the dormant account was awakened, and the trading volume exceeded one trillion! a-share “rush to raise funds” is here
2024-09-29
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
at the social level, the stock market has not been so popular for a long time. in the past two days, according to multiple media reports, market ladies and courier boys have also started talking about stocks. the number of brokerage account openings has increased sharply. even the shanghai stock exchange has experienced system failures due to the high volume of transactions. all signs show that a shares have entered a bull market craze in just a few days. there is still controversy in the market as to whether a-shares have entered a bull market. but the trading volume does not lie. the trading volume exceeding one trillion for three consecutive days proves that investors have entered the stock market with "real guns and ammunition."
sleeping account awakened
a beijing youth daily reporter saw in multiple wechat communities that investors have opened accounts that have been dormant for many years and are preparing to inject funds to take action. there are also investors who say they are still waiting and watching, but they are already itching for the money-making effect. according to financial media reports, in the past two days at the vegetable market, i heard ladies talking about stocks again, and the courier boys also opened stock trading software from time to time. there has also been a surge in the number of people opening accounts in brokerage business departments. according to the staff of the hujialou sales department of a securities company, the number of investors who came to open accounts in the past two days has increased significantly. in the past, no one came to open an account. however, in the past two days, more than a dozen new investors came to open accounts. there are more gem and margin trading businesses. many investors feel that their confidence has been restored and they are ready to increase leverage.
according to brokerage staff, the biggest difference between this round and the past is that the number of active online account openings has increased significantly, and most young investors have chosen to open accounts through the internet. in addition, in addition to the strong willingness of investors to enter the market, institutional investors have shown an even stronger willingness. many institutions have expressed their willingness to increase their positions in the past two days, and the number of transaction execution applications for financial transactions has increased significantly.
it is worth mentioning that system failures caused by heavy stock trading that have not been seen by a-share investors for many years have reappeared. in early trading on september 27, a shares opened sharply higher across the board. however, many investors reported that after the opening of the market, the stock trading system of the shanghai stock exchange was unable to sell or cancel orders. a brokerage agency confirmed that "the company's technical monitoring found that there is currently a delay in order submission. various brokerages have given feedback, and it is a common problem in the industry." until the end of early trading, the shanghai stock exchange responded that after the opening of the stock auction today, transaction confirmation was unusually slow. the shanghai stock exchange has paid attention to the relevant situation as soon as possible and is investigating the relevant reasons. at present, the market has gradually returned to normal. many investors said in the stock bar: "it's been a long time since i saw it, the exchange was bought up by investors and collapsed."
the power of policy combinations is gradually emerging
the central bank announced on september 27 that it would lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points starting from the 27th (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). after this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be approximately 6.6%. this also means that one of the favorable policies announced by the central bank at the press conference of the state council information office on september 24 has been implemented.
on september 26, the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan the next economic work. this politburo meeting echoed the press conference of the state council information office on september 24 attended by the heads of the "one bank, one bureau and one conference", which fully demonstrated the central government's firm attitude towards stabilizing growth and significantly boosted market expectations. the meeting emphasized that efforts should be made to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and open up the blocking points for social security, insurance, financial management and other funds to enter the market. it is necessary to support mergers, acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, steadily promote the reform of public funds, and study and introduce policies and measures to protect small and medium-sized investors.
the soochow securities research report believes that a series of monetary and fiscal policy combinations have been implemented in recent days, demonstrating the determination of high-level officials to protect the economy and effectively improving the market's expectations for medium- and long-term fundamentals. the stock market will usher in a positive allocation window. .
liquidity leap forward
in recent days, a package of major policies covering currency, real estate and capital markets has formed a combination that has driven the stock market to surge. among them, the strength of two new monetary policy tools far exceeded expectations. the first phase of 800 billion yuan dedicated to the stock market has become the biggest highlight of this monetary easing policy. respondents pointed out that the new policy tools will quench the capital thirst of a-shares.
at a press conference held by the state council information office on the morning of september 24, pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, said that the first tool is the swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies to support qualified securities, funds, and insurance companies. by using the bonds, stock etfs, shanghai and shenzhen 300 constituent stocks and other assets held in hand as collateral, the central bank can exchange high-liquid assets such as government bonds and central bank bills from the central bank. pan gongsheng emphasized that the funds obtained through this tool can only be used to invest in the stock market. "we plan to scale the first phase of the swap facility to 500 billion yuan, and expand the scale in the future depending on the situation. as long as this thing is done well, the first phase will be 500 billion yuan, and another 500 billion yuan can be added, and even the third phase can be launched 500 billion yuan," pan gongsheng said.
the second tool is stock repurchase, shareholding increase and refinancing, which guides commercial banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders for the purpose of repurchasing and increasing their holdings of shares of listed companies. pan gongsheng introduced that the central bank will issue re-loans to commercial banks, with a 100% financial support ratio and a re-loan interest rate of 1.75%. the interest rate on loans granted by commercial banks to customers is around 2.25%. "the initial quota is 300 billion yuan. if this tool is used well, another 300 billion yuan can be obtained, and even a third 300 billion yuan can be obtained." this was interpreted by the market as "holding increase loan" and "repurchase loan." . pan gongsheng's statement was interpreted by some market participants as the central bank will provide "infinite bullets" for the stock market, clarifying the policy bottom line for a-shares.
wang ying, chief equity strategist at morgan stanley china, said in the latest comments that the people's bank of china's unexpected policy support measures will help improve investor sentiment and liquidity, and promote the performance of onshore and offshore markets in the short term. react positively. the size and long-term sustainability of the rebound will depend on the bottoming out of macroeconomic recovery and corporate earnings growth.
"the policy released by the central bank on the 24th exceeded market expectations. it can be said that this is the most comprehensive easing policy since 2015. although individual measures did not exceed expectations, the overall easing intensity was greater than our forecast. the comprehensive package is clearly aimed at restore market confidence," said zhu haibin, chief economist of jp morgan china and head of economic research for greater china.
can the market continue?
after four consecutive days of sharp gains, some investors who persisted have recovered substantially. new investors are looking forward to the post-holiday market. the "sweeping monk" of stock investors expressed the hope that the rise in a-shares this time will bring about a long-term slow bull market, rather than a sudden rise and fall.
a research report recently released by cicc pointed out that the current valuation of the a-share market is already at a relatively extreme position. the forward valuation of the csi 300 index is around one standard deviation of the historical bottom, and it has obvious investment appeal both horizontally and vertically; in terms of transactions and behaviors, there are also historically common bottom-biased characteristics. in the early period, the turnover rate of a-shares calculated based on free circulation market value was at a historical bottom level of about 1.5% (the turnover rate during the historical bottom period was around 1%-2%). ). against this background, the emergence of positive policy signals is expected to boost investor sentiment. there may be short-term twists and turns after the stock market rises, but the rebound is expected to continue. the stabilization of the market trend requires attention to subsequent expected changes in the fundamentals of listed companies.
some market observers pointed out that in recent days, many etfs targeting the csi 300 index have experienced sustained premiums during and at the end of the day, which is more obvious than other broad-based and industry-themed indexes. this shows that investors are optimistic about the subsequent performance of the market under the continued introduction of policies that exceed expectations, and are following the market trend through instrumental products. moreover, regardless of whether the csi 300 etf is large or small, there is a premium. it may be that institutional investors with larger funds have a greater chance of grabbing funds. it is expected that the probability of holding the base through the holidays is relatively high.
a survey recently released by the private equity ranking network shows that 65.82% of private equity investors recommend holding heavy or full positions for the holidays. they believe that the market has revealed its bottom shape. with favorable policies and improved sentiment, the market rebound will not be fast. finish. for post-holiday quotes? the survey results show that nearly 70% of private equity investors are optimistic and believe that driven by favorable policies, the market is more likely to stabilize at a low level and gradually rebound.
on the periphery, chinese assets triggered a “catch-up market.” the nasdaq golden dragon index soared more than 10% intraday, hitting a new high since may. a50 futures once rose by more than 3%. the rmb exchange rate rose above the "7" mark, rising more than 500 points during the session. on the evening of september 26, citic securities research published an article on the company’s official account with only one word in the title: “qian”.
gem hits record single-day gain
as of the close on september 27, the shanghai stock exchange index rose 2.89%, the shenzhen component index rose 6.71%, and the gem index rose 10%. the growth rate of the chinext index was the largest single-day increase in history, significantly exceeding the 7.16% increase on september 16, 2015. the chinext index's turnover reached 439.5 billion yuan throughout the day, and the transaction amount hit a record high. the whole-day turnover of the shenzhen component index was close to one trillion. gem heavyweight stocks collectively rose sharply, oriental fortune hit the daily limit, and catl rose by more than 10%. more than 5,200 stocks in the market rose, and more than 100 stocks reached their daily limit. the shanghai composite index rose by 12.75% this week, exceeding the 11.29% increase in the week of may 12, 2006, becoming the fourth largest weekly increase since 1999.
on the market, major financial and financial technology stocks continued to rise sharply, with citic securities, tianfeng securities, yinzhijie, anshuo information and other stocks reaching their daily limit. lithium battery, photovoltaic and other track stocks rebounded, leading pai technology, jinyang shares, king kong photovoltaic, flat and others to reach daily limit. liquor stocks remained strong, with sheshe liquor, gujing gong liquor, jiugui liquor, wuliangye, etc. hitting their daily limit. real estate stocks fluctuated and rose, with gemdale group, sunshine holdings, vanke a, financial street, etc. reaching their daily limit. in terms of sectors as a whole, energy metals, liquor, photovoltaics, securities and other sectors were among the top gainers, while a few sectors such as banks fell.
text/beijing youth daily reporter zhu kaiyun
(source: beijing youth daily client)
