2024-10-02
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apple released two models, iphone 16 and iphone 16 pro, last month, and agencies had previously expected sales of these two devices to be quite good. speculation shows an upward trend in part due to the addition of ai feature apple intelligence, but based on recent information, iphone 16 may see production cuts later this year.
barclays analysts have shared their investor notes, which reveal how the iphone 16 is performing and what to expect from the device in the coming quarters. analysts report that apple "may have just cut" iphone 16 production by 3 million units, with supply chain news coming from semiconductor component production.
barclays believes these checks suggest iphone 16 shipments will fall 15% year-on-year, but that last quarter's performance will be in line with previous expectations. iphone 16 shipments in september will reach 51 million units. the report also mentioned that the iphone 16 models took two more days to sell compared to the iphone 15 models.
according to the information provided by the barclays report, iphone 16 shipments in the last quarter of this year (october, november and december) appear to be facing huge risks. analysts also believe that iphone 16 shipments in december "look increasingly risky" as apple cuts iphone 16 production orders. analysts also believe that the lack of demand may be due to improper promotion strategies of apple intelligence mobile phones.
we believe the best-case scenario is for september quarter iphone sales to reach 51 million units (barclays and consensus september quarter iphone sales are both 51 million units), assuming channel sales are flat or better than last year due to increased sales days. good. we believe sales volume in july and august will be flat year-on-year.
apple intelligence is expected to launch later this month (probably the 15th), but the launch time is still uncertain, and its features will be divided into multiple updates. this may discourage some users from upgrading to the latest models at this stage. additionally, there is limited availability of apple intelligence or any artificial intelligence (ai) capabilities outside of the united states, which could lead to continued lower global shipments.
another reason why the december quarter may have taken a hit is the lack of innovation in design, as the "pro" models are almost identical to last year's iphone 15 pro models. how the real world reacts to these factors remains to be seen, as it's too early to tell whether the iphone 16 series will be a hit or a flop this year.