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Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon appear to be escalating. On the evening of July 30, local time, Israel launched an airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, killing at least one woman and two children and injuring dozens of people.

In addition to the civilian casualties, the Israeli army claimed to have killed a Lebanese Hezbollah commander who was held responsible for the attack on the Israeli-occupied town of Majdar Shams in the Golan Heights. Hezbollah denied any involvement in the Golan Heights attack and did not immediately confirm the commander's death.

Since the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah have attacked each other almost every day in the past 10 months. However, they have kept the conflict at a low level before. Since the attack on the Golan Heights, the outside world is worried that the conflict between Israel and Lebanon will escalate into a regional war.

Lebanon Hezbollah commander's fate unknown

On the evening of July 30, local time, Hassan Noureddine was riding a motorcycle near the southern suburbs of Beirut when he suddenly heard a loud explosion, "which looked like an attack by a drone."

Noordin's judgment was correct. According to the Lebanese National News Agency, an Israeli drone launched three missiles that day and carried out an air strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut.

The specific location of the airstrike was Haret al-Herlike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, a crowded urban community where Hezbollah has some political and security activities, but there are also many small shops and apartment buildings.

Several apartment buildings were severely damaged in the airstrike, and some buildings partially collapsed. According to CNN, according to surveillance footage from a clothing store opposite the attacked building, the airstrike triggered at least two explosions, accompanied by whistling sounds and flashes of light, followed by huge explosions and the sound of broken glass.

The Lebanese health department said that the airstrike has killed at least one woman and two children and injured 74 people. It is worth noting that Israel claimed that the Israeli army launched a targeted elimination operation against targets in Beirut, killing a Lebanese Hezbollah commander. The airstrike was in retaliation for the attack on the Israeli-occupied town of Majdar Shams in the Golan Heights, and the commander was responsible for the incident.

The commander is Fuad Shukur (also known as Haj Mohsen), the military commander and head of strategic forces of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a senior military adviser to Hezbollah leader Nasrallah.

Sources in Hezbollah said Shukur had close ties with Imad Mughniyeh, the former military commander and No. 2 figure in Hezbollah. After Mughniyeh was assassinated in the Syrian capital Damascus in 2008, Shukur's role in Hezbollah became more prominent.

The United States believes that Shukur played a key role in the bombing of the U.S. Marine Corps barracks in Beirut on October 23, 1983, which killed 241 American military personnel. The United States also offered a reward of $5 million for Shukur's capture.

Although Israel claimed that Shukur had been killed in the airstrike, Hezbollah officials in Lebanon did not make any statement about Shukur or his condition. Shortly after the attack, Hezbollah sources in Lebanon said that Shukur survived the airstrike.

According to CBS, shortly after the airstrike, Nasrallah wrote on social media that the "assassination attempt" had not succeeded and that an official statement would be issued in response after considering all the facts.

"Hezbollah in Lebanon is caught in a dilemma"

In fact, after the Golan Heights attack, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to retaliate, saying that Hezbollah in Lebanon would "pay a heavy price" for this, and the outside world also expected Israel to take action in the next few days.

However, what surprised the diplomats was that Israel directly launched an airstrike on Beirut. The last time Israel launched an airstrike on Beirut was in January this year, when an Israeli drone attacked the office of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the southern suburbs of Beirut, killing six people including Saleh Aluri, deputy chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Habib said that Israel's allies had assured that Israel's response would be limited and would not trigger a war. "We were shocked by the attack in the capital, not the attack itself." According to the Associated Press, it was generally believed that Israel's response level would remain within a low-conflict range. Many people did not expect Israel to directly attack Beirut, which could trigger Hezbollah in Lebanon to launch an attack on a major population center in Israel.

Israel's choice of airstrike targets may be intended to send a broader message to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The British newspaper The Guardian pointed out that Israel may want to tell Hezbollah in Lebanon that they can strike at the leadership of the organization's headquarters.

The Prime Minister's Office said in a statement that Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Mikati condemned Israel's "aggression" against Beirut, pointing out that Israel's killing of civilians is a clear violation of international law and international humanitarian law. Habib said Lebanon plans to file a complaint with the UN Security Council, hoping that the potential response from Hezbollah will not lead to an escalation of the situation.

After the Israeli airstrike, many countries in the Middle East condemned it. The Syrian Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning "Israel's blatant violation of Lebanese sovereignty and international law." The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Israel and the United States should be held responsible for "the escalation of tensions in the region and the expansion of the crisis."

The United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Janine Hennis-Plasschaert, "expressed concern" over the civilian casualties caused by the Israeli air strikes on Beirut and urged all parties to remain calm and restrained amid escalating tensions.

Two Israeli officials who wished to remain anonymous told Reuters that although Israel retaliated against Hezbollah in Lebanon, it did not want to drag Lebanon into an "all-out war." The IDF subsequently said it would not issue new evacuation instructions to Israeli citizens. The BBC pointed out that this showed that Israel did not expect Hezbollah in Lebanon to make a major immediate response, and both sides were aware of the cost of an "all-out war."

According to the American political news website Politico, in recent days, fearing that the situation would snowball, European leaders and officials have been contacting Middle Eastern officials in an attempt to avoid a larger conflict. It is unclear how much actual influence they have on Israel, Hezbollah and others.

After the Israeli airstrike on Beirut, White House press secretary Jean-Pierre said the United States does not believe that war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is inevitable. "We don't want to see an escalation of the situation, and we don't want to see a full-scale war."

"This is a serious attack and it does put Hezbollah in a real dilemma. The focus is on what they will do next." Michael Hanna, director of the U.S. program at the International Crisis Group, a think tank based in Brussels, Belgium, said that we are now in a potential escalation cycle that could lead to a path that is ultimately uncontrollable, although neither side wants to get involved in an "all-out war."

A Lebanese official told the Associated Press that Lebanon's Hezbollah does not want to launch an "all-out war" against Israel, but if a conflict breaks out, Hezbollah is ready to fight and the group has begun moving smart precision-guided missiles ready to use them if needed.

Beijing News reporter Luan Ruoxi

Editor Zhang Lei Proofreader Yang Li