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[text/wang kaiwen of observer network]

on october 6, local time, israel continued to bomb hezbollah targets in the gaza strip and lebanon, causing a large number of casualties. hezbollah's rockets penetrated israel's air defense system and landed in northern israel. on the first anniversary of the outbreak of this round of palestinian-israeli conflict, the conflict is still reincarnating.

on october 7, 2023, the "aqsa flood" of the palestinian islamic resistance movement (hamas) brought israel back to the nightmare of the "yom kippur war". after coming back to its senses, israel launched retaliatory air strikes on the gaza strip, and a new round of palestinian-israeli conflict suddenly broke out.

a year later, nearly 42,000 palestinians were killed in israeli attacks, nearly two million people were displaced, and gaza, already ravaged, was left with nothing. and dozens of israelis are still held hostage by hamas.

from the moment the conflict broke out, the crisis spread far beyond gaza, evolving into a confrontation between the "axis of resistance" led by israel and iran. lebanese hezbollah, yemen's houthi armed forces, and iraqi militia groups have joined the war to support hamas.

today, the ceasefire in gaza is far away, and new crises are coming one after another:

under the banner of "let northern residents return home safely", israel's "arrow of the north" was fired at lebanon, and the situation in lebanon and israel suddenly heated up; the leaders of hamas and hezbollah and the deputy commander of the "quds force" were successively attacked by " targeted killings", iran, which could not bear it anymore, finally launched revenge against israel on the eve of the jewish new year...

dong manyuan, a researcher at the china institute of international studies and an expert on middle east issues, recently told observer.com that israeli prime minister netanyahu is facing challenges from the opposition parties and even internal challenges from the likud group at home, and opening the northern front is to prolong his political life. however, lebanese hezbollah is a more difficult opponent than hamas. if israel is blocked from opening a buffer zone in southern lebanon, it will inevitably escalate its combat operations against hezbollah.

on the other hand, as iran launches its second attack on israel from its homeland, israeli retaliation is imminent. dong manyuan pointed out that iran's attack on israel was an unbearable forced counterattack. its purpose has been achieved and it is unwilling to escalate the conflict. the subsequent development of the situation depends on how israel responds.

"israel's retaliation against iran will definitely be stronger than its actions in april this year, so the situation in the middle east is still likely to escalate. but whether it will trigger a full-scale war between israel and iran remains to be seen." dong manyuan said.

after gaza, lebanon "falls into hell" again

in the past 20 days, lebanon has suffered large-scale israeli air strikes and ground invasions after thousands of communications equipment were detonated. hezbollah’s top leadership, including lebanese leader nasrallah, has almost lost all its members.

at the same time, the tragedy that unfolded in gaza is being repeated in lebanon. according to the lebanese ministry of health, more than 2,000 people have been killed in lebanon during the nearly year-long conflict, most of them in the past two weeks. data released by the international organization for migration show that as of october 2, lebanon has recorded more than 540,000 internally displaced persons, an increase of 56% compared with september 29.

"lebanon is falling into a hellish disaster." united nations secretary-general guterres recently called on israel and lebanese hezbollah not to launch a catastrophic war.

this roundpalestinian-israeli conflictat the beginning, israel set three major operational goals for itself, namely, the elimination of hamas, the release of israeli detainees, and the gaza strip no longer posing a security threat to israel. on september 16 this year, the day before the lebanese communications equipment exploded, the israeli security cabinet listed "allowing residents of northern israel to return home safely" as a new operational goal.

the gaza issue has not yet been completely resolved, so why does israel want to expand its combat objectives and shift the focus of the conflict to lebanon? dong manyuan believes that although israel still needs to concentrate its energy and resources on solving the gaza issue, gaza no longer does not need so many combat troops at this stage, and the lebanese hezbollah continues to carry out diversionary combat operations against israel on the lebanese-israeli border and is targeting netani yahu poses a big challenge.

“the root cause of this challenge lies in netanyahu’s overall consideration of the current military operations against gaza and hezbollah in lebanon, as well as his ability to extend his term in power, evade corruption charges, and continue to hold high the banner of right-wing populism.”

dong manyuan pointed out that netanyahu is currently facing attacks from the israeli opposition parties, even afterlikudthere is also an internal challenge from defense secretary galante. on the basis of the gaza war, netanyahu has added a new goal of letting northern residents return to their homes. this is also to pave the way for his public opinion base and future elections.

dong manyuan said that if israel wants to achieve its goals, it must open a buffer zone in southern lebanon to reduce the threat of hezbollah to northern israel.

previously, israeli defense minister galante and finance minister motrich had both declared that they would ensure that hezbollah and its infrastructure were pushed north of the litani river.

"israel wants to open a buffer zone on the south side of the litani river. if hezbollah adopts acquiescence, the lebanese-israeli conflict will pass. if hezbollah does not let israel succeed, israel will escalate its combat operations against hezbollah. strive to severely damage hezbollah," dong manyuan said.

but lebanese hezbollah is a far more formidable opponent than hamas. dong manyuan said that it is very difficult for israel to severely damage its armed forces, and the scale of the current military operation is far from enough.

"if israel wants to severely damage hezbollah, the scale of its military operations must be equal to or even greater than the scale of israel's military operations against lebanon during the fifth middle east war."

in june 1982, under the pretext that its ambassador to the uk was assassinated by palestinian militants, israel dispatched more than 100,000 troops, navy and air force to attack palestinian forces in lebanon. the war ended in israeli victory and the plo withdrew from lebanon.

"without reaching this scale, the goal of severely damaging hezbollah's armed forces cannot be achieved. therefore, there is still the possibility that israel's military operations against hezbollah in lebanon will continue to escalate and even evolve into a full-scale war." dong manyuan said.

however, he pointed out that even if israel can open up a buffer zone through ground military operations, it still faces difficult choices.

"now that the buffer zone has been opened, do israeli ground troops have to be stationed here? not stationing means withdrawing troops. once the troops withdraw, hezbollah will come back. stationing means that the security risks originally borne by the residents of northern israel are now transferred to as for the israel defense forces, they will be attacked by hezbollah from time to time and become a living target of hezbollah.”

dong manyuan added: "in the 1980s, israel used the south lebanon army it supported to guard the buffer zone in southern lebanon, but now israel can no longer find such an agent. in this case, even if israel opens a buffer zone , we can only take one step at a time.”

iran: no more self-restraint?

on the evening of october 1, local time, iran fired nearly 200 rockets into israel. tehran later stated that iran’s phase of unilateral self-restraint had ended.

"iran's action was forced to counterattack." dong manyuan said that iran is currently in a special period. not long after the new president pezehiqiyan took office, he has shown a moderate stance on foreign policy and frequently released policies seeking improvement and cooperation. a signal for western relations. while attending the united nations general assembly at the end of last month, pezeshchiyan also issued a "peace invitation" to israel, which means that iran is willing to ease its relations with israel and expects israel to make corresponding remarks.

however, on the second day of pezeshizyan's inauguration, hamas leader haniyeh, who came to attend the inauguration ceremony, was attacked and killed in tehran; at the end of september, lebanese hezbollah leader nasrallah and iran's "quds force" "deputy commander nir forushan was targeted for execution by israel one after another. israel bullied others so much that iran had no choice but to respond.

dong manyuan pointed out that iran’s attack on israel on october 1 was significantly more severe than the round of attacks in april. according to iran, 90% of its missiles hit their targets.

“from iran’s perspective, it implemented the instructions of its supreme leader ayatollah ali khamenei, avenged the three martyrs of haniyeh, nasrallah, and nirfurushan, and at the same time attacked israel and showed it that iran powerful medium-range missile penetration capabilities.”

"iran's goal has basically been achieved. it wants this stage to pass and does not want the situation to continue to escalate. but whether it can pass depends on how israel reacts." dong manyuan said.

israel has stated that it will take "major and severe" retaliation against iran around october 7. according to a statement issued by israeli officials, all options are under consideration, such as strikes on iran's nuclear facilities and oil production facilities, or "targeted killings" against members of iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps, "precision raids" against iranian military assets, etc. .

u.s. president biden recently stated that he does not support israel's attack on iran's nuclear facilities and called on israel to consider other alternatives to attacking iran's oil fields.

"the united states is worried that the situation is out of control, but israel is now preparing to attack iran-related targets based on its own political needs." dong manyuan said, "the scale of israel's attack on iran will definitely be larger than in april this year, but if israel does not targeting iran’s leaders or nuclear facilities will not trigger a full-scale war between the two countries.”

on the other hand, dong manyuan predicts that if israel chooses to attack iran's key oil facilities, iran will not accept it, regardless of its interests or its face, and will strike back against israel again. this counterattack israeli energy facilities may be targeted, but the scale will be limited. "iran will still implement a principle: it must attack israel's arrogance without triggering a full-scale war with israel. in this case, the contest between iran and israel may last a few rounds and then pass."

according to liu zhongmin, professor at the institute of middle east studies at shanghai international studies university and vice president of the china middle east society, after this round of attacks on israel on october 1, if iran really chooses to end up in direct conflict with israel, it is not completely without the capital to confront it. .

"however, making this choice will obviously put the country's development into a more serious dilemma as the confrontation escalates. iran's choice is to either fight israel to the end, break the pot and devote all its limited national power to the confrontation; or to prepare for the future the goal is to leave room for development to avoid the outbreak of large-scale conflicts and mitigate the damage to comprehensive national strength. this is iran's biggest dilemma at present."

the road to ceasefire is difficult

dong manyuan said that the overall root cause of the recent series of conflicts is the palestinian issue. “whether it is hezbollah’s diversionary combat operations against israel on the lebanese-israeli border, yemen’s houthi armed forces blocking the red sea channel, iraq’s shia armed forces trying to attack israel, or iran’s missile attacks on the israeli mainland, they are all spillovers from the gaza conflict. performance.”

over the past year, although the international community has made many efforts to achieve a ceasefire in gaza, it has never been successful.

in november last year, israel and hamas briefly reached a ceasefire and exchanged some detained personnel. but as negotiations between the two sides reached a deadlock, the war in gaza resumed. since then, various parties, including the united states, egypt, and qatar, have held multiple rounds of talks on issues such as a ceasefire in gaza and the release of detained persons.

on may 31 this year, the biden administration announced a three-phase ceasefire plan, which was subsequently voted and approved by the united nations security council. israel and hamas initially expressed their acceptance of the ceasefire plan, but israel's attacks on gaza showed no signs of stopping.

in august this year, reuters quoted multiple sources as saying that the differences stemmed from israel’s new demands after hamas accepted the three-phase ceasefire plan. these new demands include israel’s continued stationing of troops along the nazarim corridor. israel changed its conditions at the "last minute", causing hamas to worry that any concessions it made would lead to further advances.

"israel wants to exchange a technical ceasefire for the release of all hostages and then resume military operations. but hamas relies on these hostages to 'save their lives'." dong manyuan said.

he further explained that the so-called "saving lives" means asking israel to terminate its military operations in gaza and withdraw its troops from gaza. at the same time, let hamas personnel return to northern gaza and participate in the reconstruction and management of gaza after the war. the most core of them are the first two.

"regarding the three-phase ceasefire plan proposed by the biden administration, israel is actually only interested in the first phase. netanyahu's current idea is to exchange as many hostages as he can, so that he will have an explanation to the country ”

"as for the second and third stages, israel is not too interested, and even if an agreement is reached, israel will tear it up if it wants to in the future. hamas has long seen israel's intentions clearly, and israel also knows that hamas holds hostages for 'save your life'. the gap between the two sides' positions is too big and difficult to bridge," dong manyuan said.

where is the conflict headed?

it has been one year since the current round of palestinian-israeli conflict, and israel has not yet achieved its combat goals. although netanyahu said in july this year that the israeli military is moving towards the "final stage" of annihilating hamas, the outside world generally believes that the so-called "elimination of hamas" is almost impossible to achieve.

in the palestinian-israeli conflict and the recent lebanese-israeli conflict, the differences between the united states and israel seem to be increasing. the biden administration has increasingly criticized israel publicly, and in may this year it even "suspended" weapons shipments to israel. but on the other hand, the united states has repeatedly emphasized its support for israel's self-defense, and its military aid plan to israel continues to advance.

as israel's ally and largest military aid provider, the united states has long been "biased" on the palestinian-israeli issue. it can be said that the united states cannot escape its blame for the gaza issue reaching this stage.

in dong manyuan's view, the current biden administration intends to prevent israel from expanding the conflict, "but israel does not listen to him. in other words, the united states cannot stop israel."

"netanyahu is desperate to eliminate hamas and open a buffer zone in southern lebanon through military means for his political considerations. neither the united nations resolution nor the so-called 'persuasion' from the united states can do anything now. stop netanyahu from going his own way.”

“as for the biden administration, although it continues to make noises in the hope of achieving a ceasefire, it is hijacked by the strategic relationship between the united states and israel and the powerful jewish forces in the country, and it has to reiterate its support for netanyahu. "dong manyuan said that the biden administration appears to be powerless on this issue, and it also has a mentality of "it can play as big a role as it can."

it is worth mentioning that when netanyahu visited the united states at the end of july this year, in addition to meeting with us president biden and vice president harris, he also went to mar-a-lago to meet with republican presidential candidate trump.

during the trump administration, u.s.-israel relations entered a "honeymoon period." trump announced in december 2017 that he would recognize jerusalem as the capital of israel, which was widely opposed by the international community. dong manyuan described the republican government’s support for israel as “unreserved.”

the us politico news network bluntly stated in a report in july that netanyahu believed that biden was already a "lame duck" and was betting on trump to become the next president. a senior middle east diplomat involved in ceasefire negotiations said, "our assessment is that netanyahu wants to delay time until the november (u.s.) election." lebanese "news" said that egyptian president sisi obtained a intelligence assessments also believe that ceasefire negotiations in gaza may not make progress until november, and netanyahu believes that if trump is elected, he will have greater room for maneuver.

"the current election situation in the united states is confusing, and israel is still waiting. but one thing can be predicted. the war in gaza will not stop before the u.s. election in november, and the fighting between israel and hezbollah in lebanon may also continue."

talking about the circumstances under which this round of palestinian-israeli conflict will end, dong manyuan said that the ceasefire in gaza may cause hamas to lose control of gaza and integrate its political, military and religious power into the people. symbol of long-term underground struggle. "hamas' development will enter a low ebb, and it needs to slowly regain its strength and deal with israel for a long time."

"the palestinian issue has been marginalized for a long time, and the historical injustice of the palestinian people has not been corrected, which led to a new round of palestinian-israeli conflict that started on october 7 last year." dong manyuan said, "after experiencing this round of conflict , the international community’s attention to the palestinian issue will increase, and international efforts to promote the implementation of the two-state solution will also increase.”

liu zhongmin believes that this conflict has brought the palestinian issue back to the core of regional affairs, partially changing the previously marginalized situation of the palestinian issue. however, there are still too many difficulties that need to be resolved before resuming negotiations, seeking the establishment of a palestinian state, and realizing the "two-state solution."

"after the palestinian and israeli sides experienced this conflict, the situation seems to have become more confusing as to how to find the starting point for negotiations and a plan to end the conflict." liu zhongmin said.

over the past year, the tragedies caused by israel in gaza and lebanon have angered the world, and israel has begun to suffer backlash:

in december 2023, south africa filed a lawsuit with the international court of justice, accusing israel of committing genocide in the gaza strip. since then, chile, spain, colombia, cuba, turkey and other countries have joined the ranks; since this year, jamaica, the bahamas, spain, ireland, norway and other countries have successively announced their recognition of the palestinian state.

at the 79th united nations general assembly, which opened at the end of september, countries made no secret of their anger towards israel. when netanyahu took to the podium, boos continued at the conference. representatives from palestine, iran, saudi arabia and other countries stood up and left. general assembly president philemon young repeatedly banged the gavel to remind participants to pay attention to order. outside the venue, demonstrations against israel and in solidarity with palestine took place one after another.

liu zhongmin pointed out that israel’s response over the past year, including the military operations launched against hamas, is based on its long-standing strategic culture and security philosophy.

liu zhongmin said that currently, israel is seeking to establish a security buffer zone in gaza and southern lebanon. if the buffer zone can be built while continuing to fight against hostile forces, israel's security environment can be improved to some extent, but it will still be an endless vicious cycle. as israel falls into severe political and diplomatic isolation, and surrounding anti-israel forces become more hostile to israel, israel's security environment has essentially deteriorated further.

this article is an exclusive manuscript of observer.com and may not be reproduced without authorization.