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According to Xinhua News Agency, the Israeli Security Cabinet meeting issued a statement on the evening of the 28th, saying that cabinet ministers have authorized Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galant to "decide the manner and time of taking countermeasures against Hezbollah."

According to Xinhua News Agency, citing Israeli military and emergency organizations, Hezbollah launched a rocket attack on the Golan Heights on the evening of the 27th, killing at least 12 people and injuring more than 30 people in the Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams, most of whom were teenagers and children. Hezbollah denied launching the attack. On the morning of the 29th, Israeli drones launched six air strikes on five towns and villages in the southern border area of ​​Lebanon, and the Israeli army also fired 35 artillery shells at nine towns and villages in the area.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry said on the 28th that the rocket that caused the Golan Heights attack was an Iranian-made missile launched from the area north of the village of Chebaa in southern Lebanon, and that Hezbollah in Lebanon is the only "terrorist organization" that possesses such rockets. According to the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), a spokesman for Hezbollah in Lebanon said that Hezbollah launched rockets at Israeli military bases in the Golan Heights, but said that it was "completely unrelated" to the attack on Majdal Shams.

The Financial Times reported that Galant said on the 28th that Hezbollah in Lebanon, as an Iranian proxy, was behind the attack and would pay a "heavy price" for the attack. Local media reported that leaders of various Israeli political factions also issued similar retaliatory statements.

Niu Song, a researcher at the Institute of Middle East Studies of Shanghai International Studies University, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that "The Israeli government and people are highly vigilant against any attacks on their territory and areas under their actual control. This incident, as a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues, has further touched the tense nerves of Israeli society. Israel will naturally point the finger at Hezbollah, regardless of whether Hezbollah admits that it has anything to do with the incident."

The Israeli government needs to "explain" to the public, and the Lebanese foreign minister calls for an international investigation

Relevant reports show that the rocket attack on the Golan Heights was the most devastating attack on Israel and its actual controlled areas since the escalation of a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

According to Xinhua News Agency, since the outbreak of a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict on October 7 last year, Lebanon's Hezbollah has launched attacks on northern Israel from time to time, and the Israeli army has retaliated with air strikes and artillery attacks on targets in southern Lebanon.

An Al Jazeera investigation in April found that Israel had carried out five more attacks in Lebanon than Hezbollah. During that period, Israel killed around 300 Hezbollah members and more than 70 civilians, while Israel said it had lost around 15 soldiers and 10 civilians.

In early July, a senior Lebanese commander was killed in an Israeli airstrike and 18 Israeli soldiers were injured in a drone attack by Hezbollah. A UN report shows that the conflict on the Israeli-Lebanese border has forced more than 90,000 Lebanese to flee their homes, and about 100 civilians and 366 Hezbollah fighters have been killed in Israeli attacks, including medical staff, children and journalists.

The Israeli Ministry of Defense once announced that in response to the tension on the Israel-Lebanon border, Israel has approved a plan to launch military operations in Lebanon.

In view of the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel, Niusong believes that "the security cabinet needs to give a timely 'explanation' to Israeli society for the major attack on the Golan Heights-controlled area, and use this opportunity to form a new political and military deterrence against Hezbollah, thereby trying to maintain security in the northern border area."

The Financial Times reported that Hezbollah insiders revealed that Hezbollah is currently on high alert to prevent Israel from launching an attack. At the same time, Lebanese diplomats and government officials are working hard to prevent the outbreak of a full-scale war.

After the Golan Heights attack, no organization has officially claimed responsibility for the attack. Israel and the United States claimed that the attack was launched by Lebanese Hezbollah, while Lebanese Hezbollah denied any involvement in the attack. The Syrian state news agency reported on the 28th that missiles that fell on the Golan Heights were usually launched by Israel.Anti-aircraft missilesIn this incident, local witnesses said they saw a missile from Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system falling.

Xinhua News Agency quoted the Lebanese National News Agency as saying that Lebanese Foreign Minister Habib called for an international investigation into the Golan Heights attack on the 28th. He said that Lebanon opposes attacks targeting civilians anywhere in the world, whether in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon or Israel. He warned that Israel's large-scale attack on Lebanon would lead to the "outbreak of a regional war."

The Lebanese Prime Minister's Office issued a statement on the 28th, saying that the Lebanese government condemns all forms of violence against civilians and that achieving a sustainable ceasefire on all fronts is the only possible solution to prevent further casualties and avoid further deterioration of the local situation. However, the statement did not explicitly mention whether Hezbollah was involved in the attack.

Israeli cabinet divided

A recent analysis in Israel's Haaretz newspaper pointed out that members of the Israeli government and some political parties are deliberately inciting the situation on the Lebanese border. Harrison Mann, a major at the US Defense Intelligence Agency and a former US military intelligence analyst, said in an interview with the British Guardian that Israel dared to take the risk of going to war with Hezbollah in order to ensure the stability of Netanyahu's political power.

Netanyahu and Galant met with senior security cabinet members on the evening of the 28th to discuss Israel's response following the attack on the Golan Heights. According to The Times of Israel, the prime minister's office said that during the four-hour meeting, lawmakers voted to authorize Netanyahu and Galant to decide the scale and timing of Israel's response to the deadly rocket attack on the Golan Heights.

However, according to Israel's Yediot newspaper, Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben-Gvir both abstained from voting. Both are hardliners who advocate increasing the severity of retaliatory actions and have repeatedly expressed the idea of ​​occupying southern Lebanon.

Wang Jin, director of the Israel Research Center at Northwestern University, told The Paper that the town attacked in the Golan Heights is mainly inhabited by Druze, not Jews. "The political orientation of the Druze in the Golan Heights is often different from that of the Druze in Israel. The Druze in Israel generally tend to favor Israeli political identity. The Druze in the Golan Heights, especially the middle-aged and elderly, tend to favor Syrian political identity."

Relevant information shows that the Golan Heights is the land that Israel seized from Syria in the third Middle East War in 1967, but Israel's military action to annex the Golan Heights has not been recognized by most countries.

"So after the attack, whether Ben-Gvir and Smotrich advocated revenge or not, it was actually very embarrassing," said Wang Jin.

In addition, as representatives of the far right in the Israeli cabinet, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have many differences with Netanyahu. US President Biden said on May 31 that the Israeli government had put forward a new proposal to provide a roadmap for achieving a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and ensuring the release of detained persons. However, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir threatened the next day that if Netanyahu implemented the ceasefire proposal, they would overthrow the government.

"The two people's abstention this time, on the one hand, shows their support for the attack on Hezbollah, and on the other hand, it also reflects their vigilance towards the Netanyahu government and their unwillingness to see Netanyahu gain greater power on the issues of war and peace in the context of the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict," Niu Song analyzed.

Earlier, Netanyahu dissolved the wartime cabinet on June 17. Media analysis believes that one of the purposes of this move is to reject the participation of far-right politicians. The British "Guardian" said that this means the end of Israel's coalition government and Netanyahu will have greater control over the Gaza war. CNN believes that by dissolving the wartime cabinet, Netanyahu has avoided the situation of having to accept Ben-Gvir to join the wartime cabinet. If he is allowed to join, it may further intensify the tension between Israel and the United States. If his request is rejected, it may anger the far-right forces in Israel.

After the dissolution of the war cabinet, some issues previously discussed by the war cabinet will be transferred to the larger security cabinet, whose members include Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, and more than a dozen government ministers. However, the members of the security cabinet have different ideas about Hezbollah in Lebanon. Wang Jin believes that Israel currently lacks the preparation and ability to launch a large-scale counterattack against Hezbollah in Lebanon, so "right-wing political forces are more concerned about the situation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip."

Avoiding all-out war

On the 28th, Lebanon's foreign minister said in an interview with Lebanese regional broadcaster al-Hadath that Lebanon asked Washington to put pressure on Israel to force it to exercise restraint.

On the 24th, Netanyahu mentioned in his speech to the US Congress that Israel will make every effort to restore security in the country's northern border area, and anyone who attacks Israel will pay a heavy price.

The Economist article said that American and European diplomats are still conducting shuttle diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon, hoping to persuade the armed forces on both sides to withdraw 7-10 kilometers from the border, but given the current situation, hope is becoming increasingly slim.

Despite the heightened tensions on the border, Al Jazeera quoted analysts as saying that it would be difficult for Israel to expand its war on Lebanon without a ceasefire in Gaza first.

“As long as there is a gun in Gaza, the Israelis will not expand the fight with Lebanon,” Tannous Mouawad, a retired brigadier general of the Lebanese army, told Al Jazeera. “When there is a ceasefire in Gaza, the Israelis will definitely turn to Lebanon.”

Israel's Western allies strongly condemned the attack on the Golan Heights and called on all parties to exercise restraint, fearing that the outbreak of a full-scale war would further expand the instability in the Middle East.

According to the Associated Press, US Secretary of State Blinken emphasized at a press conference in Tokyo on the 28th that Israel "has the right to defend its citizens", but "does not want to see the conflict escalate." Spokespersons for the British and French foreign ministries also issued similar statements on the same day.

U.S. officials have previously warned that an escalation in the conflict with Lebanon's Hezbollah could draw in Iran and other allies in the region.

The Iranian government called on Israel to exercise restraint on the 28th. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani strongly warned Israel not to use the attack on the Golan Heights as an excuse to launch new adventurous actions against Lebanon. He stressed that Israel's actions could lead to the continued development of the regional situation towards instability, insecurity and war.

CCTV News quoted an Iranian media analysis on the 28th, saying that missiles from the Israeli air defense system have landed in Israeli territory or controlled areas more than once. On the 20th of this month, an Israeli "Iron Dome" air defense system missile fell into the Golan Heights, injuring two people. In addition, some recent fires in the Golan Heights and northern Israel were also caused by "Iron Dome" air defense system missiles that failed to hit the target and fell.

Tor Wennesland, the United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, said on the 28th that Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon should "exercise maximum restraint" and warned that an escalation of the situation could "plunge the entire region into unimaginable disaster."