us media: why hasn’t the russian army recaptured kursk yet?
2024-09-26
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reference news reported on september 27according to a report on the website of the u.s. bimonthly magazine national interest on september 21, ukrainian troops have been active in russia for the past two months. after the ukrainian army launched a surprise attack on russian territory in august, hundreds of square kilometers of russian territory in kursk oblast are under ukrainian control. but the most surprising thing is that the russian army has not yet launched a large-scale operation to retake the lost territory.
in its latest operational assessment of the russian-ukrainian war, the institute for the study of war in the united states commented: "russian authorities reportedly require the russian military to drive ukrainian troops out of kursk oblast by mid-october 2024 and to establish a 'buffer zone' in the northeastern border area of ukraine bordering russia by the end of october - a major task that the russian military is unlikely to accomplish in such a short period of time."
according to ukrainian sources, the russian military has assembled nearly 40,000 troops in kursk oblast in preparation for an upcoming operation to expel ukrainian troops from the region. the kremlin appears to have set a deadline of mid-october to achieve this goal.
moreover, moscow wants to establish a five-to-one troop advantage before launching a counterattack—standard military theory requires a three-to-one advantage to have a good chance of success. but this seems unrealistic without withdrawing more russian forces from the ukrainian front—which is exactly why ukraine invaded russia in the first place.
the report said that the russian army had launched a counterattack against ukrainian troops that entered the territory, but did not achieve any major victory. they did recapture some settlements, but the ukrainian army successfully lured some russian troops through local counterattacks.
however, the large-scale russian counterattack against the ukrainian army has not yet arrived.
due to high casualty rates and difficulties in recruiting soldiers, it will be difficult for the russian army to maintain offensive operations in pokrovsk and vukhledar near donbass while launching a large-scale operation in kursk oblast.
one solution to this dilemma is for moscow to step up its conscription efforts. but the russian military is facing strong opposition from the kremlin.
the institute for the study of war said: "russian president vladimir putin reportedly rejected a request from the russian ministry of defense to declare another round of mobilization to make up for the russian military's troop losses. this is likely to avoid the political costs associated with involuntary reserve call-ups. this limits russia's mobilization potential." (compiled by wang haifang)
