exactly | national day air ticket prices plunge again? how to buy more cost-effectively?
2024-09-30
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the national day holiday is approaching, and travel will become the “main force” in aviation consumption.
during this year’s national day peak season, civil aviation continues to show a trend of “volume increases and prices decrease”. according to a recent report released by the civil aviation travel service platform "air travel zongheng", during the national day holiday in 2024 (october 1 to october 7), the number of civil aviation passengers nationwide is expected to exceed 15.65 million, with the average daily passenger volume reaching 223 million, an increase of 7% year-on-year during the national day holiday in 2023, and an increase of 19% compared with the same period in 2019.
in terms of ticket prices, according to recent data released by multiple parties based on third-party travel platform data, national day air ticket prices this year fell by 10% to 20% year-on-year. according to the reporter's observation, this year, including the dragon boat festival holiday, the may day holiday in the first half of the year, and the peak summer season in july and august, civil aviation has basically shown a pattern of "increasing volume and falling prices". the specific reasons may have something to do with intensified competition and market recovery. . some people in the industry also said that 2023 will be the peak of travel, and the fares in the civil aviation market will also rise. this year, they have returned to normal, so there will be a slight decline year-on-year.
it is worth noting that recently, topics related to "air ticket prices are plummeting again" have become hot searches. on social platforms, reporters from the paper found that netizens’ complaints about national day fares were divided, with some complaining that travel fares continued to fall as the holidays approached. some people planned to wait for the price reduction, but only to find that the fares continued to rise. others were waiting for the opportunity to plan a trip that missed the buddha. have ticket prices really plummeted this year? is this normal? how can consumers get the most bang for their buck?
industry: the overall trend of air tickets this year is relatively stable, and the price dive is less than last year
on social platforms, some netizens have revealed that air ticket prices have plummeted by several hundred yuan before traveling during national day. among them, some netizens pointed out that four days before departure, the flight fares of other airlines on the same route were getting cheaper and cheaper, and some were already 500 yuan cheaper one-way. some netizens also said that during the national day holiday, the ticket price from xi'an xianyang to urumqi diwopu never dropped and became more and more expensive. as a result, the air ticket has really plummeted now, falling by more than 100 yuan. the difference from the previous highest price is more than 500 yuan. . some netizens pointed out that during the national day holiday, the international air tickets from guangzhou to bangkok were one and a half months apart, and the price was 400 yuan cheaper.
it’s not uncommon for short-haul international flight prices to “dive”, especially when the popular travel times are not october 1 or 2. a consumer told the paper that he was looking at air tickets from shanghai to tokyo on october 2 or 3 and found that a week before the national day holiday, the lowest price of many direct flights dropped to around 1,000 yuan, but then rose to 1,300 yuan two days later. -1,700 yuan. in addition, there are also low-priced air tickets with transfers to third places, 800 yuan one way, but it takes a long time. however, the consumer also said that the price of return flights during the national day is still strong, and the price of return flights on the 6th or 7th has not seen any price reduction compared with a month ago.
many netizens also said that "the bet failed" because they were waiting for air tickets to plummet, only to wait for prices to rise all the way. some netizens pointed out, "from mid-august to before the trip, i didn't see any drop, but it kept rising. in mid-august, i still remember that it cost more than 3,000 yuan to go back and forth to kashgar from shenzhen. now it's nearly 9,000 yuan for a direct flight."
at the same time, some netizens are still betting that air tickets will plummet this year and are still in a wait-and-see mode. some netizens said, "the more expensive the air tickets become, why don't you wait any longer?" . some hope to pick up a quick trip during the festival, "the main focus is on a buddhist trip, and i see that the fares for the outbound trip have plummeted, and the return air tickets and hotels have not been booked, and the guide has not been prepared."
what is the fare situation this year?
the paper reporter learned from multiple third-party travel platforms on september 29 that,this year's national day fares are generally relatively stable. a few routes have seen price dives, but most of them are more expensive the closer they are.. many people in the industry have also reported that the price plunge this year has been greatly reduced. however, some platforms also pointed out that the average paid price of national day air tickets recently monitored has declined slightly month-on-month.
some ota people pointed out that this year's national day holiday tickets are generally priced at 20% off in the early stages. if the tickets are sold well, they will be raised to full price, and if they are not sold well, they will be reduced to 40% off. last year, it was "price first". the first one was sold at full price, but the second one suddenly offered more cabins with less than 40% off, causing a large-scale plunge. some airline industry insiders pointed out that last year's air ticket price plunges were mainly concentrated in the middle and second half of the festival, while they were relatively stable before the festival.
“passengers’ willingness to travel during the national day holiday is still relatively strong. today, the overall market has returned to normal, and the overall passenger volume is expected to increase by more than 2 digits.” a management of a state-owned airline told the paper that the overall fares remain unchanged it is stable and the passenger load factor has also improved a lot. however, fares for some destinations have indeed plummeted, and the overall fare level has dropped compared to last year's peak.
some ota people pointed out that the national day fares this year are generally stable this year. booking now is more expensive than booking during the mid-autumn festival. many routes are even more expensive. economy class on some routes has been raised to full price, such as beijing-dali, beijing-dali on october 1. changsha et al.
xiao peng, a researcher at the qunar big data research institute, said, “compared with last year, the airline’s price strategy during the national day holiday this year is more robust, and discounted cabins have been released in advance, and a higher passenger load factor has been achieved during the train ticket sales period. "air ticket bookings have continued to grow in the past ten days, and prices have adjusted with market demand, so there has been no large-scale plunge before the national day this year."
how are air ticket prices determined? is it normal for prices to drop near departure?
according to the paper reporter’s understanding from various sources in the civil aviation industry, the pricing power of air tickets is in the hands of airlines. it is a market-based pricing mechanism. the fares mainly change in real time based on comprehensive indicators such as passenger load factor and total revenue. generally speaking, the national day holiday is a peak travel season, with peaks at both ends and stable in the middle. air ticket prices will also increase. the first and last ticket prices are very expensive, while the middle ticket prices are more favorable.
in the meantime, airlines will adjust fares from time to time in response to market supply and demand. many companies had previously predicted that demand would be high, so prices would be set higher. however, if the market heat and actual demand are not as good as expected, airlines will consider selling the remaining empty seats on flights at a reduced price, and the fares will be lowered accordingly. individual low-price tickets that sometimes appear during holidays are short-term promotions by airlines, mainly to attract passenger flow. they are usually on individual designated routes and single routes, and do not cover a large range.
the sharp plunge in air tickets during the mid-autumn festival and national day holiday last year attracted market attention. overall ticket prices increased year-on-year, but prices dropped significantly before departure. an airline executive told the paper that during the holidays, it is rare for ticket prices to plummet before travel. under normal circumstances in the domestic market, it is better to purchase within 14 days.
"last year it was a large-scale jump, this year it is a small-scale jump." civil aviation expert lin zhijie told the paper on september 29 that it is not normal for fares to plummet during the holiday season. the closer you are to travel, the more expensive the price is. it is normal.the plunge in fares is mainly due to airlines’ inaccurate market research and judgment. forward fares are relatively high and tickets cannot be sold, so they have to reduce prices in the near future.. some people in the industry pointed out that the plunge was mainly due to "excessive price increases" before the holidays.the market is less popular than airlines previously expected, as the last holiday of the year, discounts are given just before the holiday. if you can sell one more, it’s worth it. "
industry insiders also remind that tickets with different discounts usually have different refund rates. if consumers are still unclear about the refund, change and rebooking rates for air tickets, they can confirm and check through the booking platform. in addition to ticket prices, there are also some temporary itinerary changes in daily life. faced with this situation, consumers can also consider buying refund insurance when purchasing tickets, which can reduce certain losses.
shao bingyan, senior reporter at the paper
(this article is from the paper. for more original information, please download the “the paper” app)
