after iran attacked israel from its own territory for the second time, what direction will the situation in the middle east take?
2024-10-04
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on the evening of october 1, iran launched more than 180 ballistic missiles from its territory towards israel. for a time, "fireballs" streaked across the night skies of many middle eastern countries and regions. people in the region were worried that tensions would continue to escalate.
according to xinhua news agency, idf spokesman hagari said that most of the incoming missiles were intercepted by the defense alliance led by israel and the united states. a small number of missiles hit central israel and some hit southern israel.
israel threatened retaliation.
niu song, a researcher at the institute of middle east studies at shanghai international studies university, told china business news that israel has maintained initiative in the timing and methods of attacking iran, but an all-out war with iran does not currently seem to be in line with israel's actual interests. at present, israel the focus of the war remains on the north-south border areas.
he further analyzed that iran publicly sent a signal to the outside world before launching the attack, which showed its unwillingness to escalate confrontation.
iran's 'one-off' attack
iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps issued a statement on the 1st saying that the missile attack on israel was in response to the "martyrdom of hamas leader haniyeh, lebanese hezbollah leader nasrallah, and iran's senior islamic revolutionary guard corps general nil forushan" ". iran used fatah hypersonic missiles for the first time in the attack.
iranian president pezhiziyan stated on the 1st that iran's missile attack was a decisive response to israel's "aggression". iran does not seek war but resolutely resists any threats. he also said, "this is only part of our strength. do not fight with iran." a conflict occurs."
iran also warned israel's allies, saying that if the united states and other israeli allies help israel retaliate, its troops and interests in the middle east will be "severely hit" by iran. the iranian armed forces general staff stated in a statement that iran has no intention of going to war with israel, but will exercise its right to self-defense.
iranian foreign minister araghchi posted on social media on the 2nd that iran's military operations have ended unless israel decides to take further retaliatory actions. if israel takes retaliatory actions, iran's response will be more "violent and powerful."
iran proactively stated that the military operation has ended, which is similar to iran's first direct attack on israel from its homeland in april this year, indicating that this was a "one-time" attack and did not seek to escalate the conflict.
on april 14, iran issued a statement after launching an attack on israel, saying that drones and other drones would arrive within a few hours, giving an early warning; and then iran stated through its permanent mission to the united nations that the attack "can be regarded as it’s over”. however, the scale of this attack is slightly larger than that in april. compared with about 180 ballistic missiles this time, the scale in april was 110 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles.
neuson told china business news that israel is currently increasing its "counterattack" against hamas, and it has also stepped up its crackdowns against hezbollah in lebanon, which actively supports hamas, as never before, especially against these organizations. the leaders' serial "beheading" actions have put iran under pressure.
he further analyzed that iran, as the core of the "arc of resistance", cannot remain indifferent at this time. it must express something to israel, otherwise it will greatly shake the unity within the "arc of resistance" and iran's prestige.
the "arc of resistance", also known as the "axis of resistance," is a regional political and military force with iran as its core and syria, lebanese hezbollah, iraqi shia militias, yemen's houthi armed forces, and hamas as its main members.
israel's response
on the 1st, the israeli army began to conduct "limited, localized and targeted ground strikes" against hezbollah targets in southern lebanon. on the evening of the same day, iran launched a large-scale missile attack on military targets in israel. israeli prime minister netanyahu later responded, "iran made a big mistake and will pay the price for it."
at the same time, an anonymous israeli official stated that israel will carry out "major retaliation" against iran "within days" and may attack "oil fields and other strategic locations in iran." the report said that if iran attacks israel again after israel takes retaliatory actions, israel will consider "all options", including attacking iran's nuclear facilities.
however, u.s. president biden stated on the 2nd that the united states does not support israel's strike on iran's nuclear facilities as part of retaliation for iran's missile attack on israel. the united states will communicate with israel on what retaliatory measures israel will take.
after israel threatened to target iran's nuclear facilities, eslami, chairman of the atomic energy organization of iran, said on the 2nd that iran's armed forces are ready to respond to israel's attack on iran's nuclear facilities.
after iran launched an attack on israel in april, israel retaliated against iran five days later on april 19. locations such as isfahan international airport and iran's shekari air force base were affected, but there was no attack on iran's nuclear facilities. the scope of israel's attack was not large, and the two sides did not form a direct confrontation situation.
neuson told china business news that the conflicts between israel and iran are complicated and have been in a long-term game and confrontation since the islamic revolution in iran in 1979. even though there were occasional gunfire incidents between the two sides and "performative" military confrontations occurred, the logic of maintaining a mainly indirect confrontation method of struggle has not fundamentally changed.
(this article comes from china business news)
