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source: internet

hello everyone on the first day of the national day holiday! i believe everyone has seen the pre-holiday market trends, and this wave is indeed going up a bit!

there are many groups around me that haven't discussed stocks for a long time, but they have suddenly become excited in the past two days, and there are many jokes sent back and forth. some people opened accounts at the age of 90, and some went to securities companies with broken legs. in short, it was a joy.

source: internet

some people stepped up to enter the market, while others were short-term. some people even operated in the opposite direction, selling funds on september 23 and buying bonds on september 24. it was really a double kill of stocks and bonds.

source: internet

therefore, on the last trading day of september, both groups of people were in a mood, and those with short positions and those with full positions were waiting to see what the other party would do.

some people believe that the policies of lowering interest rates, lowering reserve requirements, and lowering thresholds will actually promote consumption, real estate and other real fields, and coupled with policy and financial support, there will be a wave of bull market. many of our user groups are optimistic that the price will continue to rise until the spring festival next year. exist. uncles who are optimistic about the stock market on the internet are talking about 10,000 points.

source: internet

one group of people are right to add positions, but another group of people will be at a loss. can they get in now?

they believe that the current transaction volume is almost the same as the past historical peak, and the high value of transaction volume is at the top, so they are not optimistic about the strong support in the future. entering the market now may only be to take orders.

source: internet

some of them tend to think that there will be a few days of stability after the national day, because there are still some funds that want to enter the market in september but have not yet entered the market. after entering the market, the market will begin to differentiate and start to fluctuate. some people enter the market and some people fall out. the bag is safe.

in fact, on september 30, some friends had already left the market and were relieved of their losses. they believe that a-shares are more about policies, and policy information has been released and the benefits have been reflected, and the follow-up remains to be seen.

why did it rise in the last week of september?

whether it will rise or not, how much it will rise, and how long the first wave of policy and sentiment can last are metaphysics, and this article is not intended as investment advice. why don't we go back to before the big rise and see how this wave of market is driven?

first, favorable policies promote:the people's bank of china announced that it would lower the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity; it also lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.2 percentage points, guiding the loan market quotation rate and deposit interest rate to decline. in addition, a series of major financial policies were introduced such as adjusting the interest rates of existing mortgage loans and creating stock buybacks, holdings, and refinancing. these policies directly brought incremental funds to the stock market and enhanced market confidence.

second, macroeconomic expectations are improving:after the federal reserve cut interest rates, the market's expectations for economic recovery have increased. economic recovery will drive corporate performance growth and increase the investment value of the stock market, thus attracting investors to buy stocks.

source: internet

third, the industry continues to benefit:various industries have successively introduced favorable policies, such as kweichow moutai's first-ever 3-6 billion repurchase and cancellation, which is good for the liquor sector and even the entire large consumption; china's resource recycling platform is expected to be established, which is good for steel and power battery recycling; photovoltaics, lithium mining and other new energy industries there are also constant benefits. the favorable policies in these industries have promoted the rise of related sectors, which in turn has led to the rise of the entire stock market.

fourth, market sentiment improves:the rise in hong kong stocks has had a positive demonstration and leading role in the a-share market, improving market sentiment. investor confidence gradually increased and funds began to flow into the stock market.

source: internet

in particular, foreign investors have expressed confidence in the chinese stock market. an overseas hedge fund person also told china business news: "the current sentiment of foreign clients is 'abc' - 'all-in buy china'. this change has been very obvious in the past week. hedge funds poured in first, and long-term funds may have to increase their positions later.”

fifth, pmi data:china's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (pmi) and non-manufacturing business activity index both rebounded in september, showing signs of expansion in economic activity, which enhanced market confidence in the chinese economy.

from the above aspects, the recovery of the stock market has a foundation, but it mainly relies on the release of emotions driven by policies, financial support and the relatively certain international situation. how the real economy will recover and the fundamentals of enterprises still need to be released after the national day data. test.

how will the market be after the national day?

after the national day, you can pay attention to several aspects of data and feelings, which should be helpful for judging the market outlook. to make money in the stock market, you must either rely on companies to make real money and increase their valuations, or make money from new funds entering the market.

first,real estate policies have been relaxed. except for beijing and shanghai, which still have some purchase restrictions, other regions have basically relaxed them., so what are the trading data of gold nine and silver ten? what is the trend in house inspections during the national day?

although the luxury housing market has always been okay, with more than 10 billion luxury houses sold in a certain location in shanghai in one day, has the demand for just-in-time/improvement housing increased? have house prices in the neighborhood around you stabilized?

source: internet

secondly,consumption data during national day or october.will the wave of people who have settled down before the national day, or just because they have recovered some of their paper wealth, increase their consumption during the national day? will per capita consumption increase during national day travel? has total retail sales increased?

you can even observe the upcoming double 11. what is the enthusiasm of merchants and consumers? has the overall transaction amount increased significantly? have major e-commerce platforms started actively publishing battle reports again?

source: internet

then,pay attention to macroeconomic indicators: cpi, ppi, pmi, gdp and other macroeconomic indicators have a direct impact on the stock market.for example, a pmi index above 50% is usually regarded as a signal of economic expansion and has a positive impact on the stock market; while a pmi index below 50% may indicate an economic contraction and has a negative impact on the stock market.

the service industry survey center of the national bureau of statistics and the china federation of logistics and purchasing released data on the 30th. in september, china's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (pmi) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the prosperity of the manufacturing industry has rebounded. although it is still below the 50% line of expansion and contraction, it has hit a new high in the past five months. in terms of enterprise size, the pmi of large enterprises was 50.6%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to remain in the expansion range; the pmi of medium-sized enterprises was 49.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points; the pmi of small enterprises was 48.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. 2.1 percentage points.

however, in september 2024, caixin's manufacturing and service pmis recorded 49.3 and 50.3 respectively. the manufacturing boom declined, the expansion of the service industry continued to slow down, and the market's optimistic expectations dropped to a historically low range.

as for the pmi index, the market still needs to observe multiple data sources to make a judgment.

at last,we still need to pay attention to sino-us relations and whether the federal reserve will further cut interest rates.

because the stability of sino-us relations directly affects investor confidence. will foreign investors really continue to enter the market to purchase chinese assets as they say?

previously, we launched the "dongfeng express". the united states responded to the people's liberation army's action of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles into the pacific. they received advance notice from china and believed that this was a positive action that helped prevent misunderstandings or miscalculations. pentagon spokesperson sabrina singer said, "we did receive some advance notice of the icbm test, which we think is a good thing. it's a step in the right direction and it does prevent any misunderstanding or misjudgment."

some people say that the truth is only within the range of cannonballs. the communication between the two parties still goes back and forth, which shows that rationality is still maintained.

next, there will be a us general election in early november. will there be new variables? investors will definitely need to pay attention.

will the fed cut interest rates further?let me briefly summarize some of the statements i have seen so far:

this time the federal reserve took the first step in cutting interest rates in a more aggressive way; the chairman of the federal reserve made it clear that they balance their concerns about growth and inflation, while in the past they preferred to suppress inflation; the direct reduction of 50 basis points in september was it has the meaning of insurance to avoid a hard crash in the economy. in other words, the fed's strong move is to ensure the soft decline of the economy.

judging from this sign, the fed cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth, so many institutions expect there will be room for further interest rate cuts before the end of the year. next year, the benchmark interest rate may eventually drop to 3.5%-3.75%.

source: internet

therefore, china and the united states, the two major powers, will make big plans and play big chess in stimulating the economy in the future.it does not even rule out continuing to provide more funds to the market. if there is too much water, the rising tide will naturally lift all boats. through stocks, you have the opportunity to enjoy the dividends of monetary policy.

from this point of view, both china and the united states g2 are working hard to improve the economy, which is definitely a good thing for restoring confidence.

in fact, a large part of the wealth in our hearts is book market value. market value is equal to the present value of future cash flows, and future cash flows need to be supported by confidence.

therefore, confidence is more valuable than gold and more important than anything else!

finally, i wish everyone a happy national day holiday! so, do you have confidence in the a-share market after the national day?