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On July 21, the topic of "gold prices soared and then plunged" became a hot search on Weibo. This week, the gold market experienced another violent shock, which attracted widespread attention from the market.

It is worth noting that the price of gold has been falling slightly since the 17th, and fell by more than 2% on the 19th, once falling below the important psychological barrier of $2,400 per ounce.

On the news front, market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates continue to heat up, with bets on a rate cut in September reaching 98%, which also supports gold prices. However, some analysts pointed out that if gold prices fail to hold $2,400 at the close, it will be more difficult to reach $2,500 in the short term.

However, if US economic data performs poorly or market expectations of Trump's victory increase, gold prices may get a further boost.

World Gold Council: Global gold ETF inflows reached $1.4 billion in June

According to data from the World Gold Council, global gold prices rose in June.ETFAttracted $1.4 billion in capital inflows, which isThis was the second consecutive month of capital inflows.

The strong trend of gold prices and recent inflows into gold ETFs have pushed total assets under management (AUM) to $233 billion. In the first half of 2024, global gold ETFs had a cumulative outflow of $6.7 billion, the largest first-half outflow since 2013. However, despite the outflows, the total AUM of global gold ETFs still increased by 8.8% in the first half of the year.

It can also be seen from these data that the gold ETF market has experienced some volatility in recent times. Despite large outflows in the first half of the year, the inflows in June showed that the market's interest in gold has recovered. The strengthening of gold prices may be a factor in attracting inflows, and investors may view gold as a safe-haven asset or a hedge against inflation.

At the same time, the average daily trading volume of the global gold market reached US$195 billion in June, a decrease of 9.5% from the previous month; the over-the-counter trading volume increased by 8.6% from May. The World Gold Council believes that the global gold market has ample liquidity. Although the trading volume decreased in June, the average daily trading volume of the global gold market in the first half of 24 years was still as high as US$210 billion.

Looking ahead to the future market, the World Gold Council pointed out that the outlook for gold is not entirely bright. If the central bank's demand for gold purchases drops sharply or a large number of Asian investors take profits, it may affect gold performance.

However, looking back at the first half of the year, gold has brought more returns to global investors than most investment categories. In addition, from a long-term perspective, the allocation value of gold is still very important.

Turning point or temporary pullback?

In less than a week, the international gold price hit a new high twice and then quickly plunged, which is "stimulating" the sensitive market.

On the news front, the market's expectations for the Fed's September rate cut have increased, which has supported gold prices to a certain extent. Recent remarks by Fed Chairman Powell have also strengthened the market's confidence that inflation will return to target.

The Fed has become increasingly confident that inflation is falling back toward its 2% target and has said it will start cutting interest rates before inflation actually falls to that goal.

Speaking of inflation, Powell said he has seen three better readings, and if you take the average, it's a pretty good slowdown.

The figures "do add some confidence" that inflation is slowing in a sustainable manner.

In addition, Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, also pointed out that if the U.S.GDPGold prices could get a boost if data shows a slowdown in economic activity and could potentially rally back to recent highs.

However, some analysts pointed out thatThe current market is overly optimistic about the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations, which is an important reason for the sharp fluctuations in gold prices.

Looking ahead, JPMorgan Chase said that gold’s structuralBull MarketThe gold price trend will remain upward in the next few quarters, with an average price of $2,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter of this year and $2,600 per ounce in 2025.

Huatai Securities also pointed out that the two different transactions of "interest rate cut" and "Trump 2.0" are both beneficial to the performance of gold and some alternative assets. In the medium and long term, gold is still a good configuration that can "attack when advancing and defend when retreating, and has room for long-term development."