news

[Global Times special correspondent in Russia Xiao Xinxin Liu Yupeng] Ukrainian President Zelensky's tone has changed. CNN said on the 20th that in the face of the difficult frontline reality and the prospect of Trump's possible entry into the White House, Zelensky's "tone was unusually restrained" when he addressed the nation a few days ago, and hinted that he was willing to negotiate with Russia. The report said that this was the first time in more than two years since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Some analysts believe that Zelensky may try to contact Trump, who may come to power in the future, by expressing his willingness to negotiate. Zelensky had a phone call with Trump on the 19th. Although Trump said that "the call was very good", he did not say a word on the key issue of whether he supported continued aid to Ukraine, and reiterated that he would "end this conflict that has taken countless lives." Europe has sensitively shown some signs of changes in the international situation regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: Germany, one of Ukraine's largest aid donors, will halve its aid to Ukraine in the 2025 budget; Johnson, the former British Prime Minister who has the most resolute anti-Russian stance, wrote an article in the Daily Mail, proposing that Ukraine abandon its demand to restore the 1991 border.

On the 19th, Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the UK to seek assistance. (Visual China)

Trump may visit Ukraine?

According to CNN, Zelensky is currently facing a double blow: the difficult front-line situation and the uncertainty of the future support of his closest allies. People are beginning to question whether some of Ukraine's closest allies - especially the United States and Germany - are willing to continue to invest resources to support Kiev. In this regard, Zelensky complained in his speech that "Ukraine has not received enough Western assistance to win the war." He said: "We know what the just outcome of the war is, but not everything depends on us, but also on finance, weapons, political support, the EU, NATO and the unity of the world." He also threatened that the results of the war "may go far beyond the borders of Ukraine."

CNN stated that the worst-case scenario facing Ukraine may become a reality - the United States may stop providing aid and Europe will also cut aid. In this regard, former US Ambassador to Ukraine Herbst claimed at the Aspen Security Forum on the 20th that in this situation, Zelensky changed his tone. He may try to reach out to Trump, who may come to power in the future, by expressing his willingness to negotiate. However, regarding the possibility of cutting off aid to Ukraine after Trump takes office, Herbst warned: "If Trump cuts off aid to Ukraine, Ukraine will collapse, and that will be a major failure that Trump has caused to the United States. This failure will dwarf the embarrassment and damage caused by the Biden administration's incompetent withdrawal from Afghanistan. Someone on Trump's team will understand this."

On the 19th local time, Trump and Zelensky spoke on the phone. Afterwards, Trump posted on the social platform that "this call was very good." "Zelensky congratulated me on my success at the Republican National Convention and becoming the Republican presidential candidate. He condemned the outrageous assassination attempt last Saturday..." Trump wrote, "Thank you Zelensky for your support, because as the next President of the United States, I will bring peace to the world and end this conflict that has claimed countless lives and destroyed countless innocent families." The Associated Press said that the call was the day after Trump officially won the Republican presidential nomination. It is not clear whether Trump will continue to support military aid to Ukraine if elected.

On the 20th, Zelensky also posted on the social platform X, wishing Trump "strong and absolutely safe", and expressed "thank you for the important support of the United States in protecting our country's freedom and independence". He also said that he planned to hold a face-to-face meeting with Trump, "We will discuss what measures can be taken to make the world just and truly peaceful." Nikiforov, the press secretary of the Ukrainian president, said on the same day that Trump might visit Ukraine. However, details such as time and place are still uncertain.

'It's going to be a nightmare'

Regarding Zelensky's hint of negotiation, the Russian Free Media website said on the 21st that after Biden lost the debate with Trump, especially after Trump's support rate soared after the assassination attempt, Zelensky's circle fell into panic. Kiev realized that Trump had a very good chance of winning the election. Therefore, Kiev began to frantically seek contact with Trump. However, Trump only talked about "ending the conflict" in general. The Russian Foreign Ministry said a few days ago that Trump's campaign rhetoric that he could quickly end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict should be viewed realistically.

The Russian Satellite News Agency quoted experts as saying that given the current situation, it is impossible for Russia to negotiate with Zelensky. Zelensky is not a negotiating party and needs to be replaced. Secondly, the positions of Russia and the West are irreconcilable. Judging from the statement of the NATO summit, the West will not seriously negotiate with Russia at present. Therefore, serious negotiations are only possible after a really serious crisis. The report said that this could turn into a major war. Without such a big turmoil, at least before the US election, negotiations are basically impossible.

Forbes website said on the 21st that Kiev Mayor Klitschko said in an interview that the next few months will be very difficult for Zelensky. "Should he continue to fight, which will cause more death and destruction, or consider compromising with Putin? If Trump wins the presidential election, what pressure will he face from the United States? How can we explain to the country that we will have to give up our territory? Whatever measures we take, he is in danger of political suicide." Klitschko also doubted whether Zelensky could make this painful decision independently, and said that the Ukrainian authorities might have to resort to a referendum. He said, "If the conflict continues for another two years, it will be a nightmare."

Many parties began to "retreat"

Europe is the most sensitive to the changes in the international situation regarding the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Russian News Agency said on the 21st that during Zelensky's visit to the UK, his closest ally suggested that Kiev give up Donbas and Crimea. According to the report, former British Prime Minister Johnson wrote in the Daily Mail that if Trump came to power, it is possible to end the conflict with conditions favorable to the West, one of which is that Ukraine agrees to accept the border as of February 23, 2022. This means that Ukraine has given up its demand to restore the 1991 border.

Regarding Johnson's "peace plan", some analysts believe that Johnson was the main Western politician who encouraged Zelensky to tear up the draft peace agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey at the beginning of the conflict. His sudden change of attitude now is either because he is worried that NATO will lose the war or he is trying to curry favor with Trump.

The Associated Press reported that Secretary of State Blinken directly discussed for the first time at the Aspen Security Forum on the 20th the possibility of the United States withdrawing its aid commitment to Ukraine after Trump may win the election. Blinken said that any US government will formulate its own policies, and "there is no way to be sure what the future will be like." "If we withdraw our aid commitment to Ukraine... I guess there is a possibility. But fortunately, we still have about 20 allies who continue to do this."

However, other allies are also backing off on the issue of aid to Ukraine. German newspaper Die Welt reported that German Chancellor Scholz rejected Zelensky's previous request for Western countries to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine when answering reporters' questions on the 18th. Reuters reported the day before that the German government's aid to Ukraine in next year's budget will be less generous, and will reduce military aid to Ukraine from 8 billion euros in 2024 to 4 billion euros in 2025.