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on the morning of october 1, local time in japan, japan’s kishida cabinet resigned collectively at an interim cabinet meeting. in the afternoon of the same day, the house of representatives and the senate of japan's provisional parliament will conduct a prime ministerial nomination election for the new president of the liberal democratic party, shigeru ishiba.

the day before, the personnel arrangements of the liberal democratic party were basically finalized. according to xinhua news agency, japanese media said that ishiba shigeru's personnel layout has the color of "rewards based on merit" and at the same time strives to promote unity within the party.

other public reports pointed out that shigeru ishiba is accelerating personnel arrangements within the party and cabinet with an eye on the upcoming house of representatives election. on september 30, ishiba said that he would dissolve the house of representatives on october 9 and hold the next house of representatives election on october 27.

on september 30, 2024 local time, tokyo, japan, the new president of the liberal democratic party, shigeru ishiba, attended a press conference at the headquarters of the liberal democratic party in tokyo. ishiba announced the dissolution of the house of representatives and the election schedule. picture/visual china

"reward based on merit"

on the afternoon of september 30, the liberal democratic party of japan held an interim general affairs meeting and confirmed that former prime minister yoshihide suga will serve as vice president, former defense minister itsunori onodera will serve as policy investigation chairman, and former environment minister shinjiro koizumi will serve as chairman of the election countermeasures committee. asosu is at odds with ishiba and supported late ally and former prime minister shinzo abe’s “disciple” takaichi sanae in the presidential election. however, he accepted ishiba’s invitation to serve as top adviser, a position that has not been created by the liberal democratic party in more than 30 years.

in terms of forming the cabinet, former defense minister takeshi iwaya will serve as foreign minister. gen nakatani, who has served twice as defense minister, will take up this position again. chief cabinet secretary hayashi masaru will remain in office and other personnel arrangements have been determined.

xinhua news agency quoted japanese media analysis as saying that takeshi iwaya became the minister of foreign affairs and served as the head of the election countermeasures headquarters of the ishiba camp during the presidential election. gen nakatani and others had good relations with ishiba and supported ishiba's yoshihide suga and the current prime minister in the election run-off vote. fumio kishida’s respective camps also have members of parliament occupying important positions. this reflects ishiba's consideration of "rewards based on merit", and inviting aso as the top adviser is intended to promote unity within the party.

the appointment of yoshihide suga as vice president of the liberal democratic party has particularly attracted outside attention. yoshihide suga not only publicly supports shinjiro koizumi, but also maintains good relations with the komeito party. some senior people believe that “this move may beshigeru ishibahe believes that his party's foundation is weak and hopes to use yoshihide suga's extensive network resources and political influence to strengthen his ruling foundation. "

the outside world has paid attention to shigeru ishiba's transformation. previously, he lacked sufficient allies and support within the party due to his maverick governing style and outspoken way of doing things.

ishiba shigeru has a weak foundation within the party, a phenomenon that can be traced back to the 1990s. in 1993, he left the party due to disagreements with the party's views on constitutional revision. in 1997, he returned to the liberal democratic party. in later recollections, ishiba said: "i seem to have a dna that wants to go against the majority." in 2009, as a cabinet member, he asked the then japanese prime minister taro aso to resign. this move made him in the japanese political circles have left the impression of "shooting allies from behind." he himself admitted: "i spoke out many times about the prime minister's problems, which caused a lot of dissatisfaction."

from 2012 to 2020, shigeru ishiba often criticized the domestic and foreign policies of the abe government, and criticized shinzo abe on issues such as moritomo academy and kake academy, which led to him being labeled as an "opposition party within the party." he was once marginalized within the liberal democratic party. shigeru ishiba has participated in the election of the president of the liberal democratic party four times, in 2008, 2012, 2018 and 2020, but all ended in failure. outsiders believe that this is mainly because he lacks allies within the party and is unable to stand alone.

in this liberal democratic party election, shigeru ishiba has changed. public reports show that they contacted lawmakers with whom they had had little communication before and made hundreds of phone calls to seek support from multiple parties. at the same time, he also met with party bosses to win their support. adding other factors together, shigeru ishiba was finally elected.

however, ishiba shigeru's process of planning personnel arrangements was not smooth sailing. according to xinhua news agency, sanae takaichi, who was reversed by ishiba in the final round, refused to serve as the general affairs chairman, one of the four important positions of the liberal democratic party, making a clear gesture of keeping a distance from shigeru ishiba. former economic and security minister takayuki kobayashi is a right-winger like takaichi. he received a lot of votes in the first round of the election and refused to serve as the head of the liberal democratic party's broadcasting headquarters (i.e., the propaganda minister).

it is reported that shigeru ishiba is seeking to appoint sanae takaichi for the upcoming house of representatives election. shigeru ishiba said at a press conference held at the liberal democratic party headquarters on september 30 that after taking office as prime minister on october 1, he will immediately form a new cabinet. he will deliver an inaugural speech on the 4th, dissolve the house of representatives on the 9th, and issue an election announcement for the house of representatives on the 15th. house of representatives elections will be held today. ishiba shigeru said, "it is necessary for the new regime to accept the judgment of the people as soon as possible."

public reports show that in ishiba's view, takaichi sanae's existence cannot be ignored. this is because in the first round of voting, takaichi sanae received the highest total number of local votes, indicating that she has a strong influence among party members and friends who are mainly conservative people. medium support is relatively solid. focusing on the house of representatives election, relevant sources said, "through personnel favors, we can pave the way to retain the conservative people who support gaoshi."

on september 30, 2024 local time, in tokyo, japan, the new liberal democratic party president shigeru ishiba attended the liberal democratic party board of directors. picture/visual china

the behind-the-scenes game among party bosses

ishiba shigeru's consideration of "rewarding based on merit" is based on the just-concluded presidential election of the liberal democratic party.

before this election, public opinion believed that shigeru ishiba, japan's minister of economic security sanae takaichi and japan's former environment minister shinjiro koizumi were leading the polls and were considered popular candidates for the new president. however, later the party's foundation was weak. shigeru ishiba defeated sanae takaichi to win, a reversal that surprised many people.

the election will be held on september 27. in the first round of voting, all candidates failed to obtain more than half of the support, so the top two vote-getters sanae takaichi (181 votes) and shigeru ishiba (151 votes) entered the second round. however, the situation reversed in the second round, with shigeru ishiba receiving 215 votes, higher than sanae takaichi's 194 votes, and was elected as the 28th president of the liberal democratic party.

expert analysts believe that ishiba shigeru's comeback is closely related to his political resume and the complex pressures inside and outside the liberal democratic party.

yao zeyu, an assistant researcher at the asia-pacific institute of the china institute of international studies, analyzed to a reporter from the beijing news: "shi pomao has been in politics for nearly 40 years, has rich experience, and has unique insights into domestic and foreign affairs; he has not been involved in the 'black gold' scandal, and is known for being relatively clean and close to the people. his image shows that for the liberal democratic party, which is deeply involved in the "black money" scandal, he is the ideal candidate to show the "reform" of the liberal democratic party and regain the trust of the people. in contrast, much of sanae takaichi's support within the party comes from the former abe. faction, and many of them are involved in the 'black gold' scandal."

"in addition, the liberal democratic party is about to usher in the house of representatives election, which is an important election to consolidate its ruling position. therefore, it needs a stable and eloquent new party leader to fight against the cadets. compared with shigeru ishiba, sanae takaichi is too conservative and tough, and koizumi shinjiro is inexperienced," yao zeyu said.

a new prime minister will often dissolve the house of representatives and hold an election when his approval rating is high when he first takes office. shigeru ishiba stated on september 30 that he would dissolve the house of representatives on october 9 and hold the next house of representatives election on october 27. the constitutional democratic party is the largest opposition party in japan. former prime minister yoshihiko noda, who has rich election experience and is eloquent, was just elected as the new leader of the party on september 23, which poses a major challenge to the liberal democratic party.

in addition to the house of representatives election, japan will also usher in the senate election next year. meng mingming, an assistant researcher at the institute of japanese studies at the chinese academy of social sciences, analyzed to a reporter from the beijing news that shigeru ishiba has served as secretary-general of the liberal democratic party and other important positions. he is known as a "policy expert" by the outside world and has a more stable political style. compared with gaoichi sanae, his policies are not enough. proficient and with strong right-wing overtones, ishiba is more supported by members of his party, especially senators who seek stability.

but for ishiba, the more important factor in this reversal is the change in the electoral environment. analysts believe that shigeru ishiba failed to challenge the liberal democratic party president four times before, largely because of the lack of support from major factions behind him. but this time, most factions within the party have been dissolved due to the "black gold" scandal, and the influence of factional politics on the election has weakened, allowing ishiba to realize his long-cherished political wish for many years.

"in this election, the role of factions has been weakened to a certain extent." meng mingming explained that the restrictions of factions have weakened, bringing the number of candidates to nine, a new high since 1972. yao zeyu mentioned that this election also saw two candidates from the same faction. for example, lin yoshimasa and kamikawa yoko belong to the former kishida faction, and motegi toshimitsu and kato katsunobu previously belonged to the original motegi faction.

yao zeyu emphasized that although the majority factions have been dissolved in name, their influence still remains. for example, running for president of the liberal democratic party requires the recommendation of at least 20 liberal democratic party members of congress: the 15 recommenders received by lin yoshimasa are mainly from the former kishida faction; among taro kono’s recommenders, the aso faction members account for the majority; and toshimitsu motegi’s more than half of the recommenders are from the original motegi school. "it can be seen that although the factions no longer exist in name, due to the convergence of policy positions and the difficulty in quickly disintegrating long-term interpersonal relationships, these factors affect the voting behavior of members of congress." she pointed out.

in this liberal democratic party presidential election, the influence of factions is still there, and the big bosses in the liberal democratic party who have been associated with factional politics for many years are considered to be the key to the election results. regarded by the outside world as party bosses are suga yoshihide, liberal democratic party vice president taro aso and kishida fumio.

according to analysis by yao zeyu and meng mingming, although ishiba shigeru only received 46 liberal democratic party mp votes in the first round of voting, he should have received the support of yoshihide suga and fumio kishida, two party bosses, in the run-off round. , mobilized members of their respective camps to vote for ishiba shigeru, so that the latter's congressional votes exceeded takaichi in one fell swoop, and he won the election of the new president in a reversal. at the same time, taro aso originally supported digital minister taro kono, but it was revealed on the eve of the vote that he had decided to support sanae takaichi, the late ally and former prime minister shinzo abe’s “disciple” from the first round. "this shows that yoshihide suga and fumio kishida worked together to win their struggle with taro aso, thereby pushing shigeru ishiba to the throne of the new president." meng mingming said.

beijing news reporter zhu yuehong

editor chen xiaoshu

proofread by li lijun