2024-09-26
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i can't sleep tonight.
on thursday, september 26, local time, the three major u.s. stock indexes opened higher collectively, with the dow jones industrial average up 0.55%, the nasdaq up 1.29%, and the s&p 500 up 0.76%.
the nasdaq china golden dragon index once surged by more than 12%, hitting a new high since may.
micron technology continues to ignite the ai storm
on september 26th local time, the three major u.s. stock indexes opened higher collectively, with the dow jones industrial average up 0.55%, the nasdaq up 1.29%, and the s&p 500 up 0.76%.
after the opening of thursday, us chip giant micron technology surged 20% at one point, the largest single-day gain since 2011. as of press time, it was still up more than 16%. driven by demand for artificial intelligence equipment, the company announced strong performance and profit forecasts on wednesday that exceeded expectations across the board. micron technology's performance usually sets the tone for the entire chip industry, as the company's products serve a wide range of customers in the personal computer, data center and smartphone industries. other technology stocks also opened higher, with asml up more than 4%, amd, tsmc, and arm up more than 3%, qualcomm and nvidia up more than 2%, intel and google a up more than 1%, and tesla up slightly.
fiona cincotta, senior market analyst at city index, said: “the optimism surrounding ai has waned in recent weeks. micron’s strong revenue guidance gave a slight boost to ai trading, reminding the market that ai remains relevant.”
micron technology's latest financial report shows that its adjusted revenue in the fourth quarter was $7.75 billion, while analysts expected $7.66 billion; its adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter was $1.18, while analysts expected $1.12; its operating cash flow in the fourth quarter was $3.41 billion, while analysts expected $3.63 billion; its adjusted gross margin in the fourth quarter was 36.5%, while analysts expected 34.7%; and its adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter was $1.75 billion, while analysts expected $1.58 billion.
(source of micron technology's fourth quarter financial report summary: micron technology's official website)
the earnings report mentioned that orders for a product called high-bandwidth memory have added a lucrative new source of revenue for micron technology and other chipmakers. the technology helps develop artificial intelligence systems by providing faster access to massive pools of information. in addition, micron technology said that the demand side has been outperforming the supply side, allowing micron technology to raise prices and obtain long-term guaranteed contracts, and products for 2024 and 2025 have been sold out.
"micron's fourth quarter revenue grew 93% year-over-year as robust ai demand drove strong growth in our data center dram products and industry-leading hbm chips," said micron ceo sanjay mehrotra.
manish bhatia, executive vice president of operations at micron, said micron's advantage is that it is the first chipmaker to reliably deliver more advanced memory. "as companies race to beef up their ai software and hardware and use more memory in the process, micron is well-positioned," he said.
regarding the performance guidance for the next fiscal quarter, micron technology expects adjusted revenue of us$8.5 billion to us$8.9 billion for the next fiscal quarter, while analysts expected us$8.32 billion; it expects adjusted gross margin of 38.5% to 40.5% for the next fiscal quarter, while analysts expected 37.6%; it expects adjusted earnings per share of us$1.66 to us$1.82 for the next fiscal quarter, while analysts expected us$1.52.
(source of micron technology's performance guidance for the next fiscal quarter: micron technology's official website)
regarding the next fiscal quarter, sanjay mehrotra said: "we are entering fiscal 2025 with the best competitive advantage in micron technology's history. we expect revenue to hit a record high in the next fiscal quarter, revenue to hit a record high in fiscal 2025, and profitability will also increase significantly."
micron technology's results typically set the tone for the entire chip industry because the company's products serve a wide range of customers in the personal computer, data center and smartphone industries.
in terms of economic data, the u.s. department of labor released data on thursday showing that the number of initial unemployment claims in the united states for the week ending september 21 was 218,000, the lowest since may, lower than the expected 225,000, and the previous value was revised from 219,000 to 222,000. bloomberg said that the lower-than-expected number of unemployment claims in the united states highlights the resilience of the labor market.
in addition, international oil prices continued to fall, with the main contracts of u.s. oil and brent oil both falling by more than 3%. as of press time, they were reported at us$67.44 per barrel and us$70.57 per barrel, respectively.
opec said in its annual report on long-term energy trends that "oil demand has not yet peaked". global oil demand is expected to continue to rise over the next 20 years, and although countries around the world are stepping up efforts to cut emissions, fossil fuels are expected to still account for nearly 30% of the global energy structure. by 2050, global oil demand is expected to increase from 102.2 million barrels per day last year to 120.1 million barrels per day.
chinese assets explode
the a-share market rose sharply for three consecutive days. after being positively affected by the news of an important meeting in the afternoon, the shanghai composite index successfully broke through 3,000 points; the shenzhen component index and the chinext index both recorded a significant increase of more than 4%. at the same time, the trading volume of the two markets exceeded the trillion yuan mark for two consecutive days; the hong kong stock market also ushered in an explosion, with the hang seng index soaring more than 4%, approaching the 20,000 point mark, and the hang seng technology index soaring more than 7%, both of which set new records since this round of rebound.
after the u.s. stock market opened, chinese stocks generally rose. the nasdaq china golden dragon index once soared by more than 12% in the morning, hitting a new high since may. new oriental, tencent music, and bilibili rose by more than 16%, miniso and iqiyi rose by more than 15%, jd.com and manbang rose by more than 13%, and pinduoduo and vipshop rose by more than 11%.
in addition, boosted by the favorable policy combination of my country, chinese asset etfs also rose after the opening of us stocks. the 3x long ftse china etf-direxion rose by more than 24%, the 2x long csi 300 etf-direxion rose by more than 17%, the 2x long ftse china 50 etf-proshares rose by more than 16%, the china internet etf-kraneshares rose by more than 11%, and the china large cap etf-ishares rose by more than 8%.
in addition, the ftse a50 rose more than 3% in the night session.
the offshore rmb rose by more than 400 points against the us dollar, breaking through "7" again.
on the news front, on the evening of september 26, the central financial and economic affairs commission and the china securities regulatory commission jointly issued the "guiding opinions on promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market" (hereinafter referred to as the "guiding opinions"), which focused on proposing three measures: continuously optimizing the capital market ecology, vigorously developing equity-based public funds, and focusing on improving the supporting policy systems for various types of medium- and long-term funds entering the market.
the issuance of the guiding opinions provides a clear "action program" for accelerating the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market and improving the coordinated investment and financing functions of the capital market. the reporter learned from relevant regulatory personnel that the guiding opinions aims to strengthen top-level design and form a joint force to promote a significant increase in the scale and proportion of medium- and long-term capital investment, a more reasonable structure of capital market investors, a comprehensive strengthening of the long-term nature of investment behavior and the inherent stability of the market, and a steady increase in investor returns, forming a new situation in which medium- and long-term funds play a better leading role, the development of both ends of investment and financing is more balanced, and the functions of the capital market are better played.
on the same day, the people's bank of china held a video conference across the entire bank. the meeting stressed the need to speed up the release of financial incremental policy measures and implement each policy measure item by item. it is necessary to strengthen departmental coordination, set up a special working group, and work together across the entire bank to effectively promote the sustained recovery of the economy and high-quality development of finance.
the central bank's latest move should help improve investor sentiment and liquidity, and drive a positive reaction from both onshore and offshore markets in the short term, according to morgan stanley's china equity strategy released on wednesday.