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According to the website of Iran's national television, on July 31 local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a statement confirming that Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Hamas Political Bureau and the "number one figure" of the organization, was killed in an attack in Tehran, the capital of Iran.

The statement said that the attack took place in the early morning of the 31st local time, killing Haniyeh and a bodyguard, and Iran is investigating the specific circumstances. Earlier, Hamas issued a statement saying that it was Israel that attacked Haniyeh's residence in Tehran. Hamas also said that the attack took place after Haniyeh attended the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian President Pezerhiziyan. Hamas Political Bureau Deputy Chairman Marzouk said that the attack was a "cowardly act" and Hamas would not fail to respond.

According to CNN, the Israeli military refused to comment on the incident. As of noon Beijing time on the 31st, only the country's Minister of Cultural Heritage, Eliyehu, responded indirectly on social media: the world without Haniyeh is "better."

Screenshot of Iranian state television's report on the attack in Haniya

Hamas's "number one and number two figures" died one after another

Iran's state television reported that an insider said Haniyeh was "directly hit by a missile." He and the Hamas delegation accompanying him to the inauguration of Iran's new president were staying at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Hotel in northern Tehran. Islamic Jihad leader Nakalai and his entourage lived on another floor of the building. At around 2 a.m., an explosive hit Haniyeh's floor.

This attack is similar to the attack on Hamas's second-in-command, Deputy Chairman of the Political Bureau Saleh Aluri on January 2 this year. At that time, Hamas' office in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, was attacked by a drone and Aluri was killed in the bombing.

Last November, after the ground military operation began in the Gaza Strip, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated that he had instructed Israel's overseas intelligence agency Mossad to "assassinate all Hamas leaders wherever they are." Before Haniyeh was attacked, Aluri was the "greatest achievement" of Israel's current round of assassinations.

In addition, in April this year, Israeli air strikes also killed three of Haniyeh's sons and four grandchildren. Haniyeh said at the time that the deaths of his children would not affect his firm position in the ceasefire negotiations.

Haniyeh joined the Islamic Student Union, the predecessor of Hamas, in 1983 and was promoted as a close assistant to Yassin, the main founder of Hamas. In 2006, Haniyeh became the Prime Minister of the Palestinian National Unity Government. The following year, after Hamas took control of Gaza, Haniyeh was dismissed by Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas. Since May 2017, Haniyeh has served as the chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau. Since December 2019, he has been in exile abroad, living in Turkey and Qatar for a long time. His main job is to raise funds for Hamas and do political propaganda.

After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 last year, Haniyeh said in a televised speech that the organization was about to achieve a "great victory." On the same day, Hamas's television station also broadcast footage of Haniyeh and other senior officials watching the attack on Israel in their office in Doha.

On July 30, the day before the assassination, Haniyeh had just attended Pezeshiziyan's inauguration ceremony in Tehran and shared the latest situation in the Gaza Strip during a meeting with Pezeshiziyan.

Analysis points out that Haniyeh's status within Hamas cannot be compared with that of the late leader Yassin, but it remains to be seen whether the successive deaths of Aluri and Haniyeh will trigger an internal power struggle within the Hamas leadership and thus affect the construction of the governance framework of the post-war Gaza Strip.

On July 30, 2024, local time, Haniyeh attended the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian President Pezhashyan in Tehran. When Pezhashyan was speaking, Haniyeh applauded in the audience. Photo/Visual China

Breaking the Israel-Iran red line again?

On the other hand, Israel's "decapitation operation" in the Iranian capital will obviously increase tensions in the Middle East. In April this year, after Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria, killing several senior generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran launched a symbolic drone attack on Israel, but both sides showed restraint in escalating the situation and ultimately did not lead to a full-scale war.

However, the incident was not without consequences. Before the inauguration of the new Iranian president, Jafar Hagopana, a senior researcher at the Tehran Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS), told China Newsweek that after the mutual attacks in April this year, "the old 'red line' between Iran and Israel has been crossed, and the new 'red line' has not yet been established. Any unexpected incident or intervention by external forces may lead to war."

Not attacking Hamas leaders in Iran seems to be one of the "red lines" between Israel and Iran in the past. Hamas leaders and representatives have been operating openly in Tehran, and Israeli agents' previous attacks in Iran mainly targeted Iranian nuclear facilities and nuclear scientists. In addition, earlier this year, Iranian Information Minister Ismail Khatib said that Mossad's intelligence network in Iran had been destroyed, which he called a "turning point."

Hagopaner, who provides policy advice to the new president Pezeshkian, said that after the red line between Iran and Israel "disappeared", Pezeshkian, a reformist with an active diplomatic stance, was ready to take measures to ease tensions with relevant parties and avoid extreme situations. However, in the early morning of the day after Pezeshkian officially took office, Haniyeh was attacked and killed in Tehran. How to deal with this crisis will be the first major test for Pezeshkian, who has little experience in governing.

It is worth noting that Netanyahu's vow to hunt down Hamas leaders around the world has also sparked debate among Israeli intelligence officials. Former Mossad director Halevy believes that "hunting down Hamas around the world and trying to systematically eliminate all its leaders from the world is a desire for revenge rather than a desire to achieve strategic goals."

Halevi pointed out that killing Hamas leaders will not eliminate the threat, but may anger the organization's followers and accelerate the creation of more serious threats. At the end of the last century, after Israeli Prime Minister Meir launched the "Wrath of God" operation, the number of Palestinians joining the anti-Israel armed forces increased significantly.

In 1997, shortly after Netanyahu first became the Israeli Prime Minister, he ordered Mossad to assassinate Hamas founder Meshaal, who lived in Jordan. The assassin was arrested on the spot, and Jordan threatened to terminate the peace treaty with Israel. Under pressure from then-US President Clinton, Israel released more than 70 Palestinian prisoners, including Hamas spiritual leader Yassin, in exchange for the freedom of the Israeli agent. This failed assassination attempt became a "turning point" in the history of Hamas' development, and it strengthened the organization's power.

However, in the new era of "long-range warfare", Israel's attacks using long-range weapons have left the parties with greater buffer space.