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databao's national day special plan "cow capturing guide"

policies are concentrated, funds are rushing into the market, major indexes are rising rapidly, and the strongest opportunity for a-shares in the near future has arrived. among them, the rise in financial stocks has led to an improvement in the overall market valuation. this article is the first article of the "bull capture guide" specially planned by databao for the national day - financial bulls, 50 financial stocks with high growth potential have surfaced.

with medium- and long-term capital entering the market and favorable policies, many records were recorded in the history of a-shares in the five trading days before the national day. the shanghai composite index rose by 21.37% in five trading days, and the shanghai composite index "violently" rose above 3,300 points. on the evening of september 30, cctv news reported on a-shares again with the title "a-shares surge, transaction volume exceeds 2.6 trillion yuan, new high". after four years, it is of great significance for cctv to report again.

recently, funds have been rushing into the market, and the a-share market has officially entered a technical bull market under the attention of all parties.

funds from all walks of life rush to enter the market

"bull market flag bearer" surges

on september 30, the trading volume of shanghai, shenzhen and beijing hit a record, and the "bull market flag bearer" brokerage sector hit the daily limit. "the number one brother in the securities industry"citic certificatethe trading volume of the securities exceeded 10.7 billion yuan that day, and it reached the daily limit for three consecutive trading days; the stock’s last daily limit was on july 28, 2023, and the three-day limit-up occurred in the 2015 bull market. "quanmao"oriental fortunethe transaction volume on that day exceeded 30.598 billion yuan, reaching the "20cm" daily limit for two consecutive trading days, continuing to hit a record high transaction volume.

from september 24th to september 27th, the shenwan securities industry rose by 39.03% cumulatively, ranking second in growth, only 0.85 percentage points lower than liquor. among a-share brokerage stocks, except those that are suspended from tradingguotai junanandhaitong securities, stocks in the sector rose by an average of nearly 38%, of whichguohai securities, tianfeng securitiesup more than 60%; diversified financial stocksminmetals capital, cofco capital, avic industrial finance, haide holdings, aijian groupboth rose by more than 50%.

funds enter the market through etfs. since september 24, as many as 263 etfs have increased by more than 30%, of which 3 financial technology and hong kong securities etfs have increased by more than 40%.

specifically, the financial technology etf (516860) has a range return rate of as high as 50.23%; at the end of the second quarter,oriental fortune, hang seng electronics, flush, compassall are among the top ten stocks.

according to data treasure statistics, in the past five trading days, financing funds have net purchased 16 financial stocks exceeding 100 million yuan, among whichoriental fortunethe highest, reaching 1.229 billion yuan,cnpc capital,citic securities, pacific, gf securities, china merchants securitiesandchina pacific insuranceboth exceeded 200 million yuan.

in addition, the main funds spent a total of 19.8 billion yuan to buy 60 financial stocks, of which net purchases wereoriental fortune4.79 billion yuan,ping an of china2.265 billion yuan,citic securities1.885 billion yuan.

three major logics build financial bulls

financial stocks (including banks and non-bank finance such as securities firms, insurance, and diversified finance) usually perform outstandingly in previous bull markets and have an important impact on the market.

in the bull market of 2005-2007 (june 6, 2005-october 16, 2007), the securities industry as a whole rose by 2073%, and diversified finance rose by 600.69%, which was a very strong performance.

against the background of the global financial crisis, in the bull market of 2008-2009 (october 28, 2008 - august 4, 2009), non-ferrous metals and gold sectors performed better, while financial stocks performed relatively average.

in the bull market from 2014 to 2015 (march 12, 2014 to june 12, 2015), financial stocks, especially brokerage stocks, once again became the focus of the market, benefiting from active market transactions and rapid business development. the rise in financial stocks has led to an increase in the overall market valuation.

in the early stages of the bull market, financial stocks have a more obvious impact on the market. in the big market that started in 2014, from july to december of that year, the non-bank financial sector surged 144.03%, ranking first. in the bull market from january to june 2019, non-bank finance surged 43.8%, second only to food and beverages.

western securities reviewed the trends of the brokerage sector in the past 10 years and found that brokerages tend to be more flexible in the early stages of market conditions, and changes in market trends are also expected to bring about a "davis double click" in the industry. in the early stages of a bull market, market trading activity increases significantly, and brokerage business income of securities firms will increase significantly. financial sectors such as banking and insurance will also follow suit. the rise in the financial sector played an important role in stabilizing the market index.

as for this potential bull market, some people believe that this period may be an "underestimated rise." if financial stocks can continue to rise in this round, it will have a positive impact on the market and enhance overall market confidence.

at present, the a-share rebound from the bottom has turned into a reversal, and the underlying logic of exiting the true bull market has the following three points:

first, the central government put forward clear requirements for the capital market at the critical time of the end of the third quarter, which is of great significance to stabilizing capital market expectations and maintaining overall economic and social stability.

second, policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, existing mortgage interest rates, and the creation of new monetary instruments to support the development of the stock market have been intensively implemented. the policy combination is very sincere and powerful in releasing liquidity.

third, the federal reserve’s precautionary interest rate cuts helped improve the liquidity of a-shares.

policy "gift package" catalysis

the top 50 financial bull stocks are released

recently, a series of capital market "gift packages" have been released intensively, providing policy support for the a-share market and bringing more opportunities to the financial sector.

tianfeng securities stated that this non-bank situation has at least three logical foundations:first, swap facilities have driven non-bank institutions to increase leverage, and fundamental expectations have improved.the central bank provides swap facilities for securities, funds, and insurance companies to enhance their ability to increase stock holdings. using highly liquid government bonds and other assets to exchange non-bank institutions' etf asset mortgages will lead to an increase in the liquidity and leverage capabilities of non-bank institutions, and fundamental expectations will be significantly improved.

second, the systemic importance and status of non-bank institutions in the financial system is expected to be enhanced.

third, the china securities regulatory commission has made it clear that companies with long-term net losses need to disclose their valuation improvement plans and make clear requirements for them.

on september 24, the china securities regulatory commission issued the "six mergers and acquisitions" to support listed securities companies in enhancing their core competitiveness through mergers, acquisitions and reorganizations and accelerating the construction of first-class investment banks. since the beginning of this year, there have been many eye-catching mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, such as "ping an + founder", "pacific + huachuang", "guolian + minsheng", "zheshang + guodu", "western + guorong", "guosen + vanhe" and "guotai junan + haitong securities" etc.

a research report from china development bank securities pointed out that it is expected that with the implementation of the three new policies on mergers and acquisitions, medium and long-term capital entry into the market, and market value management, the functionality of securities firms will be rapidly improved and their performance is expected to be significantly improved.

in addition, another branch of financial stocks, financial technology, is also worthy of attention. on september 25, the people's bank of china's monetary policy committee's regular meeting in the third quarter of 2024 (the 106th overall) pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate the formation of a diversified relay financial service system covering the entire life cycle of technology-based enterprises, to help build a technologically powerful country and achieve high-tech enterprises. horizontal science and technology are self-reliant and self-reliant.

kaiyuan securities stated that it is optimistic about the targets of high-beta elastic internet securities companies (financial it), optimistic about orient securities, which has outstanding wealth management advantages and still has a low valuation, and is optimistic about the main lines of mergers and acquisitions and leading securities companies with low valuations.

if the brokerage firm is bullish, the a-share market is bullish, and if the financial industry is bullish, the country is bullish. taking into account the policy dividend redemption period, databao selected 50 financial stocks (including financial technology stocks) whose average three-year performance growth is expected to increase based on the agency rating data for the next three years for the readers.

disclaimer: all information on databao does not constitute investment advice. there are risks in the stock market, so investment needs to be cautious.

editor: he yu

proofreading: gao yuan

data treasure

data bao (shujubao2015): securities times’ intelligent original new media.