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dylan zhou/text on september 26, the stock market once again increased its volume and surged, and the bull market pressed the "confirm" button.

every ten years comes around. in 2004, 2014, and 2024, the "market cycle" once again showed the seemingly elusive "accident" and "inevitability", "destined" and "impermanence".

moreover, the upcoming bull market is likely to be a market-wide bull market.

because the operating status of the market is the result of the three-dimensional resonance of "time, price, and emotion". taking the most market representative csi 300 index as an example, it has lasted three years and seven months since the beginning of 2021, with a loss of nearly half, and market sentiment has almost collapsed. a more specific example is that kweichow moutai, the largest stock in the csi 300 index, crashed a few days ago, which clearly demonstrated the downturn in overall market sentiment.

therefore, the extremes of things must be reversed.

but in any case, by its very nature, the bull market is “made of money.” if otc funds do not enter the market, the stock market will not become "bullish".

this time, the "bull driver" is still the central bank: at the state council information office press conference on september 24, the governor of the central bank publicly announced "quantitative easing" for the stock market - through two targeted structural monetary tools. , targeted liquidity injection into the stock market, with the first batch amounting to 800 billion yuan, and the third batch amounting to 2.4 trillion yuan. the specific extent of the targeted injection "depends on the specific situation."

the central bank is whipping up its whip, and the stock market is surging. the effect was immediate: in the past three trading days, the market's "fire" was quickly ignited. the market keywords are general rise, skyrocketing, and heavy volume, and the shanghai composite index quickly returned to above 3,000 points.

moreover, the political bureau meeting of the cpc central committee on september 26 also clearly emphasized: efforts should be made to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and open up the blocking points for social security, insurance, financial management and other funds to enter the market; it is necessary to support mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, and steadily promote the reform of public funds and study and introduce policies and measures to protect small and medium-sized investors.

therefore, it can be said bluntly that the bear market is over and the bull market is back.

as for the current situation of the market and the possibility of future interpretation, the author has the following rough opinions for everyone to laugh at:

first, three consecutive days of heavy volume and skyrocketing growth mean that the market cost line is rising rapidly, which is similar to laying a "solid foundation" for a new bull market, blocking the room for future adjustments to the index;

second, varieties that have experienced large declines in the early stage or contain leverage can easily become the leading gains in the early stages of a bull market;

third, from the perspective of systemic valuation, the upcoming bull market will most likely be a comprehensive bull market, and the social wealth effect will be significant;

fourth, from a financial perspective, the central bank endorses institutions, and going long in the stock market is "answering the call" and "everyone adds fuel to the flames";

fifth, from the perspective of market gaming, considering the early restrictions on "short forces" such as ipos, shareholder reductions, and refinancing, the "multi-party forces" will be in a clear advantageous position for a considerable period of time. ;

sixth, the rmb exchange rate against the u.s. dollar is also strengthening. against the background of u.s. dollar interest rate cuts and the launch of a-shares, overseas funds will be transferred back to domestic settlement, and the carry trade between rmb and the u.s. dollar may be reversed, forming stronger support for a-shares. ;

seventh, in terms of general logic, the new round of bull market will be the spread of the "china special evaluation market", that is to say, the "china special evaluation logic" will spread from large state-controlled companies to the entire a-share market, to some extent it is similar to the “rmb asset revaluation” that year;

eighth, as regulators encourage listed companies to engage in "up-down, left-right" mergers and acquisitions (which can integrate upstream and downstream industry chains, as well as cross-industry mergers and acquisitions), the overall market activity will increase significantly;

ninth, considering the savings situation of residents in recent years, it is foreseeable that "savings relocation" will show its due power in this bull market;

tenth, from a more macro level, the new round of bull market is burdened with the combat mission of "anti-deflation", which also means the possibility of economic "reflation".