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【text/observer network qi qian】since the israeli army launched the most violent attack on lebanon since the 2006 lebanon-israel war on september 23, the situation between lebanon and israel has deteriorated rapidly in just a few days. as cross-border attacks by both sides increase, the international community is increasingly concerned about the outbreak of a full-scale war between lebanon and israel and the middle east.

on the 25th local time, israel continued to launch large-scale attacks in many places in lebanon. on the same day, hezbollah in lebanon launched a ballistic missile for the first time at the headquarters of the israeli intelligence and secret service (mossad), which was intercepted by the israeli army. according to lebanese data, as of the afternoon of the 25th, the israeli air strikes had killed 1,247 people, injured 5,278 people, and caused more than 100,000 people to be displaced.

"all-out war is possible," us president biden warned on the same day. at the same time, leaders of jordan, egypt, iraq, the united states, france and other countries urgently called on all parties to exercise restraint. iran's foreign minister pointed out that if a full-scale war breaks out, iran "will not stand idly by."

but at the same time, israeli military leaders have repeatedly hinted at a ground offensive against lebanon. on the 25th, israeli chief of staff herzi halevi said during an inspection of the northern border that the israeli army was "preparing for a maneuver," which means that the soldiers' boots "will go deep into enemy territory." just a few hours ago, the israeli army announced that it was calling up two reserve brigades to deal with the conflict with hezbollah.

is the israeli army about to launch a ground operation?

a statement released by the israel defense forces on september 25 local time showed that the israeli army is preparing for a possible ground operation in lebanon.

the statement said that israeli chief of staff herzi halevi told troops during an inspection of the northern border that day: "listen to the sound of fighter planes overhead; we have been launching attacks all day long. this is both to prepare for your possible entry (to lebanon) and to continue to fight hezbollah."

he told troops that "we are preparing a movement" to allow 60,000 israelis to return to their homes in the north.

“this means that your boots will go deep into enemy territory, into villages that hezbollah has prepared as large military outposts. they are trying to use underground infrastructure, assembly points and launch pads to penetrate deep into our territory and launch attacks on israeli civilians,” halevy said. “you will show hezbollah what it means to face a professional, skilled and experienced force. you are much stronger and more experienced than them. you will go in there, destroy the enemy and completely destroy their infrastructure.”

according to cnn, this is the second time on the 25th that senior israeli generals have said that ground operations may be imminent. earlier, uri goldin, commander of the israeli northern command, said that military operations against lebanon have entered "different stages" and soldiers "need to be fully prepared, participate in exercises and take action."

israeli defense minister yoav galant also said recently, "when the order is given, the entire system must be activated, so we must be prepared."

cnn analysis believes that it is not clear whether israel intends (or deems it necessary) to launch a ground operation in lebanon. but experts say that if israel goes to war with hezbollah, israel will face a greater threat than hamas and the cost will be equally huge.

"hezbollah is not hamas," yul guzansky, a senior fellow at the tel aviv institute for national security studies and a former member of israel's national security council, told cnn, adding that hezbollah is a "state within a state" with more advanced military capabilities.

lebanon and israel continue to take action, and the conflict continues to escalate

idf spokesman daniel hagari said on the 25th that the israeli army has launched fierce attacks on hezbollah in lebanon over the past three days, attacking a total of 2,000 targets. according to the israeli army, 70 hezbollah intelligence stations were also attacked in the latest round of attacks on the 25th.

on the same day, lebanon's hezbollah announced that it had launched a ballistic missile at the headquarters of the israeli intelligence and secret service (mossad) in support of palestinians in the gaza strip and "to defend lebanon and its people." the israeli military said the missile was successfully intercepted.

cnn said that this was an unprecedented attack launched by hezbollah against israel, which penetrated deep into the heart of israel and marked a new stage in the escalation of the conflict between the two sides. john kirby, a spokesman for the white house national security council, said in an interview with cnn that hezbollah's move to launch ballistic missiles was "deeply worrying."

the israel defense forces later announced that it was calling up two reserve brigades to respond to a conflict with hezbollah in lebanon.

the israeli army said in a statement: "based on the assessment of the situation, we have decided to recruit two reserve brigades to perform combat missions in the northern region. this will enable us to continue to fight the 'terrorist organization' hezbollah, protect the citizens of the state of israel, and create conditions for the safe return of northern residents to their homes."

as the situation continues to escalate, israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu has postponed his trip to new york to attend the un general assembly. the prime minister's office said netanyahu was originally scheduled to fly to new york on the 25th, but now postponed it to the 26th. he is expected to deliver a speech at the un general assembly on the 27th and return to israel on the 28th.

it is worth mentioning that the israel defense forces said in a brief statement issued in the early morning of the 26th: "not long ago, after discovering suspicious movements in the lebanese border area, israel defense forces soldiers opened fire on them. soldiers are currently searching the area." the statement did not provide further details.

biden: all-out conflict is possible

in an interview with abc on the 25th, us president biden said that there is a possibility of a "full-scale war" in the middle east, but there is still a chance to pull back from the brink, and reiterated the importance of resolving the palestinian-israeli conflict through a two-state solution. "i don't want to exaggerate, but it is possible. if we can solve the lebanese problem, then we can turn to the west bank problem and then the gaza problem."

on the same day, us secretary of state blinken delivered a speech at the un general assembly, saying that there is "a great risk of escalation" in the middle east and that the united states is making "tireless" diplomatic efforts to prevent "all-out war."

two other us officials told cnn that dozens of us troops have been deployed to cyprus as tensions escalate sharply to prepare for a series of contingency measures, including the evacuation of us citizens after a full-scale war breaks out. a pentagon spokesman previously acknowledged that the us military will deploy "a small number of us military personnel" to the region "out of an abundance of caution."

the british government has recently announced that it will send 700 soldiers to cyprus to urgently evacuate british citizens in lebanon if necessary.

meanwhile, three people familiar with the matter said the united states is urgently developing a plan to ease tensions between israel and hezbollah. the sources said u.s. officials are working with officials from france and other countries to try to reach a diplomatic agreement to suspend fighting on israel's northern border while resuming a ceasefire and hostage talks in gaza.

an israeli official revealed that netanyahu has approved his government's participation in us-brokered ceasefire efforts in lebanon. the official said netanyahu agreed, but only if any agreement allows israeli civilians to return to their homes in northern israel.

the pentagon has sought to distance itself from israel's escalating cross-border attacks. pentagon spokeswoman sabrina singer said the u.s. military did not provide intelligence support for israel's operations in lebanon, adding that the united states is "working full steam ahead" to promote a diplomatic solution.

the day before, lebanese foreign minister abdullah bou habib said at an event at the carnegie endowment for international peace that the us statement was "not strong enough" and that he believed the us was "the only country that could play a role in the middle east and lebanon" and hoped that the us could strengthen its diplomatic efforts. he also revealed that he was sure that iran did not want to be involved in the conflict.

all parties spoke out urgently, iran: will not stand idly by

jordan, egypt andiraqthe three foreign ministers "condemned israel's aggression against lebanon" in a joint statement on the 25th, and warned that israel was pushing the region into "total war." the day before, they met during the un general assembly and called on the international community and the security council to "assume relevant responsibilities to stop the war."

in their statement, they stressed that "israel bears full responsibility for the deterioration of the situation, which will have serious consequences for the entire region" and that to prevent the "continued dangerous escalation in the middle east, it is first necessary to stop israel's aggression against gaza."

"there can be no war in lebanon," french president emmanuel macron told the un general assembly. "that is why we urge israel to stop escalating the situation in lebanon. we also urge hezbollah, which has long been in danger of dragging lebanon into war, to stop firing missiles at israel. at the same time, israel cannot extend its actions into lebanon without consequences."

he revealed that he had sent his foreign minister to lebanon as part of an effort to prevent war from breaking out.

un secretary-general guterres issued a warning that day, saying that "lebanon is falling into hell" and "has reached the edge of a cliff." he pointed out that lebanon is experiencing the bloodiest period in a "generation" and that military escalation is not in anyone's interest. he called on both sides to "stop killing" and make every effort to avoid a full-scale war.

"let us appeal to all parties with one clear voice: stop the killing and destruction, reduce the threats, and pull back from the brink," he said at an emergency meeting of the un security council. "we must avoid all-out war at all costs. it will certainly be a total disaster. the lebanese people, the israeli people, and the people of the world cannot let lebanon become another gaza."

according to the iranian state news agency irna, iran's supreme leader khamenei admitted on the 25th that the israeli air strikes killed hezbollah's top brass, which was "definitely a loss" for the organization, but not enough to destroy the organization. he also believed that the united states was responsible for the israeli attack and said that the biden administration was "pretending not to be involved" on the one hand, but on the other hand needed israel to win the war before the general election in november this year.

iranian foreign minister abbas araghchi later told the un general assembly that tehran would not remain indifferent if a full-scale war broke out between israel and hezbollah in lebanon. he stressed that iran "will do its utmost to stand with the lebanese people" and support hezbollah's "just cause of defending lebanon" and resisting israel.

he also urged the security council to intervene and restore regional security, warning that without action the region would risk all-out conflict.

more than 100,000 people forced to flee in lebanon

last week, a large-scale explosion of communications equipment occurred in lebanon, further deteriorating the relationship between lebanon and israel, which have been exchanging fire since the gaza war. as cross-border attacks increase, the international community is increasingly concerned about the outbreak of a full-scale war between lebanon and israel and the middle east.

on the 23rd, the israeli air force launched the most violent attack on lebanon since the 2006 lebanon-israel war. on the afternoon of the 25th, nasser yassin, minister of environment of the lebanese caretaker government and chairman of the government emergency committee, revealed that the israeli air strikes had killed 1,247 people and injured 5,278 others. more than 100,000 people in southern lebanon were displaced, and the government has arranged more than 300 emergency resettlement sites.

hezbollah confirmed on the same day thatthe head of hezbollah's missile force, ibrahim mohammed al-kabisi, was killed in the airstrike.

as the conflict between israel and hezbollah escalates, residents in lebanon are scrambling for their lives. the main road leading to the lebanese-syrian border is crammed with hundreds of cars as the number of refugees continues to grow, fleeing in a "desperate" manner, the united nations high commissioner for refugees reported on the 25th.

"hundreds of vehicles are lined up at the syrian border, and many people are forced to arrive on foot, carrying what they can," the unhcr said. "a large group of people, including women, children and babies, have spent the night outdoors in the cold weather and are now waiting in line. some have also been injured in israeli air strikes." the agency said it is providing assistance to refugees at the border.

lin jian, spokesman for the ministry of foreign affairs, pointed out on the 24th that china is highly concerned about the current tension between lebanon and israel and is deeply shocked by the large number of casualties caused by the relevant military operations. china opposes any violation of lebanon's sovereignty and security and opposes and condemns any action that harms innocent civilians. we call on the relevant parties to take measures to immediately ease the situation, prevent further escalation of regional tensions, and effectively safeguard peace and stability in the middle east and the safety of people's lives.

on the 25th, lin jian reiterated that china calls on relevant parties to take measures to immediately ease the situation, prevent further escalation of regional tensions, and effectively safeguard peace and stability in the middle east and the safety of people's lives. china is willing to continue to make unremitting efforts with the international community in this regard.

according to the un website, the un security council is currently holding an emergency meeting on the lebanon issue.

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