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iran's attack on israel has heightened concerns about oil supplies, but analysts believe the incident is unlikely to cause a long-term and serious disruption to global crude supplies.

on tuesday, oil prices rose more than 5% to reach an intraday high. later, market sentiment gradually calmed down and oil prices fell back from the intraday high.

u.s. west texas intermediate (wti) crude oil futures are now trading at $70.3 a barrel, with a maximum trading price of $71.94. brent crude oil futures prices closed at $74.53 a barrel, an increase of 2.6%.

analysts believe that the possibility of iran continuing to retaliate is very small, so israel's response will determine the trend of oil prices.

what happened?

according to xinhua news agency, iranian state television reported on the 1st that iran launched multiple missiles towards israel. later, according to cctv news, salami, commander of iran’s islamic revolutionary guard corps, said that in the operation on the evening of october 1, iran launched 200 missiles at israel.

according to cctv international news, iranian foreign minister araghchi posted a message on social media in the early morning of october 2, local time, warning israel not to take retaliatory actions in response to iran’s missile attacks. araghchi said that iran "exercised self-defense" in accordance with article 51 of the united nations charter on the evening of the 1st. this military action was taken after iran maintained great restraint in the past two months and left space for the ceasefire in gaza. .araghchi stressed that iran's military operations have ended unlessisraeldecided to take further retaliatory action. if israel takes retaliatory actions, iran's response will be more "violent and powerful."

afterwards, idf spokesman hagari issued a statement saying,there is no longer a threat from iran, suggesting the attacks are over.

in israel, according to cctv international news, late at night on october 1, local time, israeli prime minister netanyahu made a statement for the first time after iran launched missiles at israel: "iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay the price for it. "according to previous reports in the israeli media, when the iranian missiles struck, netanyahu was urgently convening a meeting of the israeli security cabinet in the bunker.

in april previously, according to xinhua news agency, israel airstriked the consular department building of the iranian embassy in syria, killing at least seven people. in retaliation, iran launched a large-scale missile attack on israel on the evening of april 13, local time.

in the long run, israel’s response will determine oil prices

geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and market concerns about oil supply have intensified. because the escalating geopolitical conflict may restrict the flow of iranian crude oil exports and push up global prices.

iran is one of the world's top ten oil producers. according to opec's monthly report, iran's oil production was 3.277 million barrels per day in august this year. oil markets estimate iran exports about half of that.

marketwatch said investors are worried that oil exports from the region will be further restricted or constrained. a major concern in escalating tensions between iran and israel is that "missiles or other military equipment will fly over other countries and collateral damage could draw other countries into the conflict."

but in the long run, israel's response will determine the direction of oil prices.

“for the conflict to have a material and lasting impact on markets, it would need to become a broader war and have a significant impact on the global economy by limiting oil supplies or raising shipping costs, which could upend the current rapid rate cuts in most developed markets cycle expectations." ballinger group foreign exchange market analyst kyle chapman wrote in a report issued before the iranian attack.

he added,neither side has a strong incentive to launch a "regional war that could trigger collapse."

bca chief strategist marko papic also believes that the possibility of iran continuing to retaliate is small and global financial markets are unlikely to be affected.however, oil prices may still trend higher:

"it's just not geopolitics, it's the global macro environment that has changed."