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starting from last tuesday, september 24, the a-share market has swept away the haze of decline for more than three years, and started to rise crazily with a devastating trend, like a wild horse running wild, out of control.

the increase has made old investors panic, the increase has made new investors busy opening accounts, the increase has made brokerage firms work overtime 24/7, and the increase has made people feel a little melancholy while traveling during the national day.

it is trivial to raise the daily limit of 1,000 stocks, or even the collective daily limit of the sector, the index rose by more than 10%, and the trading volume hit a record high of 2.6 trillion. the rise in a-shares was not enough. during the national day a-share market break, hong kong stocks surged in relays, often rising several times. although i am still in a deep trap and haven't gotten out of it yet, i feel like i'm out of luck. i'm afraid that if i enter the market a second too late, i won't be able to catch this incredible wealth.

that’s probably what the picture below means.

the 10% increase is no longer enough. some people are starting to look for 20% targets, and some are even eyeing the 30% beijing stock exchange. if stock index futures had not always had a bad reputation, they would probably have to speculate in stock index futures with 10 times leverage.

the above is the current market situation in just over a week. apart from crazy, i can’t think of any other words to describe it. i was in a daze. even many phenomena unique to the end of the bull market appeared in advance, such as:

1. parents, classmates, relatives and other people who have never invested began to ask me about stocks.

2. in hotels, subways, scenic spots, and taxis, everyone is talking about stocks.

3. start talking about stocks in major non-investment groups, such as community groups and parent groups.

4. brokerage apps have started to block orders, and you have to queue up to make an appointment to open an account.

5. laymen began to recommend stocks to me (i have no friends who recommend stocks, so practitioners please be cautious)

faced with these phenomena, i feel a little bit panicked...

recently, many people have been mentioning that this market is somewhat similar to the "519 market." many new and semi-new investors don't even know what the "519 market" is. even if they have heard of it, they don't know the specific details.

it is said that reading history can make you wise. today, instead of talking about popular science, i will take you to recall the history of the "519 market", so that everyone can explore the essence of this round of market from history.

the "519 market" refers to a sudden surge in the a-share market on may 19, 1999. the shanghai composite index rose from a low of 1047.83 points to a new high of 1756.18 points. in just 33 trading days, the increase was as high as 67.6%. people feel dizzy.

does the market suddenly start without warning? in fact, it is not. there are three important reasons:

first, regulatory agencies have introduced relevant support policies;

on may 16, 1999, the state council approved a number of policy opinions on further regulating and promoting the development of the securities market, including reforming the stock issuance system, gradually solving legal financing channels for securities companies, expanding the pilot scale of securities investment funds, and allowing some there are six main policy recommendations, including the issuance of financing bonds by qualified securities companies, invigorating the b-share market, and allowing some b-share and h-share companies to conduct pilot stock buybacks, which are commonly referred to as"six policies to revitalize the market."

second, the central bank announced an interest rate cut on june 10, with deposit rates falling by an average of 1%. this is the seventh interest rate cut in my country since 1996.

third, the head of the regulatory agency and the official media gave speeches;

in a speech delivered on june 14, chen yaoxian, then vice chairman of the china securities regulatory commission, mentioned that "the current upward trend in the stock market is a recovery and a manifestation of market growth since the securities market was rectified and standardized." on june 15, the people's daily published a front-page commentator's article entitled "strengthen confidence and standardize development," affirming the role and status of the securities market and making a favorable comment on the current market situation. on june 22, zhou zhengqing, then chairman of the china securities regulatory commission, pointed out that what our country is currently facing is not only a round of market conditions, but also a major turning point in china's securities market.

a variety of factors resonated to jointly promote this market.

on june 30, the shanghai composite index rose to 1,756.18 points intraday. on july 1, the "securities law of the people's republic of china" was officially implemented. the shanghai stock market plummeted 128 points, a decrease of 7.6%, announcing the phased end of the "519 market."

but then on september 8, 1999, the china securities regulatory commission issued the "notice on issues concerning the allotment of stocks by legal persons", allowing stock accounts opened by "three types of enterprises" (state-owned enterprises, state-controlled enterprises and listed companies) to use it can also be used to allocate stocks and invest in secondary market stocks. on october 25, 1999, the state council approved insurance companies to purchase securities investment funds and indirectly enter the securities market.

these two measures brought a large amount of new funds into the market, which kept pushing the index up, and reached a record high of 2245.44 on june 14, 2001. since then, the "519 market" that started on may 19, 1999 has truly ended, lasting 2 years and 1 month.

subsequently, a-shares entered the longest bear market in history, falling to 998.23 points on june 6, 2005. it was a four-year super bear market, and many securities companies failed to survive it. this round of bear market, bankruptcy and reorganization, and withdrawal from the stage of history are, of course, something for another time.

there is another detail worth recalling. in 1998, before the launch of the 519 market, the national audit office conducted a large-scale audit of securities companies. the audit results showed that securities companies generally absorbed social funds in violation of regulations, misappropriated customer deposits, and engaged in illegal activities in the same industry. lending activities involve an amount of more than 100 billion. at that time, the national audit office audited 88 securities companies, and the result was that none of them misappropriated customer deposits.

is this very similar to the audits initiated by the national audit office on some securities firms and fund companies before the market started? i don’t know whether it is a coincidence or not. i am just stating this fact to help everyone recall history.

economists at the time also had different views, saying that china's stock market was going to have problems, a blowout, and overheating. he also specifically pointed out that the document approved by the state council was suspected of intervening in the stock market. however, zhou zhengqing, then chairman of the china securities regulatory commission, recalled in an interview a few years later:

the main starting point is to support further economic development, while at the same time caring for investors. shareholders have been trapped. as the china securities regulatory commission and as leaders, we must be concerned about this issue. this is a matter of public interest. the majority of investors come to invest to support your country's construction. whoever invests is targeted by you. what do you call this a capital market?

this market situation is good for both the country and investors. stocks can continue to be issued, investors’ trapped funds begin to be revitalized, and their wealth increases again.

when we engage in capital markets, we must not only care about how much funds can be raised through the capital market to support economic development, but we must also care about reasonable returns for investors. it is abnormal for the vast majority of investors to be trapped, which shows that we have made mistakes in our work. as the china securities regulatory commission, we should take care of it. we cannot ignore it, cannot do anything about it, and cannot do nothing.

the above content is from "interviews with capital figures", hainan publishing house, 2006 edition.

the "519 quote" was launched in a special historical period, and it has also completed its own special historical mission. at that time, the supervision was cleaning up and rectifying the securities trading center and the trust industry, which faced great uncertainty and financial risks. such a market situation avoided the risk of runs during the rectification process, solved many bad debts, and ensured this the smooth transition of market consolidation allowed hundreds of trust companies to finally make a soft landing and turned into a group of new securities companies and fund companies.

however, this time the market situation has not significantly improved the performance of listed companies, it has also brought about the "three highs and one low" phenomenon of high index, high stock price, high price-earnings ratio, and low performance, which has laid hidden safety risks for future declines. .

the above is a historical review of the "519 market". there are indeed high similarities between the "519 market" and this market: both have national policy support, both have liquidity support, and both have "increased people's minds" under the continued downturn. there is a general background of industry changes. however, each market situation has its own uniqueness in hindsight. no two markets are exactly the same, and past performance cannot predict the future.

as for how this market will perform in the future, probably no one can accurately predict it. we can only go with the trend and watch as we go. but in any case, investors should pay attention to the risks. making money through investment is always a small probability event.it doesn’t matter how much you earn in the process, it’s how much you take away with you in the end that matters. friends from financial institutions, don’t be carried away by the market situation. you must pay attention to compliance during the business development process.

finally, i wish all readers a prosperous investment and a happy life.