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on the last trading day of september, a-shares were in a frenzy.

on september 30, the three major a-share stock indexes rose favorably. the gem index made a strong move in the afternoon, once rising by more than 16%. more than 5,300 stocks in the two cities rose, more than 2,300 stocks rose by more than 10%, and 400 stocks exceeded the daily limit. the transaction volume of the two cities exceeded 2.59 trillion yuan, setting a new record for the highest transaction volume in history set on may 28, 2015.

amid the excitement, how the market will perform after the national day holiday has become the focus of investors' attention.

lin yuan, a well-known investor and chairman of linyuan investment, said in an exclusive interview with a reporter from securities times·e company: "the current trend of market operation is to develop in the direction of a bull market, but the specific trend still needs to pay attention to the influence of multiple factors."

in lin yuan’s view, the current market is far from the bull market stage. although it has surged in recent days, most investors are still losing money or have just recovered. “the real characteristic of the bull market is that most people start to make money, and at least 40% of them start to make money.” if 50% of people make profits from the market, that is a clear sign of a bull market. the market must rise to at least 4,500 points before we can talk about a bull market.”

for new investors who are running into the market, lin yuan reminds retail investors to maintain a cautious and rational attitude, pay attention to the company's fundamentals and long-term value, insist on long-term investment and diversify investment risks.

is the bull market coming?

regarding the question of whether a bull market is coming, which investors are most concerned about, lin yuan said that although it is impossible to give an absolute judgment, the current trend of market operation is to develop in the direction of a bull market, and the possibility is very high.

he pointed out that from the overall valuation of the market, the a-share market is still at a very cheap level, especially china's financial assets, which are seriously undervalued. this undervaluation provides a solid foundation for the market to rise.

lin yuan emphasized that bull market and bear market are not simple binary judgments, but a manifestation of a trend, determined by the overall operating conditions of the market. although a-shares have been rising for several days, lin yuan believes that most people in the market are currently losing money, which shows that the market has not truly entered a bull market.

according to lin yuan's conservative estimate, if more than 50% of people in the market can make money, then it can be initially considered that the market is in a bull market. although the shanghai composite index is an important market indicator, lin yuan mentioned that from the perspective of the operating rules of the stock market, 4,500 points should be regarded as a reasonable valuation position for a-shares and the threshold for entering the bull market. relatively speaking, market valuations below 4,500 points are relatively cheap.

the national day holiday has begun, and investors are undoubtedly most concerned about the market trend after the holiday. when talking about market trends, lin yuan said that the market is currently looking for direction, but the hope of a bull market has emerged.

he believes that although the specific trend of the market is difficult to predict, based on the current market environment and valuation status, it can be initially judged that the market is developing in a good direction.

"some positive factors are gradually accumulating, such as the increased participation of institutional investors and the improvement of market liquidity. these have provided strong support for the rise of the market." lin yuan said.

on september 30, the transaction volume of the two cities exceeded 2.59 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record. when talking about the current market trading volume, lin yuan said that although short positions were the right choice in the past, people's way of thinking is now changing, and some investors are starting to build positions.

lin yuan specifically mentioned the role of institutions, "institutions are becoming more and more influential in the current market. although retail investors still account for a large proportion of the market, the participation of institutions is increasing, which makes the market structure change." lin yuan predicts that a-share trading volume will remain at a high level in the next period of time (such as 10 days, half a month or a month).

regarding the duration and height of this round of market conditions, lin yuan said that it is difficult to predict accurately, but policy support is also one of the important factors driving the market rise.

lin yuan mentioned that the policy orientation is gradually shifting from focusing on financing in the past to focusing on returns, and this change will help enhance investor confidence. lin yuan pointed out that although it is impossible to accurately predict the specific trend of the market, based on current trends and policy support, it can be judged that the market will continue to rise and may even enter a bull market.

most optimistic about consumer and pharmaceutical sectors

when talking about asset selection and seizing opportunities, lin yuan mentioned that the consumer and elderly care sectors are the most promising, as these sectors represent the overall opportunities in the market.

liquor is a sector that linyuan has held for a long time. during the interview, he once again reiterated his favor for liquor. "liquor is a hedonic industry and has high value in itself. if the stock market rises, the liquor industry will definitely benefit and become the market leader."

in addition, linyuan is also optimistic about investment opportunities in other consumer and pharmaceutical sectors. he believes that as people's living standards improve and consumption concepts change, the market demand for these sectors will continue to increase. at the same time, with the continued development of the domestic economy and policy support, companies in these sectors will also usher in more development opportunities.

lin yuan also mentioned the opportunities for brokerage stocks in the bull market: "brokerage stocks will perform very well in the bull market, and there may even be stocks with huge gains."

"when selecting investment opportunities in these industries, we must focus on companies with core competitiveness, technological innovation capabilities and good management teams." lin yuan believes that these companies can maintain their leading position in fierce market competition and provide investors with bring stable returns.

demographic change is a factor lin yuan repeatedly emphasizes when judging industry prospects. lin yuan said that demographic change is an issue that worries him very much. "as the aging of the population intensifies, the number of young and middle-aged people is decreasing. this makes the demand for goods likely to decline, causing the benefits of some enterprises to be affected." lin yuan pointed out that this is what they need to consider when investing. an important factor. despite this, he expressed optimism about the long-term prospects of the a-share market. he believes that as long as china's economy continues to develop healthily, there will be opportunities in the a-share market.

recently, new policies on the property market have been released frequently, and the market is looking forward to the recovery of the real estate market during the national day. when talking about the relationship between the development of the real estate industry and the stock market, lin yuan said that the real estate industry and the stock market are interrelated, and the development of the real estate industry has an important impact on the stock market: on the one hand, the development of the real estate industry can drive related industrial chains the development of the stock market will in turn promote the rise of the stock market; on the other hand, the rise of the stock market can also enhance the wealth effect and consumption power of investors, thereby promoting the development of the real estate industry.

"the real estate industry currently faces some challenges and difficulties, including excessive housing prices, inventory backlog and other issues. however, with the adjustment and support of policies and the gradual release of market demand, the real estate industry is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound." lin yuan believes that the real estate industry the stabilization and recovery is a positive signal for the stock market, which helps to enhance investor confidence and the overall performance of the market.

investors should actively look forward and upward

as a-shares soared, hong kong stocks also continued to rise. on september 30, the hang seng technology index soared nearly 9% intraday, and finally closed up sharply by 6.7%. the turnover of the hong kong stock market that day reached hk$505.8 billion, breaking the historical record.

in lin yuan’s view, hong kong stocks and a-shares are complementary markets. when a shares rise, hong kong stocks will follow suit; and vice versa. he pointed out that the assets of hong kong stocks are relatively cheap, so they are very attractive. at the same time, the hong kong stock market has become more internationalized, attracting the participation of many international investors. this makes the hong kong stock market more flexible and diversified investment opportunities.

"although the hong kong stock market has performed poorly in the past period, with the continued development of the domestic economy and policy support, the hong kong stock market is expected to usher in more development opportunities." lin yuan suggested that investors can focus on those companies with competitive advantages. , hong kong stock companies with strong profitability to obtain better investment returns.

when talking about the u.s. stock market, lin yuan said that although the u.s. stock market has been in a bull market for the past ten years, it is already in a relatively overvalued state. "although there is some capital outflow to the u.s. stock market, the attractiveness of u.s. stocks is declining. once u.s. dollar interest rates are cut below normal levels, a-shares and rmb assets will benefit." lin yuan believes.

regarding the trend prediction of hong kong and us stocks, lin yuan said that it is difficult to give an absolute judgment. investors need to maintain a cautious and rational attitude, pay attention to the proportion of asset allocation, and do not invest blindly.

the a-share market is booming, attracting many investors to open accounts. for new investors, lin yuan said that investors should remain calm and rational and not be fooled by short-term market fluctuations. "the rise and fall of the market are normal fluctuations. investors should formulate reasonable investment strategies based on their own investment goals and risk tolerance. investors should pay attention to the long-term trends and fundamental factors of the market, and not be fooled by short-term market speculation. about." lin yuan said.

"investors should actively look forward and upward." when talking about investment mentality, lin yuan said that past market performance can only represent the past and cannot be used as a basis for future investment. in a bull market, investors should actively participate in the market and maintain high positions; in a bear market, they should maintain low or even short positions.

"human thinking has inertia and is difficult to change in a short period of time." lin yuan said that when bulls and bears alternate, investors often make wrong decisions due to inertial thinking. in order to avoid this situation from happening, investors should remain calm and rational, and adjust their investment strategies according to the actual market conditions.