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today, the market bulldozed short sellers and continued to create all kinds of history. the chinext index, science and technology innovation 50, and beijing securities 50 simultaneously achieved their largest gains in history. as of the close, the shanghai composite index rose 8.06% to 3336.5 points, the shenzhen composite component index rose 10.67%, the gem index rose 15.36%, the beijing securities 50 rose 22.84%, and the science and technology innovation 50 rose 17.88%. the daily trading volume of a-shares reached 2.61 trillion yuan, setting a new record in history.

in september, the shanghai composite index rose by 17.39%, and the shenzhen component index rose by 26.13%.the gem index rose 37.62%. among them, the gem index hit a record high in monthly gains.

on the market, short-term funds continued to buy in the afternoon session, and dividend assets adjusted in the early session quickly increased and further boosted the index.

citic construction investment strategy chen guo said that this round of market is a rare market that has three factors: upward revision of profit expectations, falling risk-free interest rates and rising risk appetite. therefore, it is not a simple oversold rebound, but a reversal.in fact, the increase in the hong kong stock index can be considered to have established a bull market in a general sense. the a-share market under similar background and logic can completely consider this to be a bull market.

01

who is the focus of the transaction? reaffirm the core position of the four major sectors

after central bank governor pan gongsheng and china securities regulatory commission chairman wu qing announced a series of positive news at a press conference on september 24, the shanghai composite index hit the 3300 line from 2700 in five trading days. under such a fierce rise, investment the investor was confused for a while and didn’t know how to choose stocks. here, moore once again reiterates the core and leading role of the four major sectors.

first,real estate industry chain. the top management made it clear that it “should promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize” and “adjust the housing purchase restriction policy”, giving the final word to the entire market. after the meeting of the ministry of housing and urban-rural development made it clear that "every effort will be made to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and support cities, especially first-tier cities, in making good use of their autonomy in regulating the real estate market," the first-tier cities of shanghai, guangzhou, and shenzhen immediately implemented the new real estate policy package.

six departments including the shanghai municipal housing and urban-rural development management committee jointly issued the "notice on further optimizing policies and measures for the city's real estate market". while adjusting housing purchase restrictions, it will also optimize credit policies and adjust housing tax policies. from october 1, 2024 be implemented. following the pace of shanghai, guangzhou announced the complete cancellation of purchase restrictions, while shenzhen optimized the housing purchase restriction policy by district.

major cities have quickly introduced new real estate policies to boost property sales during the national day holiday. if the real estate markets in various places become active during the long holiday, especially the first- and second-tier real estate markets recover significantly, then the speculation in the real estate industry chain will continue to expand after the holiday, and will most likely last through the fourth quarter.

second,brokerage sector.just today, the brokerage sector collectively hit the daily limit, and the market relived the crazy market trend of brokerage firms in the second half of 2014.today, the transaction volume of citic securities, the leading brokerage, exceeded 10 billion yuan, and the transaction volume of oriental fortune reached a record 30.6 billion yuan.

the bull market flag bearers will receive special attention from big funds every time the market becomes bullish.with this violent outburst of brokerage stocks, securities etfs deserve continued attention. a pullback is a good opportunity to add positions.

third,for leading consumer stocks, mid-cap stocks will be better.driven by the liquor sector, consumer leaders who have been adjusting for a long time have launched a counterattack mode. wuliangye and china duty free have both risen by the daily limit for three consecutive days. this scene is truly unprecedented.

it should also be noted that today, kweichow moutai's volume has increased by more than 7%, reaching a plateau zone for more than three years, and it will face certain resistance if it goes up further. investors can consider more from the perspective of quantity and energy, discover consumer leaders with low valuations and oversold prices, and be wary of corrections in big players with large gains. looking back on the past, the recovery of leading consumer stocks will be a long-term process. there will be a need for consolidation after short-term surges. investors must do their homework and not be arrogant or impetuous.

fourth,in the "anti-involution" sector, we must pay attention to the rhythm. the core of this is the two sectors of lithium battery and photovoltaic.. longi green energy, tongwei, sungrow, jinkosolar, trina solar, ganfeng lithium, yiwei lithium, tianqi lithium and other leading companies have entered the market with strong rebound momentum after oversold. with the support of large funds, below, many stocks are advancing in dayang.

the crazier the situation, the more investors need to stay calm. after the lithium battery and photovoltaic industries are consolidated, recovery will truly begin, which will take time. although the stock price can skyrocket, performance still has to speak for itself. the long-term is worth looking forward to, so be patient.

02

be prepared for everything

judging from the two major experiences in 2007-2008 and 2014-2015, in the market, the real winners are always a minority, especially when the market ended in 2015, it was even more vivid.the key factor for successful investment is not that you can find the investment method with the highest return rate, but also that you need to better understand yourself, find an investment method that is suitable for you and is good at the same time, and be able to persist and practice it for a long time.

in the market, we must adhere to long-termism and value investing. at any time, investors should be sober and realize that ups and downs are very common in the market. where there are troughs, there will be peaks, and when there are underestimations, there will be overestimations. in the long run, only good companies can truly survive the bull and bear market.

current,for those who hold shares, they can continue to make profits during the valuation restoration. they need to look at the volume and the moving average. the big negative line is a signal to sell. for those who have taken short positions before, it is better to choose low-valuation varieties when entering the market.

previously, goldman sachs released a china stock strategy report saying that recent stimulus policies show that policymakers are paying attention to economic growth and capital markets. as far as the market is concerned, hong kong stocks are still more favored than a-shares because the latter's earnings forecast revision trend is relatively stronger, the valuation is more attractive in terms of both absolute value and relative discount to a-shares, and southbound capital flows have brought more supportive liquidity and potentially more favorable sensitivity to fed policy pulses during a u.s. rate cut cycle.

currently, hong kong stocks are rebounding relatively quickly.many state-owned enterprises listed in hong kong have lower valuations, real estate stocks in the hong kong stock market are more flexible, and h-share investors can be more active.

risk warning: the above content is only a personal opinion and is for communication and reference. all content is not used as a basis for buying and selling operations. intervention based on this is at your own risk. investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.