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the trend is up, and there will be more good news!

in early trading today, a50 continued to rise sharply, with hong kong's hang seng index opening up 0.93%. the hang seng technology index rose 1.36%. subsequently, hong kong stocks continued to rise, with smic rising nearly 9%. hongguang semiconductor rose 15%. jd.com rose more than 2%. guolian securities rose 14.57%. vanke enterprises rose more than 4%. at the same time, four major positive factors followed.

first of all, due to the sharp fall in the yen exchange rate, carry trades have emerged again, and the japanese stock market has also risen sharply. at the same time, global stock markets are also showing signs of switching between high and low, such as significant capital outflows from the indian stock market.

secondly, foreign investment continues to boost china’s market rating. citi upgraded chinese consumer stocks to overweight from neutral and real estate stocks to neutral from underweight.

third, there are good things to come at the industry level. the latest data from the semiconductor industry association (sia) pointed out that thanks to the explosion in demand for artificial intelligence, global semiconductor sales reached a new high of 53.1 billion u.s. dollars, an increase of 20.6% over the same period last year, the largest annual increase since april 2022.

fourth, market enthusiasm continues unabated, and otc funds continue to enter the market.

continue to rise

in early trading this morning, the hong kong stock market continued to rise. after opening higher, the gains of the three major stock indexes expanded rapidly. the hang seng technology index rose to a level of nearly 4%, and the hang seng index rose by more than 1.5%. smic rose nearly 20%. sihuan pharmaceutical rose more than 26%, and fosun pharmaceutical rose more than 5%.

shares of chinese securities companies in hong kong continued to surge at the beginning of the trading session. china merchants securities rose by more than 12%, everbright securities and shenwan hongyuan rose by more than 10%, citic securities rose by nearly 9%, and cicc and gf securities rose by more than 6%. new energy batteries, semiconductors, medical beauty, environmental protection and other sectors increased by more than 10%.

judging from the trend of a50, it has not been affected by the depreciation of the rmb and the rise of the us dollar index last week. it rose sharply in early trading today, and the increase soon exceeded 2%.

haitong strategy believes that the current market situation is similar to the may 19 market situation in 1999. to get out of the dilemma of low demand and falling prices, the balance sheet must be repaired first, and then physical demand can be restored. the initial stage is an asset revaluation market. from 1999 to 2001, the 519 market of asset revaluation eventually escalated into a bull market driven by fundamentals. the fundamentals have recovered during this period of conversion of old and new driving forces, and continued fiscal efforts are needed. drawing from the 519 market, short-term trends track trading volume and turnover rate. real estate and consumer medicine have experienced large declines in the past three years, and the revaluation market due to policy efforts has become more flexible. brokerages have benefited from heavy market transactions.

brokerage china reporters also found that there are indeed certain similarities in the background of the two waves of market conditions (employment status, inflation pattern, geographical relations, etc.). moreover, that wave of market was also very fierce at the beginning, but the intensity was not as high as the current market. moreover, when the first wave of market rose to 20%, there was a slight fluctuation. of course, during that wave of market conditions, the shanghai composite index rose by nearly 70%. moreover, the inflation pattern did improve after the market rose.

four major favorable factors

sometimes, when the market picks up, good things happen one after another. after hong kong stocks surged last week, good news struck again over the weekend and this morning.

first, the yen fell sharply, and carry trades may have reappeared in the market. japanese stocks surged in early trading. the nikkei 225 index rose 2% in early trading, and japanese financial stocks generally rose. mizuho financial group, nomura holdings, and mitsubishi ufj financial rose more than 4%. at the same time, the global market experienced a high-low switch, and the indian stock market encountered the largest net selling by global funds since at least january 1, 1999.

secondly, foreign investment continues to boost china’s market rating. citigroup raised its rating on chinese consumer stocks from neutral to overweight and raised its rating on real estate stocks from underweight to neutral. china a shares have more room to rise than h shares because there are more direct supports from the stock market. goldman sachs raised the chinese stock market to "overweight" and raised the target price of the csi 300 index from 4,000 points to 4,600 points.

kong rong, chief analyst of overseas research strategy at tianfeng securities, interpreted the "great era of hong kong stocks" online. kong rong said that overseas funds are stepping up their efforts to understand chinese assets. if they do not allocate chinese asset positions, they may underperform. in fact, since the end of september, many overseas hedge funds and some long-term overseas funds have begun to learn about china again. assets.

third, otc funds are actively waiting for the market. it is understood that the average daily account opening amount of some securities companies during the national day is 7-8 times higher than that during normal periods. the icbc bank-securities transfer index (september 24-september 30) was 2.15, 1.40, 4.40, 7.04, and 16.71 respectively. individual investors are 1.19, 1.87, 1.08, 5.20, and 16.92 respectively. in addition, industry insiders revealed that the hong kong market has shown signs of large amounts of funds returning from overseas.

fourth, good news is also emerging at the industry level. the latest data from the semiconductor industry association (sia) pointed out that thanks to the explosion in demand for artificial intelligence, global semiconductor sales reached a new high of us$53.1 billion, an increase of 20.6% over the same period last year, the largest annual growth since april 2022. from a regional perspective, semiconductor sales in the americas in august were the strongest with an annual increase of 43.9%, followed by china with a 19.2% increase, asia-pacific and other regions with an annual increase of 17.1%, and japan with an annual increase of 2%. the only region with negative growth was europe, with an annual decrease of 9%. sia president and ceo john neuffer said that the annual sales growth in august was the largest since april 2022, mainly due to the boost in the american market. in addition, the monthly growth rates in all regions have increased, which is the first time since october 2023.

in addition, data compiled by sia compiled by the world semiconductor trade statistics society (wsts) also showed that global chip sales increased by 3.5% in august from us$51.3 billion in july. wsts predicts that global chip sales will further climb to us$687 billion next year. although the growth rate may be reduced to 12.5%, chip sales in all regions are expected to show positive growth.