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according to cctv news citing israeli media reports, at around 7:30 pm local time on october 1, israel detected about 180 ballistic missiles launched by iran towards it, and air defense sirens were sounded in tel aviv, rafah and other places. iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps issued a statement on the evening of the 1st, saying that regarding the scale and target of this missile strike, the iranian revolutionary guards aviation force launched ballistic missiles at important targets in israel. the main targets of the attack were three military targets in the tel aviv area.

both sides disagree on the effectiveness of the missile attack. iran claimed that 200 medium-range ballistic missiles were launched in this operation. iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps later claimed that more than 90% of them hit preset targets and successfully hit military strategic centers on israeli territory, destroying some israeli air force and radar bases and being attacked. the israeli military stated that the air defense systems of israel and the united states operate effectively and cooperate closely in detection and interception. the israeli air force was not damaged in the attack and its aircraft, air defense systems and air traffic control systems were functioning normally.

currently, videos circulating on the internet show that some missiles can clearly be seen landing on military bases near israeli towns. israel has banned its residents from posting videos and pictures of iranian missile hits, saying that any violations will be arrested and sentenced. it can be inferred from this that iran's ballistic missile strikes were relatively successful.

iran used the ghadr medium-range ballistic missile in this missile attack.

iran has many options in its intermediate-range ballistic missile arsenal

iran and israel are not adjacent to each other, and the closest point between the two countries is nearly 1,000 kilometers away. internationally, ballistic missiles with a range of 1,000 to 3,000 kilometers are usually called medium-range missiles. there are currently nine medium-range missiles in iran's arsenal that can reach israel, with ranges ranging from 1,400 to 2,500 kilometers, including "mudshi", "haibar", "imad", "meteor-3", "ghadr", "khaybar shaikan", "martyr qasim", "pavi" and "fatah" hypersonic missiles, except for "pavi" which is a cruise missile, the others are all ballistic missiles.

the mudrock missile is a two-stage solid propellant medium-range ballistic missile developed by iran. this type of missile was developed in the late 1990s. the missile is 18 meters long, has a diameter of 1.25 meters, a launch weight of 23.6 tons, and a warhead weight of 700 kilograms; the "haibar" missile is also called "khorramshahr-4" "(khorramshahr-4) is a medium-range ballistic missile of iran's fourth-generation "khorramshahr" missile series. the missile can carry a 1,500 kilogram warhead; the "imad" missile has a range of about 1,700 kilometers and is effective. with a payload capacity of approximately 750 kilograms, it is an improved version of the meteor-3 missile and is iran's first precision-guided long-range surface-to-surface ballistic missile. it is equipped with a maneuverable reentry warhead, and its accuracy can be improved to within 500 meters from the target.

"meteor-3" is a medium-range liquid-fuel road-mobile ballistic missile developed by iran. when equipped with a 1,000 kilogram payload, the range is 1,200 kilometers, and when the payload is lighter, the range is 2,000 kilometers; "ghadr-110" the missile is an improved version of the "meteor-3a". it is generally believed that its first stage uses a liquid fuel engine and the second stage uses solid fuel. "gardel-110" has three subtypes, "gardel" s has a range of 1,350 kilometers, "gardel" h has a range of 1,650 kilometers, and "gardel" f has a range of 1,950 kilometers. the "ghadr"-110 series missiles carry warheads ranging in weight from 650 kilograms to 1,000 kilograms.

"fatah-2" is a hypersonic missile composed of a hypersonic glide vehicle and a booster, with a range of 1,500 to 1,800 kilometers. the missile consists of two parts, the first part is the solid fuel booster and the second part is the gliding warhead. unlike other boost-glide hypersonic missiles, the missile's glide warhead contains a liquid-fuel rocket motor. the overall shape of the "fatah-2" gliding warhead is similar to that of the boeing x-51 aircraft. the difference is that its air inlet is eliminated and a rocket engine is used instead of a ramjet engine; the "martyr qasim" missile has a range of 1,400 kilometers, the warhead weighs 500 kilograms and was first revealed on august 20, 2020. the missile was once considered a new generation of "fatah-110" missile, weighing 7 tons, 11 meters long, and with a maximum speed of mach 12.

judging from the available information, the iranian missile attack on israel used medium-range missiles such as "ghadr" h, "meteor" -3 and "fatah" hypersonic missiles, and adopted missile salvo tactics. through saturation attacks to improve penetration capabilities, facts have also proved that the israeli and american anti-missile systems only intercepted a small number of incoming missiles. in the face of the "missile rain", the anti-missile systems were quickly "swamped" and fell into a state of being overwhelmed.

the "conqueror" hypersonic missile warhead and missile body can be separated, and the warhead is equipped with an engine and has certain maneuverability.

the base of f-35 fighter jets came under intensive attack

bagheri, chief of staff of the iranian armed forces, disclosed on the 2nd the main targets of the missile attack on israel, including the israeli intelligence agency base in tel aviv, turnov air force base and nevadim air base, and the tank assembly center , troop transport ships, etc. according to iranian media reports, the nevatim air force base located in the negev desert in southern israel was hit by an iranian missile on the 1st, and two squadrons of israeli f-35 fighter jets were completely destroyed. at a time when israel is sharpening its knives against lebanon and its northern expedition to lebanon, iran's actions have the intention of hindering the israeli military's offensive operations and coordinating hezbollah.

historically, iran has been very experienced in missile-focused campaign-level raids and "city siege warfare." the most recent one was on april 14 this year, when iran launched approximately 120 ballistic missiles and 170 suicide drones at israel. man-machine (loitering bombs) and more than 30 cruise missiles. according to various sources, the weapons used by iran in this missile attack were only medium-range ballistic missiles. this is different from april this year, when suicide drones and cruise missiles were involved. therefore, iran's attack on israel with 200 medium-range ballistic missiles can be regarded as the largest and most concentrated single attack on military targets using land-based medium-range ballistic missiles in the history of world wars.

nevatim air base is israel's largest air base.

the same missile "city attack" was also carried out on a large scale by iran and iraq during the iran-iraq war. however, since the two countries share a border, the missiles launched at each other are basically short-range ballistic missiles. because during the iran-iraq war, although both iran and iraq were equipped with the most advanced tactical aircraft in the world at the time, both sides sent aircraft to bomb each other's cities. however, due to the low level of pilots of both air forces and the relatively good air defense of each other, the aircraft of both sides suffered heavy losses in the air strikes. eventually, both sides switched to directly attacking each other's cities with ballistic missiles.

the total weight of conventional high-explosive warheads of the "scud" ballistic missiles obtained by iran and iraq through various channels reaches 1 ton, and the internal charge is as high as 800 kilograms. when such a heavy warhead hits the ground at a speed of mach 4.5, it is enough to destroy a 10-story building, and its killing radius can reach 150 meters. if used intensively, it is enough to plunge the other country into temporary chaos or even paralysis. moreover, ballistic missiles are not controlled by pilots, so there is no need to worry about being shot down.

at the beginning of the iran-iraq war in 1983, iran used its "scud" missiles to launch air strikes on baghdad, the capital of iraq, which put great pressure on iraq. due to the long and narrow territory of iraq, the range of missiles is not enough to reach tehran. in desperation, the iraqis had no choice but to take matters into their own hands, dismantling the three missiles, cutting the fuel tanks, and then welding them together again. using three "scuds" to make two larger missiles can increase the fuel carrying capacity by about 1 ton and reduce the warhead to 190 kilograms. in this way, the "scud" missiles have a range of more than 700 kilometers and can effectively attack iran. the capital. this improved missile was named "hussein" by the iraqis.

judging from the existing satellite photos, multiple buildings at the nevatim air base were blown up by missiles.

on february 27, 1988, after long preparations, iraq suddenly launched a "missile attack" against iran. in about two months from february 27 to april 21, iraq launched a total of 189 "hussein" missiles at iran, but iran only fired back 77 missiles due to lack of preparation. according to post-war statistics, 135 of iraq's 189 ballistic missiles hit tehran, the capital of iran, and the rest hit tabriz, shiraz, esfahan and other major iranian cities. however, this only killed more than 1,000 iranian civilians and injured about 10,000 others. it can be seen that the lethality of ballistic missiles in city siege warfare is not even as good as traditional howitzers.

however, due to the long range and high speed of ballistic missiles, the psychological shock they bring to civilians far exceeds the actual destructive power. according to iranian statistics after the event, more than 10 million people fled the cities in the six largest cities in iran, including the capital tehran. almost all major cities in iran were paralyzed, the production of industrial and mining enterprises was interrupted, and municipal hospitals, schools, and shopping malls were almost all service industries have shut down, and even the cleaners on the streets of the capital have left the city to seek refuge. serious psychological panic had a great impact on iran's war economic system, and also prompted iran and iraq to end the long iran-iraq war.

concentrated missile raids have multiple effects

combined with iran's two large-scale ballistic missile attacks on israeli military targets this year and the "missile attack on cities" during the iran-iraq war nearly 40 years ago, there are still many areas worthy of our careful study.

first, concentrate ballistic missiles that are sufficient to hit the opponent's high-value civilian and military targets, and use them with high intensity and density to block the opponent's air defense channels and prevent them from intercepting incoming missiles. this can effectively threaten high-value targets in deep areas of the enemy's country and seriously weaken command, communication, reconnaissance, surveillance and war mobilization capabilities, thereby achieving strategic goals.

saturation strikes are still an important means to increase the probability of penetration. the picture shows iranian missiles in intensive penetration.

second, the greatest power of ballistic missiles is psychological deterrence. people who have seen intensive missile attacks are very likely to be wary of such long-range weapons without warning, and will cause panic, which may eventually lead to the psychological collapse of the people who have been in peace for a long time. the will to fight breaks down.

third, the cost of responding to incoming ballistic missiles is huge. take israel’s interception cost on april 14 this year as an example. israel spent us$1.33 billion, including the consumption of missile weapons and the cost of dispatching f-35 fighter jets. for israel, burning so much money in a few hours has a serious impact on its finances. the total purchase cost of the f-35 fleet is only us$3 billion. the consumption of the interception operation was equivalent to half of the f-35s being destroyed. if iran fights like this a few more times, israel's finances may not be able to withstand it.

fourth, taking the enemy by surprise is always the essence of combat. it is currently speculated that iran has about 3,000-4,000 ballistic missiles in its missile arsenal, and it is speculated that 500-600 of them are medium-range ballistic missiles that can reach israeli soil. the military operations on april 14 and this time have consumed nearly 3,000 ballistic missiles. 400, these two times were only targeted at israeli military targets. once israel continues to escalate its military actions in this conflict, it is not impossible for iran's remaining missiles to fall into major israeli cities. the iran-iraq war, a border war that lasted for eight years with no end in sight, ended abruptly with the exchange of more than 200 missiles, and may happen again.