a "new battlefield" has been added to the middle east, and militarism has intensified the internal and external conflicts in israel.
2024-09-29
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li zixin china institute of international studies
in recent days, the situation between lebanon and israel has taken a turn for the worse. israel launched operation northern arrow in an attempt to severely damage hezbollah, push its southern front to the north of the litani river, and establish a military buffer zone on the lebanese side of the lebanese-israeli border. hezbollah fought with its last stand under the fierce israeli artillery fire and launched a large-scale counterattack against israel. the all-out conflict between lebanon and israel seems to have begun. the escalation of the situation has further deepened the spillover of the palestinian-israeli conflict, and regional security and stability have suffered another heavy blow.
the regional situation is accelerating and deteriorating
the deterioration of the situation in lebanon is accelerating. since the palestinian-israeli conflict suddenly escalated on october 7 last year, lebanon's hezbollah has launched a new round of armed confrontation with israel on the pretext of supporting hamas in the gaza strip, attacking the other side's military and civilians with rockets or suicide drones. incidents against targets occurred frequently, but never had a serious impact. since june this year, the military confrontation between lebanon and israel on the border has intensified. the two sides have accelerated the deployment of troops and weapons and equipment in the border areas between the two countries, and the frequency and intensity of armed confrontations have also increased to a certain extent. however, as of the end of july, the situation at the border between the two countries generally showed a cyclical pattern of "tension - calmness - then tension - then calmness again."
however, since israel crossed the border to attack the southern suburbs of the lebanese capital beirut on july 30 and targeted hezbollah military leader shukur, the tense confrontation between the two sides has spiraled, and conflicts and confrontations have continued. recently, thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies exploded in lebanon, and israel launched the largest air raid in the hinterland of lebanon since the end of the lebanese-israeli war in 2006. the scope of the attack was so wide and the intensity was rare in the past 20 years. in one day, more than 500 people died and more than 2,000 people were injured. it was called "the bloodiest day" by the media.
lebanon has become a new flashpoint of conflict. for most of the past 11 months, hezbollah has claimed that its actions are to support hamas; that is, if israel and hamas reach a ceasefire agreement, hezbollah is also willing to stop attacking israel. however, with israel's comprehensive air strikes on lebanon, hezbollah's position changed significantly and it announced that it would launch an "open war of reckoning" against israel. at the same time, israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu also stated that israel’s military operations against hezbollah will also deter hamas. if the previous lebanese-israeli conflict was a manifestation of the spillover of the current round of gaza conflict, then lebanon has become the "new battlefield" of armed conflicts in the middle east, and is triggering a wider spillover - shiites in syria and iraq the armed forces, as well as members of the broader regional resistance alliance, may take more actions to assist hezbollah in the future. more extensive and complex armed attacks in sharm and its adjacent areas may be inevitable.
a new round of humanitarian disasters is emerging
a regional humanitarian disaster is imminent. lebanon has just experienced a large-scale bombing of pagers and walkie-talkies, and the national medical system is under high pressure. the death and injury of more than 2,000 people in the past two days has further increased the burden on lebanese hospitals. recently, extremely bad precedents have emerged in a series of conflicts. indiscriminate and large-scale attacks seem to have become an option in conflicts.
in the case of pager and walkie-talkie explosions, more than 3,000 micro bombs were detonated simultaneously without being able to effectively screen the range of users and confirm the location and real-time environment of the pager. the extreme nature of this approach exceeds the recognition of the international community. know. in the past two days of air strikes, israel failed to effectively differentiate between civilian targets and military targets, failed to identify civilians and combatants, and minimized the time for civilians to evacuate. as a result, a large number of civilians, women and children were among the casualties.
since the escalation of the palestinian-israeli conflict, tens of thousands of people have been displaced in lebanon alone, and a new round of humanitarian disasters is emerging.
israel’s gains and losses
recent actions have helped israel re-establish regional deterrence. objectively speaking, the targeted killing of hezbollah military leader shukur, the assassination of former hamas politburo chairman haniyeh in tehran, and the explosion of lebanese communication tools have demonstrated israel's significant intelligence advantages and military capabilities in the middle east. . previously, because israel failed to achieve its set goals such as the complete eradication of hamas, its deterrence in the middle east has weakened. however, with the recent launch of a series of strong actions, regional countries and non-state military and political organizations have once again felt the powerful military power of israel.
still, it remains uncertain whether israel's military objectives can be achieved. looking back at the three major goals that israel set at the beginning of this round of palestinian-israeli conflict, namely, completely wiping out hamas, bringing back detainees, and improving the living environment, it can be said that none of the three major goals has been achieved, and it has not been possible to achieve it. in the foreseeable future, the possibility of achieving the above goals is still low. as far as operation northern arrow is concerned, although the goal is to allow residents of northern israel to "return safely to their homes", in fact, northern israel has suffered more rocket attacks than ever before, and hezbollah's all-out counterattack has led to israel's northern hinterland, including haifa, suffered widespread attacks, causing more casualties and property damage. and it is foreseeable that, in the context of intensified regional military confrontation, the security situation in the lebanese-israeli border area will further deteriorate.
in addition, as the conflict prolongs and expands, social and political conflicts in israel will further intensify as the conflict prolongs and expands. it has been nearly a year since the current round of palestinian-israeli conflict escalated. israel has continuously declared that it is "in the midst of a war." this has inevitably caused a serious impact on israel's domestic social and economic development. a large number of young people have been recruited into the army, and jewish and arab people in the country have been severely affected. the hatred and confrontation continue to deepen, and various economic and resource restrictions have also led to manpower shortages. as israel may send ground troops to lebanon in the future, israeli military casualties may increase, and the conflict between the military and the far-right political leadership group may further intensify. trapped in war for a long time but unable to achieve its set goals, the political divisions in israel are likely to intensify. for israel, whether the temporary victory on the current battlefield can be transformed into medium and long-term strategic gains is a huge challenge that it must face.
editor: tang hua, jiang xinyu, zhang yanling
