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according to a report on september 21 on the website of the us bimonthly magazine "the national interest", ukrainian troops have been operating in russia for the past two months. after the ukrainian army launched a surprise attack on russian territory in august, hundreds of square kilometers of russian territory in the kursk oblast came under ukrainian control. but the most surprising thing is that the russian army has still not launched a large-scale operation to regain the lost territory.

the u.s. institute of war research commented in its latest operational assessment of the russo-ukrainian war: “according to reports, the russian authorities require the russian army to drive the ukrainian army out of the kursk oblast by mid-october 2024, and to fight against the kursk oblast by the end of october. establishing a 'buffer zone' in the northeastern border area of ​​ukraine bordering russia - it is unlikely that the russian army will complete this major task in such a short period of time."

according to ukrainian sources, the russian army has assembled nearly 40,000 troops in kursk oblast to prepare for the upcoming operation to expel the ukrainian army in the area. the kremlin appears to have set a deadline of mid-october to achieve this goal.

in addition, moscow hopes to establish a five-on-one force advantage before launching a counterattack—according to standard military theory, the attacker needs a three-on-one advantage to have a good chance of victory. but this seems unrealistic without russia withdrawing more troops from the ukrainian frontline - which was the original intention of ukraine's invasion of russia.

according to reports, the russian army has launched a counterattack against the ukrainian army that entered the territory, but has not achieved any major victory. they did recapture some settlements, but the ukrainian army managed to ensnare some russian troops through local counterattacks.

however, the russian army's large-scale operation to counterattack the ukrainian army has not yet come.

due to high casualty rates and difficulties in recruiting troops, it will be difficult for the russian army to maintain offensive operations in pokrovsk and vukhledar near the donbas while launching large-scale operations in kursk oblast.

one solution to this dilemma would be for moscow to increase its recruitment efforts. but the russian military is facing strong opposition from the kremlin.

the institute for war studies said: "russian president vladimir putin reportedly rejected a request from the russian defense ministry to announce another round of mobilization to make up for the loss of russian troops. this is likely to avoid the politics associated with involuntary reserve call-ups. cost. this limits russia’s mobilization potential.”