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As if he had grasped the news that Biden would withdraw from the 2024 US presidential election in advance, on July 19 local time, the day after Trump officially accepted the Republican presidential nomination, Ukrainian President Zelensky took the initiative to call Trump. This was the first call between Zelensky and Trump since 2020.

Although the full content of the conversation has not been made public, both Zelensky and Trump gave positive comments on the exchange. After the call, Trump said on his social media that he would bring peace to the world and end the war that has claimed so many lives. Zelensky said in a statement that he emphasized in his call with Trump the important support of both parties and both houses of the United States for protecting the country's freedom and independence. He and Trump have agreed to discuss in a private meeting what measures can make peace fair and truly lasting.

Objectively speaking, Ukraine does not like Trump's stance on the Ukrainian crisis, but faced with Trump's rising approval rating in the US election, Zelensky's policy team had to advise him to establish necessary contact with Trump and change Trump's stance in a direction that is beneficial to Ukraine.

Before the dust settles on the U.S. election results, it may be difficult for Zelensky to change Trump's position on Ukraine. Because Trump's campaign slogan "Make America Great Again" is his stepping stone to re-enter the White House, and the Biden administration's Ukraine policy is always Trump's target during the campaign. Trump has said in many public occasions that Zelensky takes away $60 billion every time he comes to the country and is the greatest salesman ever. In the debate with Biden on June 28, Trump criticized Biden for providing a large amount of military aid to Ukraine.

In addition, Trump's choice of Vance, who holds an isolationist policy, as his running mate has also increased Zelensky's concerns about the future. US media analysis said that Vance's political stance would bring considerable pressure on Ukraine. In April 2024, after the US Congress approved about $61 billion in military aid to Ukraine, Vance explicitly opposed the measure and said, "The American people will not tolerate another endless war, and neither will I."

Zelensky is well aware of Trump's influence on American politics. For this reason, Zelensky always tactfully expresses his dissatisfaction with Trump's remarks that are unfavorable to Ukraine. After Trump became the unanimous presidential candidate nominated by the Republican Party of the United States, Zelensky actively showed goodwill to Trump. He immediately condemned the assassination attempt on Trump through social media, and publicly stated at a press conference in Kiev that if Trump was elected president, Ukraine would be willing to cooperate with the Trump administration.

Ukrainian officials have also publicly stated that they are not worried that Trump's position on Ukraine will change. Trump's anti-Ukraine rhetoric is just part of the campaign war and may not reflect his post-election policy.

After Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential election, Zelensky expressed on his social media that Ukraine is grateful for Biden's firm support for Ukraine's struggle for freedom, which has been and will continue to play an important role along with the strong support of both parties in the United States. The current situation in Ukraine and Europe as a whole is equally serious, and we sincerely hope that the United States will continue to play a strong leadership role. This seems to indicate that Trump did not make any guarantees to Zelensky during the call, partly because Trump was not sure at the time that Biden would withdraw from the election or that he would definitely win, and partly because Trump needed to listen to the professional advice of his national security team.

Zelensky made his move and proposed a new peace plan. On July 15, 2024, Zelensky said in a national speech that he hoped Russia would send a delegation to the Ukrainian peace summit in November, which was close to the Ukrainian peace plan proposed by China to a certain extent. Russia was not invited to the Ukrainian peace summit held in Switzerland in June. Zelensky said at the time that any negotiations could only take place after Russia withdrew from Ukraine.

Of course, Zelensky adjusted the peace talks plan not only because of the US election situation, but also because the large-scale US military aid did not stop Russia's military offensive, but mainly played a role in slowing down Russia's advance. Zelensky's change of position can only indicate that the Ukrainian crisis may take a turn for the better, but it does not mean that the crisis has reached a "turning point". Zelensky's new peace plan only changed the conditions for participating in the negotiations, but did not change the content of the peace agreement.

For Trump, talking to Zelensky before the results of the US presidential election are announced is a plus. It can not only attract the attention of global public opinion, but also win more support from American voters who sympathize with Ukraine's situation.

(Xiao Bin, researcher at the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Zhang Xiaohui, associate professor at the School of Urban Economics and Public Administration, Capital University of Economics and Business)

Author: Xiao Bin Zhang Xiaohui

Editor: Xu Fangqing