deng lijun of huajin securities: the rapid rise of a-shares has not shown a peak sign
2024-10-06
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
looking forward to the a-share market after the national day holiday, on october 6, deng lijun, chief strategist of huajin securities, said that the rapid rise in a-share market has not yet reached a peak mark, and the rise after the holiday is likely to continue.
deng lijun pointed out that the rapid rise in a-shares has not yet reached a peak, and the short-term rise is likely to continue. on the one hand, there are currently no signs of policy tightening or redirection. first, in terms of economic policy, there is a high probability that it will be difficult to change in the short to medium term, and fiscal policy and other policies may instead make further efforts. second, in terms of capital market policies, it is likely that the short-term policy will still be based on boosting and positivity.
"financing and retail capital inflows were still low during the rapid uptick at the end of september, and otc capital allocation has not yet seen a resurgence. regulatory restrictions and crackdowns on stock market capital entry may be difficult to achieve in the short term." deng lijun said.
on the other hand, deng lijun analyzed that the current capital inflow has not yet reached its extreme. first, the scale of inflows of financing, foreign capital and other funds is still relatively small. second, the increase in turnover rate or transaction volume has not yet reached the extreme. first of all, when the rapid rise peaks, the turnover rate is mostly at an extremely high level of 5% to 20%, and the turnover increases by as much as 2 to 10 times. secondly, the current turnover rate of all a-shares is only about 4%, and the daily turnover may reach 5 trillion to 10 trillion or even higher before there is a risk of peaking.
"significant policy tightening and extreme turnover rates are signs that the short-term rapid rise has peaked. for example, significant policy tightening, such as the acceleration of stock issuance in 1995, the '12 gold medals' in 1996, and the stamp duty increase to 5 in 1997 ‰, the state-owned shares were reduced in 1999, the stamp tax was raised to 3‰ in 2007, and large and small non-owned shares were reduced, the ipo was restarted in july 2009, and the china securities regulatory commission cleaned up over-the-counter capital allocation in june 2015. when the turnover rate peaked, most of them were. reaching an extremely high level of about 5% to 20%," deng lijun said.
looking forward to the market outlook, deng lijun said that the post-holiday rise is likely to continue, and there may be fluctuations, but it is difficult to reach a peak. first, expectations for economic and earnings recovery after the holiday may rise. first, expectations for economic recovery have increased. travel consumption during the national day holiday has exceeded expectations. after the real estate policy was relaxed, the weekly real estate sales growth rate in first-tier cities rebounded significantly year-on-year. second, the third quarterly report forecast after the holiday has begun to be released, and the rebound in a-share profits may continue.
"secondly, in terms of liquidity, there may be further inflows of stock market capital after the holiday. first, the us manufacturing pmi and non-farm employment data were better in september, and expectations for an interest rate cut in november have declined, but domestic liquidity after the holiday is likely to remain seasonal. second, chinese assets surge during the holidays, post-holiday financing and foreign capital inflows may accelerate, and new funds may also rebound significantly," deng lijun pointed out.
deng lijun further pointed out that in terms of risk appetite, it may continue to rise after the holiday. first, although overseas geopolitical conflicts escalated during the national day holiday, they had little impact on a-shares after the holiday. second, hong kong stocks and chinese concept stocks surged during the holidays, and there are still many people waiting to open accounts. a-share risk appetite may continue to rise after the holiday.
in terms of allocation, deng lijun believes that the logic of short-term supplementary growth will continue to prevail, and we can continue to focus on technology growth, core assets and financial real estate after the holiday.
"in terms of industry, it is recommended that investors pay attention to three main lines after the holiday: first, the policy and industry trends are upward, and computers, media, film and television and games, electronic chips, communications, etc. may make up for the increase; second, benefiting from the policy to improve economic recovery expectations, core assets that make up for the increase and foreign capital inflows, such as consumption, electronics, medicine, etc.; third, securities firms that benefit from rising policies and sentiment, including internet finance, real estate, etc.," deng lijun said.
tian zhongfang, senior reporter at the paper
(this article is from the paper. for more original information, please download the “the paper” app)
