institutional market outlook丨the a-share market has entered a new stage, and investment decisions should be made with bull market thinking
2024-10-06
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the three major indexes rebounded strongly before the holidays. in the five trading days before the holidays from september 24 to september 30, the shanghai stock exchange index rose by 21.38%, the shenzhen component index rose by 30.26%, and the chinext index rose by 42.12%. how will the market outlook for a-shares go? see what the agency has to say:
citic construction investment: the a-share market has entered a new stage and investment decisions should be made with a bull market mindset
citic construction investment's research report believes that with the introduction of the financial policy package, a-shares staged a "5-day miracle", and market sentiment quickly left the panic zone and entered the excitement zone in only 5 trading days. the current market sentiment has returned to the high zone after three years, and has returned to the excitement zone after four years. the current high investor sentiment means that the a-share market has entered a new stage, and we should make investment decisions with a bull market mindset. does the booming investment enthusiasm mean that the market is overheating and risk adjustment? judging from the experience of 2015, 2019 and 2020, after emotions enter the excitement zone, the market often continues to rise in the short term. there may be some adjustments in the market as sentiment falls later, but this adjustment does not mean the end of the bull market. judging from the current sentiment index position, the current market sentiment at the end of september is equivalent to march 5, 2019 or july 7, 2020 in history.
guojin securities: what to buy during the rebound and the second choice for counterattack is consumption
in "significant "easy money" guided the start of a phased rebound: key recommendations for mid-cap growth > consumption - october strategy", china national finance strategy pointed out that this round of market conditions may be a "rebound" rather than a "reversal", and the duration is about one quarter, that is, it will gradually end after the "hard landing" in the united states is confirmed. corresponding to the style level, a series of policies such as interest rate cuts are aimed at improving residents' balance sheets and promoting a rebound in credit expectations. this will extend to two important investment directions: (1) a rebound in credit will drive a rebound in residents' consumption expectations; (2) at the same time, , will also stimulate the market's "willingness to spend money" and guide changes in market expectations. with the addition of 500 billion swaps and 300 billion repurchases, the increase in market incremental funds will focus on the growth direction! encouraging increased leverage will inevitably push up the market's upward slope and accelerate the realization of valuation restoration.
the key recommendations remain: "growth > consumption" with the following characteristics: small and mid-cap + oversold + low valuation + upward revision of dividend rate. in particular, growth will also benefit from the largest proportion of repurchase plans. industry configuration in october: recommendations: (1) bottom position configuration: gold + innovative drugs; (2) preferred growth for counterattack: 1. tmt, especially electronics and computers; 2. national defense and military industry; 3. medicine and biology, etc. (3) counterattack secondary consumption: 1. liquor; 2. social services; 3. medical beauty; 4. light industry.
huajin securities: the rapid rise of a-shares has not shown a peak sign
huajin securities analysis said that the rapid rise in a-shares has not yet reached a peak mark, and the rise is likely to continue after the holiday. on the one hand, there are currently no signs of policy tightening or redirection. first, in terms of economic policy, there is a high probability that it will be difficult to change in the short to medium term, and fiscal policy and other policies may instead make further efforts. second, in terms of capital market policies, the short term is likely to be mainly boosting and positive. in terms of allocation, the logic of short-term supplementary growth continues to prevail, and we can continue to focus on technology growth, core assets and financial real estate after the holiday.
zheshang securities: unprecedented policy efforts have improved market bias, and the market’s growth style is expected to return
zheshang securities research report stated that entering october, economic support policies were unprecedentedly strong, and aggregate policies were introduced beyond expectations. the signals of stabilizing the economy, stabilizing the market, and stabilizing expectations were clear, reversing the market's expectations of economic fundamentals. the a500 etf, which overweights the growth style, has entered the position building period and is expected to contribute incremental funds to the growth style. on the whole, with the further introduction of policy details, risk appetite is expected to continue to improve. the current trading concentration of the growth style of the market is at a relatively low level, and it is expected that the growth style of the market is expected to usher in a valuation recovery.
(this article comes from china business news)
