vegas, and "strongly reminded" Harris that she "has not yet decided on a running mate."

Sources told Reuters that Harris is expected to announce her decision as early as next Monday (5th).

At the same time, in the latest poll on "swing states" released on the 30th, she led Trump by 1% overall in seven "swing states", including leading in four states and tying in one state, and leading Trump by 11% in Michigan, where she has the largest advantage.

Ever since Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and endorsed Harris in mid-July, speculation has been growing about who might be his running mate.

Harris is expected to begin formally interviewing candidates this week, a person familiar with the matter told CNN.

Former Attorney General Eric Holder is leading a team of dozens of Democratic lawyers who are poring over the financial records and family histories of the contenders. Tony West, a former deputy attorney general and Harris’s brother-in-law, is also playing a leading advisory role in the process.

According to CNN, the top contenders include Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear are also still under consideration, but people familiar with the matter believe they are unlikely.

According to the Associated Press (AP), citing sources, Shapiro and Kelly are among the leaders, while Harris' focus is still on the impact of different candidates on the election results.

Shapiro is one of the most popular governors in the United States. His home state of Pennsylvania is a well-known "swing state". Campaign strategists admitted to CNN that the state's 19 electoral votes may determine the outcome of the election.

If elected, Harris may reduce support for Israel, and Shapiro's Jewish identity will help neutralize this.

Kelly is the only congressman among the candidates, which means he has the corresponding experience and reputation. Before becoming a congressman, he had accumulated a high reputation as a naval pilot and NASA astronaut. He has strong Latino support in the local area. Arizona, where he governs, is a border state, so he is also familiar with border issues, giving him a high voice in immigration issues.

Meanwhile, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of registered voters released on the 30th (surveyed from the 24th to the 28th) showed that Harris defeated Trump in six of the seven "swing states." Harris's biggest advantage was in Michigan, where she led by 11 percentage points. In Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, she led Trump by 2 percentage points.

Trump leads Harris by 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 2 percentage points in North Carolina. The two are tied in Georgia.

In the same poll in early July, before Biden dropped out of the race, Trump was leading Biden by 2 percentage points overall and in five of the seven "swing states."

The overall poll updated by Morning Consult on July 29 also showed that Harris continued to lead, leading Trump by one percentage point with 47% to 46%.

At the same time, a poll conducted by Harvard University's Center for American Political Studies (Harvard CAPS) and market research consulting firm The Harris Poll from July 26 to 28 showed that Trump led Harris by three percentage points with 48% support.

Although Trump still maintains the lead, the gap is narrowing. The project's June poll showed that Trump was leading Biden by 7%.

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