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Text/Jingzhi

According to the Global Times, citing the Russian newspaper "Moscow Komsomolets", on July 24, Putin's press secretary Peskov said that Armenia is a sovereign country and an ally and brother country of Russia. Russia respects Armenia's exploration of independently choosing the priority direction of cooperation, but does not want Armenia to follow the track once chosen by the Kiev regime.Simply put, Russia is warning Armenia to "take care of itself" and not repeat Ukraine's mistakes.

Peskov's words are not groundless. Russian media mentioned that the joint military exercise "Eagle Partner 2024" currently being held between Armenia and the United States will end this month. It is reported that the purpose of this military exercise is mainly to improve the coordination level between the forces participating in international peacekeeping missions, exchange experiences in tactical management and communications, and improve the combat readiness of the Armenian troops.This is the second joint exercise held by the two countries' armies since September last year and is seen as a sign of warming relations between Armenia and the West.But Russia has been Armenia's main ally for centuries and this will undoubtedly damage relations between the two countries.

After the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict ended, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan accused Russia of "inaction", which led to the loss of territory to Azerbaijan, and he demanded that the Russian army withdraw from Armenia. Pashinyan also claimed that Armenia's dependence on Russia for defense was too high, and this situation could not continue. In addition, Armenia intended to withdraw from the CSTO, refusing to attend the summit in November last year and stopping paying membership fees.These moves will weaken Russia's influence in the Caucasus.

In contrast, Armenia and the United States have been getting closer in recent years, which has made Russia quite dissatisfied. In addition to more and more joint military exercises, Armenia may also become a forward base for the United States in the Caucasus region.By using Armenia, the United States can further suppress Iran, control Türkiye, and threaten Russia from the Caucasus.In addition to its important geostrategic value, the Caucasus region also has rich oil, gas and mineral resources, which the United States also wants to control.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia and Russia drifted apart due to the issue of land ownership. Now Armenia, which has long been supported by Russia, also wants to get close to the West, which of course Russia is dissatisfied with. Ukraine is a lesson for us. Ukraine's closeness to NATO is one of the main reasons why Russia decided to take military action against it.After years of war, Ukraine has suffered severe losses, with a large population loss and towns in the eastern region severely damaged.Ukraine's economic situation was already poor, and the outbreak of war made things even worse.

Even with NATO's support, Ukraine is losing more and more territory as the war continues. And with Trump's comeback, military aid to Ukraine may be cut. Without NATO's support, Ukraine is even less able to confront Russia. Under pressure from the status quo, Ukrainian President Zelensky and Foreign Minister Kuleba have recently softened their stance on peace talks. This means that Ukraine may really give up its obsession and trade territory for peace.After all, Ukraine is still a European country close to NATO. In comparison, Armenia, located in the Caucasus region, can obtain more limited Western military aid, and the cost of confronting Russia may be greater.

It's not just Russia. Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran are probably not happy to see the addition of a pro-American country in the Caucasus region.Therefore, the better the relationship between Armenia and the United States, the more isolated it will be in the region and the greater the external threats will be.So for Armenia, which is trying to get closer to the West, Ukraine, which is deeply mired in war, is a lesson for it. It should not let itself become the Ukraine of the Caucasus.