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liquor surges ahead of festival, has consumption surge started?

2024-09-27

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yesterday (september 27, 2024), liquor stocks led the consumer sector in the charge. kweichow moutai rose by more than 9%, returning to the 1,500 yuan mark, and many related etfs rose by the limit. it can be said that this time the food and beverage sector rose sharply , exceeded everyone’s expectations. can this be seen as a signal that the consumer sector is starting to rise?

food and beverage has been a sector that has suffered a deep decline since this year. many stocks have fallen by more than 30% since february this year, and their valuations once fell to the lowest point in the past three or five years. however, its fundamentals are strong. , so its stock price deviates from its fundamentals and has a relatively strong rebound demand.

from a recent perspective, the market generally believes that the following factors support the rising logic of the sector:

first of all, there are great benefits at the policy level

on september 24, the state council information office held a press conference. during the conference, the central bank and other departments "released a number of "major measures" such as cutting reserve requirements, cutting interest rates, and lowering existing mortgage interest rates, which attracted attention from all walks of life and greatly boosted confidence in the capital market. . from the perspective of industry logic, the decline in existing mortgage interest rates may have a boost to consumption, especially since there is a strong relationship between real estate and liquor and other consumption, so this series of policies is also considered to be beneficial to consumption, according to citic. investment securities estimates that existing mortgage interest rates reduce household interest expenses by an average of about 150 billion yuan per year, which can be converted into consumption power and inject a boost to the weak social economy. therefore, after the new regulatory policy is issued, it will have a positive impact on macroeconomic recovery and related consumption. expectations for repairs are elevated.

second, overseas interest rates are cut and liquidity improves