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late at night on the first day when the chinese people celebrated national day, iran launched a large-scale ballistic missile attack on israel. the missile raid this time was even louder than the one in april. the "full missile lineup" penetration efficiency was extremely high, directly smashing through the three layers of defense of the us and israeli forces.

(air defense sirens sound across israel)

prior to this iranian missile attack, the united states had received intelligence, and even disclosed it to the media, that iran would attack three israeli air bases and the headquarters of the israeli intelligence agency mossad. even so, iran's "missile rain" caught the israeli military by surprise.

idf spokesman hagari claimed after the attack that iran launched "more than 180" ballistic missiles toward israel, "most of which were intercepted by the defense alliance led by israel and the united states." a small number of missiles hit central and southern israel. and "israeli's losses are not significant," with only a few soldiers killed so far.

(videos of iranian missile attacks on israel are already everywhere on the internet)

clearly the israelis were lying. now is the era of the internet and smartphones. almost at the same time as the attack, a large number of live videos shot by mobile phones appeared on the internet. it is no longer possible for the israeli authorities to let the false information they release cover the sky.

netizens from all over the world have conducted analysis and statistics based on live videos and maps. the current more reliable conclusions are as follows:

(israel’s nevatim air force base suffered the largest number of missiles)

according to statistics based on the flames of missile warheads hitting the ground and exploding, iran has launched approximately more than 100 ballistic missiles. the reason why israel found "more than 180 missiles" and foreign and chinese media reported a large number of "about 200 missiles" is probably because the missile separated from the propeller at the end, and israeli radar regarded these separated propellers as separate missiles. the number of warheads was thus doubled.

judging from the explosions and flames that appeared in the air, the missile interception systems of israel and the united states failed to intercept most of the missiles. at least fifty or sixty missiles hit ground targets, which means that only about twenty or thirty missiles were intercepted. there may also be some missiles that did not enter the terminal trajectory due to malfunctions.

(israel’s tel nov air force base was also hit by several missiles and burst into flames)

iran's targets are indeed as reported in advance, including mossad facilities near tel aviv, nevatim air force base, tel nov air force base, etc.

among them, the nevatim air force base, where f-35 fighter jets are stationed, suffered the most missiles, with at least more than 30 hits, and at least a few hits at other facilities. some missiles fell on civilian facilities. it may be that the missiles malfunctioned. it is also possible that the falling propulsion section hit a residential area.

regarding the effect of this attack, iran released news that it "destroyed more than 20 f-35 fighter jets." however, israel denied this, saying that all f-35 fighter jets were "intact." but israeli authorities have begun to block the news, claiming that anyone who uploads photos or videos of attacked military facilities online will be arrested.

western media and commercial imaging satellite companies also had a tacit understanding and did not immediately release satellite photos of israeli military facilities taken after the attack.

(israeli air force f-35 fighter jets deployed at nevatim air base)

therefore, israel's true losses will depend on the dispatch of the israeli air force's f-35 fighter jets and other fighter jets in the next few days, whether it can maintain the intensity of its air strikes on lebanon, and whether it can still carry out air strikes on iran.

israeli and american missile defense systems performed poorly this time. compared with the time in april, iran did not launch cheaper long-range suicide drones and cruise missiles. these two weapons are easier to intercept. the united states and israel were able to announce an interception rate of 99% to a large extent because they were unable to intercept. man-machine and cruise missiles make up the number.

the iranian revolutionary guards have obviously done their homework and selectively used ballistic missiles with a higher probability of penetration. for the medium-range ballistic missiles launched by iran, the blown-up "iron dome" air defense system is useless because they can only deal with rockets and artillery shells with terminal speeds one or two times the speed of sound.

(the wreckage of the propulsion stage of the fatah solid ballistic missile after it fell)

the main interceptors this time are the "patriot" pac-3 air defense system deployed by israel, the "david's sling" medium-range air defense system, the "arrow-2/3" missile interception system, as well as the united states sailing in nearby waters. a "standard-3" anti-missile interceptor launched by a warship.

if you include the "patriot" and "thaad" air and missile defense systems deployed in saudi arabia and jordan, the u.s. and israel's defense system can be said to have three layers inside and three outside. however, it was still penetrated by the "rain of missiles" .

these air defense and missile defense systems were once touted as "artifacts" by the western media. however, they were exposed when they encountered a missile raid by iran, a regional power at best. faced with a saturation attack from more than a hundred medium-range ballistic missiles, the interception probability of these systems is only about 20%-30%, which is really pitifully low.

(the u.s. missile defense system performed poorly this time. are the taiwanese authorities feeling cold?)

faced with such a result, i wonder if the taiwan authorities in east asia will feel cold. because their "patriot" series of air defense systems and their own developed "tiangong" series of air defense missiles have no advantages over the us and israeli defense systems, and their defense depth is shallower and their early warning time is shorter. if faced with a large-scale missile attack, the performance will definitely be worse.

is the strength of the people's liberation army comparable to that of the iranian revolutionary guards? the people's liberation army has at least dozens of times the firepower covering taiwan island. can they stop it? all the boasting was punctured by iran’s attack on israel.

iran's large-scale medium-range ballistic missile attack on israel may be the largest ballistic missile attack since the first gulf war in 1990. even the stronger russia usually uses a variety of weapons in large-scale air strikes against ukraine, including suicide drones, cruise missiles, etc. ballistic missiles are generally not used in large numbers.

(the degree of damage to the israeli air force has received the most attention)

unable to bear it, iran took action, and now the ball has been kicked to israel's side. it is impossible for israel not to retaliate against iran. the key depends on how it retaliates. if the retaliation is too severe and causes iran to participate in the war on a large scale, that is what the united states does not want to see. the next few days will be key to the direction of the situation in the middle east.